HTX S

ECNL Regional League Boys · Texas BU14 · 16 teams · HTX (all teams)

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8th

3-2-2 record · 7 played

1.57 points per game

+2 goal diff · 15–13

WWDDLlast 5

4% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.2

+0.05 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM

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HTX S
8th · 1.57 PPG

HTX N
3rd · 2.57 PPG

Gosling Sports Fields, Field 1 ↗ far trip

27% 19% 54%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.8 for, 2.5 against · 1.00 expected points)

Season so far	HTX S	HTX N
Position	8th	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	3-2-2	6-0-1
Points per game	1.57	2.57
Goals for / game	2.1	3.1
Goals against / game	1.9	1.7
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	L D D W W	W W W L W
Biggest win	3–1 vs SAFC	6–1 at San Antonio City SC
Worst loss	1–2 at Lonestar ATX White	2–3 vs DKSC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.22	+0.75
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.05	-0.88

Common opponents: SAFC — we 3–1; they 3–2. Nido Dallas — we 2–2; they 4–2. DKSC — we 0–1; they 2–3.

Game plan

Respect their attack
HTX N score 3.1/game — well above the league's 2.2.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at DKSC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 27%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
HTX N have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at Gosling Sports Fields.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
SOLAR SC sit 7th on 1.71 PPG; we are on 1.57.
A point moves us above SOLAR SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the HTX N game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (HTX S – HTX N) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.38 PPG	8th— holds	9th▼ down 1	12th▼ down 4
Win 1.75 PPG	7th▲ up 1	8th— holds	8th— holds
Draw 1.50 PPG	8th— holds	9th▼ down 1	11th▼ down 3
Loss 1.38 PPG	8th— holds	9th▼ down 1	12th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–2 loss we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

4% top 4

96% below the top 4

8.2 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd 1%
4th 3%
5th 8%
6th 12%
7th 16%
8th 16%
9th 14%
10th 14%
11th 11%
12th 5%
13th <1%
14th
15th
16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Sting	3.00 (+1.43)	2nd (2.38)	34 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	RISE SC	3.00 (+1.43)	3rd (2.24)	34 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
3	HTX N	2.57 (+1.00)	4th (2.01)	28 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
4	CHALLENGE UNITED	2.43 (+0.86)	1st (2.43)	26 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	FC Dallas Youth	1.88 (+0.31)	5th (1.78)	18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
6	Houstonians FC	1.80 (+0.23)	7th (1.54)	16 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
7	SOLAR SC	1.71 (+0.14)	6th (1.65)	A point next game

How the results connect

21 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link HTX S to HTX N through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

10 favour us

3 even

8 favour them

+0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.08 · 11th hardest of 16

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Sep 12 11:00 AM no score posted	Sting 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +16	Home Blue Ridge Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	20%	1–2	0.79	1.47	Upside
Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM	HTX N 3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +10	Away far trip Gosling Sports Fields	●●●●○ Tough	27%	1–2	1.00	1.42	Upside
Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM	Dallas Texans 14th · 1-0-7 · GD -17	Away far trip Beacon Park	●●○○○ Lean win	66%	2–1	2.17	1.50	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM	FC Dallas Youth 5th · 5-0-3 · GD +11	Away far trip Toyota Soccer Center	●●●●○ Tough	27%	1–2	0.98	1.45	Upside
Sat Nov 14 09:00 AM	RISE SC 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +10	Home Blue Ridge Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	27%	1–2	1.00	1.41	Upside
Sun Nov 15 09:00 AM	Albion Hurricanes FC 11th · 1-1-2 · GD -1	Home Blue Ridge Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	2–1	1.73	1.44	Swing game
Sat Dec 5 11:00 AM	San Antonio City SC 16th · 0-0-7 · GD -39	Home Blue Ridge Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	94%	4–0	2.86	1.54	Bank it
Sat May 1 TBD	Houstonians FC 6th · 3-0-2 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	39%	1–1	1.37	1.53	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Sting

+16

3.00

WWWWW

-0.99

+0.35

97%

2.1

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Lonestar ATX White (10th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Westlake (13th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	DKSC (9th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	San Antonio City SC (16th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	SAFC (12th)	6–0

Next: Sat Sep 12 at HTX S · Sat Oct 24 vs RISE SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Albion Hurricanes FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 12 (no score yet)	at	HTX S (8th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	RISE SC (2nd)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (11th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Nido Dallas (15th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	CHALLENGE UNITED (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	HTX N (3rd)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	FC Dallas Youth (5th)	3–1	66%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Houstonians FC (6th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	SOLAR SC (7th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Dallas Texans (14th)	3–0	91%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC

+10

3.00

WWWW

-0.14

-0.06

90%

2.9

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (11th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	FC Dallas Youth (5th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Dallas Texans (14th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar ATX White (10th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 3 at DKSC · Sun Oct 4 at Nido Dallas · Sat Oct 24 at Sting See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	DKSC (9th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	at	Nido Dallas (15th)	3–1	85%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting (1st)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	SOLAR SC (7th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	San Antonio City SC (16th)	6–0	98%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	SAFC (12th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	HTX N (3rd)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	HTX S (8th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Houstonians FC (6th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED (4th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	FC Westlake (13th)	3–1	85%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

HTX N

+10

2.57

WLWWW

-0.88

+0.74

62%

4.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Dallas Texans (14th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Dallas Youth (5th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Houstonians FC (6th)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	DKSC (9th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Nido Dallas (15th)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	SAFC (12th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	San Antonio City SC (16th)	6–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs HTX S · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Westlake · Sat Nov 7 vs RISE SC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	HTX S (8th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Westlake (13th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	RISE SC (2nd)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SOLAR SC (7th)	2–2	46%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Sting (1st)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	CHALLENGE UNITED (4th)	1–3	10%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (11th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Lonestar ATX White (10th)	2–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CHALLENGE UNITED

+31

2.43

WWDWW

-0.85

+0.45

99%

1.8

W	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Dallas Youth (5th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Dallas Texans (14th)	5–0
D	Sat Oct 10	at	HTX S (8th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Nido Dallas (15th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	DKSC (9th)	8–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	San Antonio City SC (16th)	7–0
D	Sat Sep 12	at	SAFC (12th)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Houstonians FC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Westlake · Sat Nov 14 vs Sting See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Houstonians FC (6th)	4–1	86%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Westlake (13th)	4–1	92%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Sting (1st)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	SOLAR SC (7th)	4–1	80%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	RISE SC (2nd)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	HTX N (3rd)	3–1	79%
·	Fri May 7	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (11th)	4–1	87%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Lonestar ATX White (10th)	3–1	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth

+11

1.88

WWWLL

-0.24

+0.21

25%

5.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED (4th)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	HTX N (3rd)	2–3
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	SAFC (12th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	San Antonio City SC (16th)	9–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Dallas Texans (14th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	RISE SC (2nd)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (11th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Nido Dallas (15th)	6–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Houstonians FC · Sun Nov 1 vs HTX S · Sat Nov 14 at FC Westlake See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Houstonians FC (6th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	HTX S (8th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC Westlake (13th)	3–1	71%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lonestar ATX White (10th)	2–2	44%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Sting (1st)	1–3	19%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	DKSC (9th)	3–1	70%
·	Sat May 1	at	SOLAR SC (7th)	2–3	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC

1.80

WLLWW

-0.11

+0.03

8.2

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Nido Dallas (15th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	DKSC (9th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	HTX N (3rd)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Lonestar ATX White (10th)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	SOLAR SC (7th)	5–3

Next: Sat Oct 3 at CHALLENGE UNITED · Sat Oct 24 vs San Antonio City SC · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	CHALLENGE UNITED (4th)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	San Antonio City SC (16th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas Youth (5th)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Dallas Texans (14th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Westlake (13th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (11th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	RISE SC (2nd)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	SAFC (12th)	2–2	49%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Sting (1st)	1–2	17%
·	Sat May 1	vs	HTX S (8th)	1–1	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR SC

+11

1.71

WLWWW

-0.69

+0.51

13%

6.7

W	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Westlake (13th)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX White (10th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	DKSC (9th)	4–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	SAFC (12th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	San Antonio City SC (16th)	8–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	HTX S (8th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Houstonians FC (6th)	3–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Albion Hurricanes FC · Sun Oct 25 vs RISE SC · Sun Nov 8 at Dallas Texans See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (11th)	3–1	64%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	RISE SC (2nd)	2–2	36%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Dallas Texans (14th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	HTX N (3rd)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	CHALLENGE UNITED (4th)	1–4	10%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Nido Dallas (15th)	4–1	88%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Sting (1st)	1–2	27%
·	Sat May 1	vs	FC Dallas Youth (5th)	3–2	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

HTX S

1.57

WWDDL

+0.05

-0.08

8.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	DKSC (9th)	0–1
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Nido Dallas (15th)	2–2
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED (4th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	SAFC (12th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Westlake (13th)	4–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX White (10th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	SOLAR SC (7th)	3–2

Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Sting · Sun Oct 25 at HTX N · Sat Oct 31 at Dallas Texans See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 12 (no score yet)	vs	Sting (1st)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	HTX N (3rd)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Dallas Texans (14th)	2–1	66%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Dallas Youth (5th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	RISE SC (2nd)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (11th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	San Antonio City SC (16th)	4–0	94%
·	Sat May 1	at	Houstonians FC (6th)	1–1	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC

-7

1.29

WLLLW

+0.69

-0.54

9.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	HTX S (8th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Houstonians FC (6th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 10	at	SOLAR SC (7th)	2–4
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Sting (1st)	2–3
W	Sun Sep 20	at	HTX N (3rd)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	CHALLENGE UNITED (4th)	1–8
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Dallas Texans (14th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs RISE SC · Sun Oct 4 vs Albion Hurricanes FC · Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX White See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	RISE SC (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (11th)	1–2	39%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar ATX White (10th)	1–2	32%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Westlake (13th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	San Antonio City SC (16th)	3–1	84%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	SAFC (12th)	2–2	30%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC Dallas Youth (5th)	1–3	16%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Nido Dallas (15th)	3–1	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX White

1.17

DWWLL

+0.70

-0.46

8.3

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sting (1st)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	SOLAR SC (7th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Houstonians FC (6th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	HTX S (8th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (11th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	RISE SC (2nd)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs SAFC · Sat Oct 24 at DKSC · Sun Oct 25 at Nido Dallas See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	SAFC (12th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	DKSC (9th)	2–1	47%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Nido Dallas (15th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Dallas Texans (14th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	FC Dallas Youth (5th)	2–2	36%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC Westlake (13th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat May 1	at	San Antonio City SC (16th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat May 8	at	HTX N (3rd)	1–2	28%
·	Sun May 9	at	CHALLENGE UNITED (4th)	1–3	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Albion Hurricanes FC

-1

1.00

DLWL

+0.25

-0.06

10.5

L	Sat Oct 10	at	RISE SC (2nd)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Dallas Texans (14th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Dallas Youth (5th)	2–3
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar ATX White (10th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 3 at Nido Dallas · Sun Oct 4 at DKSC · Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR SC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	Nido Dallas (15th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	at	DKSC (9th)	2–1	41%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SOLAR SC (7th)	1–3	20%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Sting (1st)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	SAFC (12th)	2–2	46%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	San Antonio City SC (16th)	4–0	92%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Houstonians FC (6th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	HTX S (8th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC Westlake (13th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat May 1	at	HTX N (3rd)	1–2	22%
·	Fri May 7	at	CHALLENGE UNITED (4th)	1–4	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SAFC

-5

1.00

LWLWL

+0.76

-0.68

9.9

L	Sun Oct 11	at	FC Dallas Youth (5th)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Dallas Texans (14th)	5–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	HTX S (8th)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 20	at	SOLAR SC (7th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Sting (1st)	0–6
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	HTX N (3rd)	2–3
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED (4th)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 3 at Lonestar ATX White · Sat Oct 31 at Albion Hurricanes FC · Sun Nov 1 at RISE SC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	Lonestar ATX White (10th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (11th)	2–2	34%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	RISE SC (2nd)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Nido Dallas (15th)	3–1	73%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	DKSC (9th)	2–2	52%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Houstonians FC (6th)	2–2	32%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	San Antonio City SC (16th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat May 1	vs	FC Westlake (13th)	2–1	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake

-7

0.75

LWLL

-0.11

+0.18

13.2

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	SOLAR SC (7th)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sting (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	San Antonio City SC (16th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	HTX S (8th)	3–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nido Dallas · Sun Oct 25 at DKSC · Sat Oct 31 at HTX N See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Nido Dallas (15th)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	DKSC (9th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	HTX N (3rd)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED (4th)	1–4	3%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Houstonians FC (6th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Dallas Youth (5th)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Dallas Texans (14th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (11th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	RISE SC (2nd)	1–3	6%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Lonestar ATX White (10th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat May 1	at	SAFC (12th)	1–2	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans

-17

0.38

LLWLL

+0.17

+0.04

14.4

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	HTX N (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED (4th)	0–5
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	San Antonio City SC (16th)	4–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	SAFC (12th)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Dallas Youth (5th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (11th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	RISE SC (2nd)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	DKSC (9th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs HTX S · Sun Nov 1 vs Houstonians FC · Sun Nov 8 vs SOLAR SC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	HTX S (8th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Houstonians FC (6th)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	SOLAR SC (7th)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX White (10th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Westlake (13th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Nido Dallas (15th)	1–2	33%
·	Sat May 1	at	Sting (1st)	0–3	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nido Dallas

-16

0.20

LLLDL

+0.87

-0.29

14.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Houstonians FC (6th)	1–2
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	HTX S (8th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	CHALLENGE UNITED (4th)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 19	at	HTX N (3rd)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth (5th)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Albion Hurricanes FC · Sun Oct 4 vs RISE SC · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Westlake See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (11th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	vs	RISE SC (2nd)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Westlake (13th)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX White (10th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sting (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SAFC (12th)	1–3	14%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	San Antonio City SC (16th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	SOLAR SC (7th)	1–4	5%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Dallas Texans (14th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat May 1	at	DKSC (9th)	1–3	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Antonio City SC

-39

0.00

LLLLL

+0.57

-0.09

15.9

L	Sun Oct 11	at	Dallas Texans (14th)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Dallas Youth (5th)	0–9
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Westlake (13th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Sting (1st)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	at	SOLAR SC (7th)	0–8
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED (4th)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	HTX N (3rd)	1–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Houstonians FC · Sat Oct 31 at RISE SC · Sun Nov 1 at Albion Hurricanes FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Houstonians FC (6th)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	RISE SC (2nd)	0–6	0%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (11th)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	DKSC (9th)	1–3	6%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Nido Dallas (15th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	HTX S (8th)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	SAFC (12th)	0–4	2%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Lonestar ATX White (10th)	0–3	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.24 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.