TableChase Clubs

Virginia Valor FC

ECNL Regional League Boys · Virginia BU16 · 9 teams · Virginia Valor FC (all teams)

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9th
0-1-5 record · 6 played
0.17 points per game
-25 goal diff · 4–29
LLDLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.5
+0.85 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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Virginia Valor FC
9th · 0.17 PPG
vs
Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL
6th · 0.80 PPG

SYA Sports Park, Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.7 for, 3.1 against · 0.73 expected points)

Season so farVirginia Valor FCGreat Falls Reston Soccer Club RL
Position9th6th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-51-1-3
Points per game0.170.80
Goals for / game0.71.6
Goals against / game4.83.0
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless30
Form (recent first)L L D L LL L D L W
Biggest win—3–1 at BRYC Academy
Worst loss0–11 at Richmond United Blue1–6 vs VA Reign FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.44-0.81
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.85+0.28

Common opponents: VA Reign FC — we 0–4; they 1–6. Herndon — we 1–3; they 1–2. Beach FC — we 2–4; they 2–2. Arlington Soccer Association — we 0–6; they 1–4.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–4 vs VA Reign FC, 0–11 at Richmond United Blue, 0–6 at Arlington Soccer Association.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 19%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    BRYC Academy sit 8th on 0.17 PPG; we are on 0.17.

    A point moves us above BRYC Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Virginia Valor FC – Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.14 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Win
0.57 PPG		 8th▲ up 1 8th▲ up 1 9th— holds
Draw
0.29 PPG		 8th▲ up 1 8th▲ up 1 9th— holds
Loss
0.14 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
8.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 7%
  8. 8th 32%
  9. 9th 60%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 0.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 VA Reign FC 3.00 (+2.83) 1st (2.87) 23 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Richmond United Blue 2.50 (+2.33) 2nd (2.56) 19 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Arlington Soccer Association 2.00 (+1.83) 3rd (2.14) 15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Herndon 2.00 (+1.83) 4th (1.54) 15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Beach FC 1.67 (+1.50) 5th (1.36) 13 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL 0.80 (+0.63) 6th (0.99) 6 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Stafford Revolution 0.67 (+0.50) 7th (0.78) 5 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection
8 BRYC Academy 0.17 (+0.00) 9th (0.34) Already ahead

How the results connect

21 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Virginia Valor FC to Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
2 even
16 favour them
-2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–3 2–1 0–4 6–1 2–4 2–2 0–6 4–1 4–0 1–3 1–0 1–1 2–3 0–4 3–0 3–2 4–1 Virginia Valor FC 9th Herndon 4th VA Reign FC 1st Beach FC 5th Arlington Soccer As… 3rd Stafford Revolution 7th BRYC Academy 8th Great Falls Reston … 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 5th 9th Aug 29 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.41 · 9th hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
02:00 PM		 Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL
6th · 1-1-3 · GD -7		 Home
SYA Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–3 0.73 0.25 Upside
Sun Nov 1
04:15 PM		 BRYC Academy
8th · 0-1-5 · GD -20		 Away far trip
Woodson High School · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 1–2 1.20 0.37 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 VA Reign FC 6600 182+16 183.00 WWWWW -0.20 -0.04 100% 1.1
2 Richmond United Blue 6501 301+29 152.50 WWWWL -0.31 -0.44 100% 1.9
3 Arlington Soccer Association 6402 185+13 122.00 WLLWW +0.02 -1.00 100% 3.0
4 Herndon 5311 1110+1 102.00 LDWWW -0.77 +1.28 65% 4.4
5 Beach FC 6312 1513+2 101.67 LWDWL -0.53 +1.59 33% 4.7
6 Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL 5113 815-7 40.80 WLDLL +0.28 -0.11 2% 6.3
7 Stafford Revolution 6114 716-9 40.67 LLDLW +0.17 -0.44 0% 6.7
8 BRYC Academy 6015 323-20 10.17 LDLLL +0.51 -0.50 0% 8.4
9 Virginia Valor FC 6015 429-25 10.17 LLDLL +0.85 -1.41 0% 8.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.12 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.