Western Wisconsin Soccer
ECNL Regional League Boys · Twin Cities BU14 · 14 teams · Western Wisconsin Soccer (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM
National Sports Center, Field 25 ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.1 for, 2.6 against · 1.12 expected points)
| Season so far | Western Wisconsin Soccer | North Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-1 | 4-1-0 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| Goals for / game | 2.4 | 3.8 |
| Goals against / game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W D W W L | W W W W D |
| Biggest win | 3–0 vs Salvo SC | 5–1 vs Kickers FC |
| Worst loss | 1–2 vs Kickers FC | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.58 | +1.02 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.13 | -0.27 |
Common opponents: Kickers FC — we 1–2; they 5–1. Salvo SC — we 3–0; they 2–0. Tri-City United — we 2–0; they 5–3. DASC — we 3–3; they 5–4. Minnesota Rush — we 3–2; they 2–2.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
North Surf score 3.8/game — well above the league's 2.4.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 31%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
North Surf have won 4 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at National Sports Center.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Wave SC sit 6th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.A point moves us above Wave SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the North Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Western Wisconsin Soccer – North Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.83 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Win 2.17 PPG |
4th▲ up 3 | 5th▲ up 2 | 5th▲ up 2 |
| Draw 1.83 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Loss 1.67 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 2%
- 4th 7%
- 5th 21%
- 6th 1%
- 7th 69%
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 2.17 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edina Soccer Club | 3.00 (+1.00) | 1st (3.00) | 8 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | North Surf | 2.60 (+0.60) | 2nd (2.45) | 6 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 5 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Minnesota Rush | 2.17 (+0.17) | 3rd (2.17) | 4 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 3 for their projection |
| 4 | DASC | 2.00 (+0.00) | 5th (2.00) | A point next game |
| 5 | Fusion Soccer Club | 2.00 (+0.00) | 6th (2.00) | A point next game |
| 6 | Wave SC | 2.00 (+0.00) | 4th (2.11) | A point next game |
How the results connect
25 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Western Wisconsin Soccer to North Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +1.02 · 1st hardest of 4
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
North Surf 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
National Sports Center |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
2–2 | 1.12 | 1.85 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Edina Soccer Club | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.45 | — | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 2 | North Surf | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 13 | 2.60 | DWWWW | -0.27 | +0.58 | 95% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Western Wisconsin Soccer See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Minnesota Rush | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 13 | 2.17 | WDWWL | -0.07 | — | 100% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 4 | DASC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 16 | 2.00 | LDWWW | -0.13 | — | 8% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 5 | Fusion Soccer Club | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 12 | 2.00 | LWLWW | -0.18 | — | 0% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 6 | Wave SC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 10 | 2.00 | LWWWD | +0.30 | -3.05 | 89% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at MapleBrook SC See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Western Wisconsin Soccer | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 10 | 2.00 | LWWDW | -0.13 | +1.02 | 9% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at North Surf See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Kickers FC | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 9 | 1.50 | LLWLW | +0.15 | — | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 9 | EPSC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 7 | 1.17 | LWWDL | +0.04 | — | 0% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 10 | Tri-City United | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 6 | 0.75 | WLLLL | +0.22 | — | 0% | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 11 | Keliix-Intra SC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 4 | 0.67 | WLLLD | -0.26 | — | 0% | 11.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 12 | Shakopee Soccer Association | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 | 0.67 | LLLDL | +0.16 | — | 0% | 12.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 13 | Salvo SC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 27 | -24 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.50 | — | 0% | 13.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 14 | MapleBrook SC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 36 | -26 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.33 | +0.79 | 0% | 13.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Wave SC See all 1 future matchup ▸ |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.43 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.