SFFA
ECNL Regional League Girls · Florida GU17 · 8 teams · South Florida Football Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Miami Dade College, Field 2 ↗ far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.5 for, 1.1 against · 2.20 expected points)
| Season so far | SFFA | Athletic Club Florida Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-1 | 2-0-3 |
| Points per game | 2.25 | 1.20 |
| Goals for / game | 3.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals against / game | 0.3 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W W | W L L W L |
| Biggest win | 9–0 vs Athletic Club Florida | 4–2 at AC Florida West |
| Worst loss | 0–1 at Cape Coral SA | 2–4 vs SWFL PREMIER FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.63 | +0.03 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.58 | +0.62 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 1–0 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami (W)
Common opponents: Cape Coral SA — we 0–1; they 3–2. ACF Sunrise — we 4–0; they 0–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at Cape Coral SA.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 68% / draw 17% / loss 15%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Miami Dade College.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Athletic Club Florida Miami game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SFFA – Athletic Club Florida Miami) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.40 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.40 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 4th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.80 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 32%
- 2nd 62%
- 3rd 5%
- 4th 1%
- 5th <1%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.79 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 3.00 (+0.75) | 1st (2.48) | 33 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
How the results connect
9 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link SFFA to Athletic Club Florida Miami through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.08 · 7th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 26 12:00 PM no score posted |
AC Florida West 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
JetBlue Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–0 | 2.29 | 2.26 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Athletic Club Florida Miami 5th · 2-0-3 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Miami Dade College |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–1 | 2.20 | 2.25 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM |
Athletic Club Florida 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -20 |
Away far trip
Mullins Park · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
4–0 | 2.87 | 2.34 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 02:30 PM |
Team Boca 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -7 |
Home Canyon District Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
3–0 | 2.68 | 2.38 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 6 01:00 PM |
SWFL PREMIER FC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +17 |
Away far trip
Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.48 | 2.28 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 02:00 PM |
SWFL PREMIER FC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +17 |
Home Canyon District Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–1 | 1.79 | 2.23 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 12:00 PM |
Cape Coral SA 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +0 |
Home Canyon District Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.45 | 2.25 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 09:00 AM |
ACF Sunrise 4th · 2-1-1 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–0 | 2.22 | 2.25 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 PM |
AC Florida West 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -1 |
Home Canyon District Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
2–0 | 2.48 | 2.27 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 01:00 PM |
Team Boca 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -7 |
Away Fau Glades |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
2–0 | 2.54 | 2.29 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.64 | -0.04 | 100% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AC Florida West · Sun Oct 25 vs ACF Sunrise · Sat Mar 6 vs SFFA See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | SFFA | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | -0.58 | -0.08 | 100% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at AC Florida West · Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Cape Coral SA | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 13 | +0 | 12 | 2.00 | WWLWL | +0.02 | -0.02 | 87% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at ACF Sunrise · Sat Oct 24 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Florida West See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | ACF Sunrise | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 | 1.75 | WWDL | -0.32 | +0.19 | 38% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Aug 23 at AC Florida West · Sat Sep 12 vs Cape Coral SA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Athletic Club Florida Miami | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLLW | +0.62 | -0.34 | 64% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Team Boca · Sat Oct 24 vs SFFA · Sun Oct 25 vs Team Boca See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Team Boca | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 4 | 1.00 | LLWD | +0.35 | +0.03 | 5% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sun Sep 13 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | AC Florida West | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 3 | 0.60 | LLWLL | -0.17 | +0.19 | 5% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 23 vs ACF Sunrise · Sat Sep 26 vs SFFA · Sat Oct 24 at SWFL PREMIER FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Athletic Club Florida | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 21 | -20 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.62 | +0.16 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Sep 13 at Team Boca · Sat Oct 24 vs Team Boca See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.89 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.