Wave SC

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Fernbrook Athletic Fields, Field 3 ↗ far trip

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 5.3 for, 1.8 against · 2.69 expected points)

Common opponents: Edina Soccer Club — we 2–5; they 1–7. Shakopee Soccer Association — we 4–0; they 2–4. Keliix-Intra SC — we 3–0; they 1–6. Fusion Soccer Club — we 2–0; they 3–8. EPSC — we 2–2; they 3–11.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  MapleBrook SC concede 7.2/game; worst result 3–11 at EPSC.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 87% chance; likely score 5–1.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Confidence is low on their side
  MapleBrook SC have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• Away game
  Kickoff 09:00 AM at Fernbrook Athletic Fields.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• Early kickoff
  Game time 09:00 AM.

  Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

• What a win does
  Fusion Soccer Club sit 5th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.

  A point moves us above Fusion Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the MapleBrook SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Wave SC – MapleBrook SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd 6%
3. 3rd 29%
4. 4th 52%
5. 5th <1%
6. 6th 8%
7. 7th 4%
8. 8th
9. 9th
10. 10th
11. 11th
12. 12th
13. 13th
14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 2.17 PPG if we win out).