North Surf

ECNL Regional League Boys · Twin Cities BU14 · 14 teams · North Surf (all teams)

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2nd

4-1-0 record · 5 played

2.60 points per game

+9 goal diff · 19–10

DWWWWlast 5

94% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.6

-0.27 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM

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North Surf
2nd · 2.60 PPG

Western Wisconsin Soccer
7th · 2.00 PPG

National Sports Center, Field 25 ↗

51% 18% 31%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.6 for, 2.1 against · 1.70 expected points)

Season so far	North Surf	Western Wisconsin Soccer
Position	2nd	7th
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-0	3-1-1
Points per game	2.60	2.00
Goals for / game	3.8	2.4
Goals against / game	2.0	1.4
Clean sheets	1	2
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W W W D	W D W W L
Biggest win	5–1 vs Kickers FC	3–0 vs Salvo SC
Worst loss	—	1–2 vs Kickers FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.02	+0.58
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.27	-0.13

Common opponents: Minnesota Rush — we 2–2; they 3–2. Kickers FC — we 5–1; they 1–2. DASC — we 5–4; they 3–3. Tri-City United — we 5–3; they 2–0. Salvo SC — we 2–0; they 3–0.

Game plan

Swing game — small margins
Win 51% / draw 18% / loss 31%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Western Wisconsin Soccer game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (North Surf – Western Wisconsin Soccer) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 2.33 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.67 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.33 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 2.17 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	4th▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

94% top 4

6% below the top 4

2.6 average finish

1st
2nd 69%
3rd 8%
4th 17%
5th 6%
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Edina Soccer Club	3.00 (+0.40)	1st (3.00)	5 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 5 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

25 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link North Surf to Western Wisconsin Soccer through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

13 favour us

3 even

9 favour them

+0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.58 · 3rd hardest of 4

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM	Western Wisconsin Soccer 7th · 3-1-1 · GD +5	Home National Sports Center	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	2–2	1.70	2.45	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Edina Soccer Club

+15

3.00

WWWWW

-0.45

—

100%

1.0

North Surf

2.60

DWWWW

-0.27

+0.58

94%

2.6

W	Mon Oct 19	vs	Salvo SC (13th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Tri-City United (10th)	5–3
W	Fri Sep 25	at	DASC (4th)	5–4
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Kickers FC (8th)	5–1
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Minnesota Rush (3rd)	2–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Western Wisconsin Soccer See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Western Wisconsin Soccer (7th)	2–2	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Minnesota Rush

+12

2.17

WDWWL

-0.07

—

100%

2.9

DASC

+14

2.00

LDWWW

-0.13

—

5.2

Fusion Soccer Club

2.00

LWLWW

-0.18

—

6.2

Wave SC

2.00

LWWWD

+0.30

-3.05

88%

3.9

D	Sun Oct 4	vs	EPSC (9th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Fusion Soccer Club (5th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Keliix-Intra SC (11th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Shakopee Soccer Association (12th)	4–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Edina Soccer Club (1st)	2–5

Next: Sun Oct 25 at MapleBrook SC See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	MapleBrook SC (14th)	5–1	87%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Western Wisconsin Soccer

2.00

LWWDW

-0.13

+1.02

10%

6.2

W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Minnesota Rush (3rd)	3–2
D	Sun Sep 27	at	DASC (4th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Tri-City United (10th)	2–0
W	Fri Sep 18	vs	Salvo SC (13th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Kickers FC (8th)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at North Surf See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	North Surf (2nd)	2–2	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kickers FC

-4

1.50

LLWLW

+0.15

—

8.0

EPSC

1.17

LWWDL

+0.04

—

9.0

Tri-City United

-8

0.75

WLLLL

+0.22

—

10.0

Keliix-Intra SC

-1

0.67

WLLLD

-0.26

—

11.0

Shakopee Soccer Association

-9

0.67

LLLDL

+0.16

—

12.0

Salvo SC

-24

0.00

LLLLL

+0.50

—

13.1

MapleBrook SC

-26

0.00

LLLLL

+0.33

+0.79

13.9

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Edina Soccer Club (1st)	1–7
L	Sun Sep 27	at	EPSC (9th)	3–11
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Keliix-Intra SC (11th)	1–6
L	Fri Sep 18	at	Shakopee Soccer Association (12th)	2–4
L	Thu Sep 10	at	Fusion Soccer Club (5th)	3–8

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Wave SC See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Wave SC (6th)	1–5	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.43 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.