TableChase Clubs

Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL

ECNL Regional League Boys · Virginia BU16 · 9 teams · Great Falls Reston Soccer Club (all teams)

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6th
1-1-3 record · 5 played
0.80 points per game
-7 goal diff · 8–15
WLDLLlast 5
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.3
+0.28 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL
6th · 0.80 PPG
at
Virginia Valor FC
9th · 0.17 PPG

SYA Sports Park, Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.1 for, 1.7 against · 2.11 expected points)

Season so farGreat Falls Reston Soccer Club RLVirginia Valor FC
Position6th9th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-30-1-5
Points per game0.800.17
Goals for / game1.60.7
Goals against / game3.04.8
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless03
Form (recent first)L L D L WL L D L L
Biggest win3–1 at BRYC Academy—
Worst loss1–6 vs VA Reign FC0–11 at Richmond United Blue
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.81-2.44
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.28+0.85

Common opponents: Arlington Soccer Association — we 1–4; they 0–6. Beach FC — we 2–2; they 2–4. Herndon — we 1–2; they 1–3. VA Reign FC — we 1–6; they 0–4.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Virginia Valor FC average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 3 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Virginia Valor FC concede 4.8/game; worst result 0–11 at Richmond United Blue.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 65% / draw 16% / loss 19%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:00 PM at SYA Sports Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Virginia Valor FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL – Virginia Valor FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.17 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Win
1.17 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Draw
0.83 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Loss
0.67 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
6.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 7%
  6. 6th 60%
  7. 7th 28%
  8. 8th 4%
  9. 9th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 VA Reign FC 3.00 (+2.20) 1st (2.87) 20 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Richmond United Blue 2.50 (+1.70) 2nd (2.56) 16 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Arlington Soccer Association 2.00 (+1.20) 3rd (2.14) 12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Herndon 2.00 (+1.20) 4th (1.54) 12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection
5 Beach FC 1.67 (+0.87) 5th (1.36) 10 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection

How the results connect

21 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL to Virginia Valor FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

16 favour us
2 even
3 favour them
+2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–6 4–0 1–2 3–1 2–2 4–2 1–4 6–0 0–1 3–1 0–4 3–2 1–1 2–3 4–0 0–3 1–4 Great Falls Reston … 6th VA Reign FC 1st Herndon 4th Beach FC 5th Arlington Soccer As… 3rd BRYC Academy 8th Stafford Revolution 7th Virginia Valor FC 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 5th 9th Aug 29 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.11 · 4th hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
02:00 PM		 Virginia Valor FC
9th · 0-1-5 · GD -25		 Away
SYA Sports Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 3–1 2.11 1.02 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM		 Stafford Revolution
7th · 1-1-4 · GD -9		 Home
Ken Lawrence Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 2–1 1.66 1.11 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
12:00 PM		 Richmond United Blue
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +29		 Home
Lake Fairfax Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–4 0.11 0.99 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 VA Reign FC 6600 182+16 183.00 WWWWW -0.20 -0.04 100% 1.1
2 Richmond United Blue 6501 301+29 152.50 WWWWL -0.31 -0.44 100% 1.9
3 Arlington Soccer Association 6402 185+13 122.00 WLLWW +0.02 -1.00 100% 3.0
4 Herndon 5311 1110+1 102.00 LDWWW -0.77 +1.28 67% 4.4
5 Beach FC 6312 1513+2 101.67 LWDWL -0.53 +1.59 31% 4.7
6 Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL 5113 815-7 40.80 WLDLL +0.28 -0.11 1% 6.3
7 Stafford Revolution 6114 716-9 40.67 LLDLW +0.17 -0.44 1% 6.7
8 BRYC Academy 6015 323-20 10.17 LDLLL +0.51 -0.50 0% 8.4
9 Virginia Valor FC 6015 429-25 10.17 LLDLL +0.85 -1.41 0% 8.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.12 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.