SWFL PREMIER FC
ECNL Regional League Girls · Florida GU17 · 8 teams · Florida Premier FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Lakewood Ranch Park, Field 2 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.7 for, 1.4 against · 2.50 expected points)
| Season so far | SWFL PREMIER FC | AC Florida West |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-0 | 1-0-4 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| Goals for / game | 4.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals against / game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | L L W L L |
| Biggest win | 9–2 vs Cape Coral SA | 4–0 vs Athletic Club Florida |
| Worst loss | — | 2–4 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.87 | -0.22 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.64 | -0.17 |
Already played this season: Sun Oct 18 3–2 at AC Florida West (W)
Common opponents: Team Boca — we 4–1; they 0–1. Cape Coral SA — we 9–2; they 0–1. Athletic Club Florida Miami — we 4–2; they 2–4. Athletic Club Florida — we 4–0; they 4–0.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 80% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the AC Florida West game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SWFL PREMIER FC – AC Florida West) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.67 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.50 PPG |
1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 | 1st— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 68%
- 2nd 31%
- 3rd 1%
- 4th <1%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
11 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link SWFL PREMIER FC to AC Florida West through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.04 · 6th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
AC Florida West 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -1 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
3–1 | 2.50 | 2.92 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
ACF Sunrise 4th · 2-1-1 · GD -1 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.44 | 2.85 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 6 01:00 PM |
SFFA 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +13 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–2 | 1.32 | 2.66 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 11:00 AM |
ACF Sunrise 4th · 2-1-1 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–1 | 2.22 | 2.61 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 02:00 PM |
SFFA 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +13 |
Away far trip
Canyon District Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.02 | 2.45 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 01:00 PM |
Team Boca 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Fau Glades |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
3–1 | 2.58 | 2.46 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 01:00 PM |
Athletic Club Florida 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -20 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
6–0 | 2.95 | 2.50 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 01:00 PM |
Athletic Club Florida Miami 5th · 2-0-3 · GD -1 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.42 | 2.50 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM |
Cape Coral SA 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Cape Coral Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
3–1 | 2.19 | 2.48 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.64 | -0.04 | 100% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AC Florida West · Sun Oct 25 vs ACF Sunrise · Sat Mar 6 vs SFFA See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | SFFA | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | -0.58 | -0.08 | 100% | 1.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at AC Florida West · Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Cape Coral SA | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 13 | +0 | 12 | 2.00 | WWLWL | +0.02 | -0.02 | 84% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at ACF Sunrise · Sat Oct 24 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Florida West See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | ACF Sunrise | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 | 1.75 | WWDL | -0.32 | +0.19 | 40% | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Aug 23 at AC Florida West · Sat Sep 12 vs Cape Coral SA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Athletic Club Florida Miami | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLLW | +0.62 | -0.34 | 65% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Team Boca · Sat Oct 24 vs SFFA · Sun Oct 25 vs Team Boca See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Team Boca | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 4 | 1.00 | LLWD | +0.35 | +0.03 | 5% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sun Sep 13 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | AC Florida West | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 3 | 0.60 | LLWLL | -0.17 | +0.19 | 6% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 23 vs ACF Sunrise · Sat Sep 26 vs SFFA · Sat Oct 24 at SWFL PREMIER FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Athletic Club Florida | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 21 | -20 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.62 | +0.16 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Sep 13 at Team Boca · Sat Oct 24 vs Team Boca See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.89 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.