MapleBrook SC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Twin Cities BU14 · 14 teams · MapleBrook SC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM
Fernbrook Athletic Fields, Field 3 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–5 (expected goals 1.8 for, 5.3 against · 0.24 expected points)
| Season so far | MapleBrook SC | Wave SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 14th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-5 | 3-1-1 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Goals against / game | 7.2 | 1.4 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L L | D W W W L |
| Biggest win | — | 4–0 vs Shakopee Soccer Association |
| Worst loss | 3–11 at EPSC | 2–5 at Edina Soccer Club |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -3.05 | +0.79 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.33 | +0.30 |
Common opponents: Fusion Soccer Club — we 3–8; they 2–0. Shakopee Soccer Association — we 2–4; they 4–0. Keliix-Intra SC — we 1–6; they 3–0. EPSC — we 3–11; they 2–2. Edina Soccer Club — we 1–7; they 2–5.
Game plan
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 6%; a draw (7%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
-
What a win does
Salvo SC sit 13th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Salvo SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Wave SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (MapleBrook SC – Wave SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
14th— holds | 14th— holds | 14th— holds |
| Win 0.50 PPG |
13th▲ up 1 | 13th▲ up 1 | 13th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.17 PPG |
13th▲ up 1 | 13th▲ up 1 | 13th▲ up 1 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
14th— holds | 14th— holds | 14th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–5 loss we stay 14th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th 12%
- 14th 88%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 0.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edina Soccer Club | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (3.00) | 18 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | North Surf | 2.60 (+2.60) | 2nd (2.45) | 16 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Minnesota Rush | 2.17 (+2.17) | 3rd (2.17) | 14 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | DASC | 2.00 (+2.00) | 5th (2.00) | 12 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Fusion Soccer Club | 2.00 (+2.00) | 6th (2.00) | 12 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Wave SC | 2.00 (+2.00) | 4th (2.11) | 12 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 7 | Western Wisconsin Soccer | 2.00 (+2.00) | 7th (1.85) | 12 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 8 | Kickers FC | 1.50 (+1.50) | 8th (1.50) | 9 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 9 | EPSC | 1.17 (+1.17) | 9th (1.17) | 8 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 10 | Tri-City United | 0.75 (+0.75) | 10th (0.75) | 5 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 5 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 11 | Keliix-Intra SC | 0.67 (+0.67) | 11th (0.67) | 5 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 4 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 12 | Shakopee Soccer Association | 0.67 (+0.67) | 12th (0.67) | 5 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 4 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 13 | Salvo SC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 14th (0.00) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
21 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link MapleBrook SC to Wave SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.79 · 2nd hardest of 4
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM |
Wave SC 6th · 3-1-1 · GD +6 |
Home Fernbrook Athletic Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–5 | 0.24 | 0.04 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edina Soccer Club | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.45 | — | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | North Surf | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 13 | 2.60 | DWWWW | -0.27 | +0.58 | 94% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Western Wisconsin Soccer See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Minnesota Rush | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 13 | 2.17 | WDWWL | -0.07 | — | 100% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | DASC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 16 | 2.00 | LDWWW | -0.13 | — | 9% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Fusion Soccer Club | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 12 | 2.00 | LWLWW | -0.18 | — | 0% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Wave SC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 10 | 2.00 | LWWWD | +0.30 | -3.05 | 88% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at MapleBrook SC See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Western Wisconsin Soccer | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 10 | 2.00 | LWWDW | -0.13 | +1.02 | 10% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at North Surf See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Kickers FC | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 9 | 1.50 | LLWLW | +0.15 | — | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | EPSC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 7 | 1.17 | LWWDL | +0.04 | — | 0% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Tri-City United | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 6 | 0.75 | WLLLL | +0.22 | — | 0% | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Keliix-Intra SC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 4 | 0.67 | WLLLD | -0.26 | — | 0% | 11.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | Shakopee Soccer Association | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 | 0.67 | LLLDL | +0.16 | — | 0% | 12.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | Salvo SC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 27 | -24 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.50 | — | 0% | 13.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | MapleBrook SC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 36 | -26 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.33 | +0.79 | 0% | 13.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Wave SC See all 1 future matchup ▸ |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.43 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.