FC Westlake
ECNL Regional League Boys · Texas BU14 · 16 teams · FC Westlake (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
Saginaw High School , field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.2 for, 2.0 against · 1.50 expected points)
| Season so far | FC Westlake | Nido Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 13th | 15th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-3 | 0-1-4 |
| Points per game | 0.75 | 0.20 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 3.0 | 4.2 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W L | L D L L L |
| Biggest win | 2–1 at San Antonio City SC | — |
| Worst loss | 0–4 vs SOLAR SC | 0–7 at CHALLENGE UNITED |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.09 | -1.66 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.11 | +0.87 |
Common opponents: HTX S — we 3–4; they 2–2.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Nido Dallas average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 2 of 5.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Nido Dallas concede 4.2/game; worst result 0–7 at CHALLENGE UNITED.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 vs Sting, 0–4 vs SOLAR SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 43% / draw 20% / loss 37%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Saginaw High School .Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
SAFC sit 12th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.75.A point moves us above SAFC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Nido Dallas game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Westlake – Nido Dallas) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 0.80 PPG |
13th— holds | 12th▲ up 1 | 13th— holds |
| Win 1.20 PPG |
10th▲ up 3 | 10th▲ up 3 | 12th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.80 PPG |
13th— holds | 12th▲ up 1 | 13th— holds |
| Loss 0.60 PPG |
14th▼ down 1 | 13th— holds | 14th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 12th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th <1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th 1%
- 10th 1%
- 11th 3%
- 12th 10%
- 13th 46%
- 14th 26%
- 15th 12%
- 16th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sting | 3.00 (+2.25) | 2nd (2.38) | 42 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 2 | RISE SC | 3.00 (+2.25) | 3rd (2.24) | 42 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 3 | HTX N | 2.57 (+1.82) | 4th (2.01) | 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 4 | CHALLENGE UNITED | 2.43 (+1.68) | 1st (2.43) | 34 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | FC Dallas Youth | 1.88 (+1.13) | 5th (1.78) | 26 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 6 | Houstonians FC | 1.80 (+1.05) | 7th (1.54) | 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 7 | SOLAR SC | 1.71 (+0.96) | 6th (1.65) | 23 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 8 | HTX S | 1.57 (+0.82) | 8th (1.53) | 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 9 | DKSC | 1.29 (+0.54) | 10th (1.37) | 17 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 10 | Lonestar ATX White | 1.17 (+0.42) | 9th (1.49) | A point next game |
| 11 | Albion Hurricanes FC | 1.00 (+0.25) | 12th (1.25) | A point next game |
| 12 | SAFC | 1.00 (+0.25) | 11th (1.33) | A point next game |
How the results connect
7 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link FC Westlake to Nido Dallas through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.18 · 6th hardest of 16
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
Nido Dallas 15th · 0-1-4 · GD -16 |
Away far trip
Saginaw High School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.50 | 0.90 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM |
DKSC 9th · 3-0-4 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Coppell Middle School West |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.92 | 0.90 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
HTX N 3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Bear Branch Sportsfields |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–3 | 0.43 | 0.84 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM |
CHALLENGE UNITED 4th · 5-2-0 · GD +31 |
Home East View High School · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–4 | 0.15 | 0.75 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
Houstonians FC 6th · 3-0-2 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
USA International Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.72 | 0.75 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM |
FC Dallas Youth 5th · 5-0-3 · GD +11 |
Home Parkway Bible Church |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–3 | 0.59 | 0.73 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM |
Dallas Texans 14th · 1-0-7 · GD -17 |
Home Hill Country Middle School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–1 | 1.81 | 0.83 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM |
Albion Hurricanes FC 11th · 1-1-2 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Campbell Road Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.78 | 0.82 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 09:00 AM |
RISE SC 2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
South Campus |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–3 | 0.28 | 0.78 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 09:00 AM |
Lonestar ATX White 10th · 2-1-3 · GD +1 |
Home Onion Creek Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.86 | 0.79 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
SAFC 12th · 2-1-4 · GD -5 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.76 | 0.79 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Sting | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 3 | +16 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.99 | +0.35 | 96% | 2.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at HTX S · Sat Oct 24 vs RISE SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Albion Hurricanes FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | RISE SC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.14 | -0.06 | 90% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at DKSC · Sun Oct 4 at Nido Dallas · Sat Oct 24 at Sting See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | HTX N | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 12 | +10 | 18 | 2.57 | WLWWW | -0.88 | +0.74 | 61% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs HTX S · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Westlake · Sat Nov 7 vs RISE SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | CHALLENGE UNITED | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 37 | 6 | +31 | 17 | 2.43 | WWDWW | -0.85 | +0.45 | 99% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Houstonians FC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Westlake · Sat Nov 14 vs Sting See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Dallas Youth | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 16 | +11 | 15 | 1.88 | WWWLL | -0.24 | +0.21 | 26% | 5.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Houstonians FC · Sun Nov 1 vs HTX S · Sat Nov 14 at FC Westlake See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Houstonians FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 9 | 1.80 | WLLWW | -0.11 | +0.03 | 5% | 8.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at CHALLENGE UNITED · Sat Oct 24 vs San Antonio City SC · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | SOLAR SC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 14 | +11 | 12 | 1.71 | WLWWW | -0.69 | +0.51 | 13% | 6.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Albion Hurricanes FC · Sun Oct 25 vs RISE SC · Sun Nov 8 at Dallas Texans See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | HTX S | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 11 | 1.57 | WWDDL | +0.05 | -0.08 | 5% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Sting · Sun Oct 25 at HTX N · Sat Oct 31 at Dallas Texans See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | DKSC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 9 | 1.29 | WLLLW | +0.69 | -0.54 | 1% | 9.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs RISE SC · Sun Oct 4 vs Albion Hurricanes FC · Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX White See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Lonestar ATX White | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 7 | 1.17 | DWWLL | +0.70 | -0.46 | 3% | 8.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs SAFC · Sat Oct 24 at DKSC · Sun Oct 25 at Nido Dallas See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Albion Hurricanes FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 4 | 1.00 | DLWL | +0.25 | -0.06 | 0% | 10.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Nido Dallas · Sun Oct 4 at DKSC · Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | SAFC | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 7 | 1.00 | LWLWL | +0.76 | -0.68 | 0% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Lonestar ATX White · Sat Oct 31 at Albion Hurricanes FC · Sun Nov 1 at RISE SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | FC Westlake | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 3 | 0.75 | LWLL | -0.11 | +0.18 | 0% | 13.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nido Dallas · Sun Oct 25 at DKSC · Sat Oct 31 at HTX N See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Dallas Texans | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 24 | -17 | 3 | 0.38 | LLWLL | +0.17 | +0.04 | 0% | 14.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs HTX S · Sun Nov 1 vs Houstonians FC · Sun Nov 8 vs SOLAR SC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Nido Dallas | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 21 | -16 | 1 | 0.20 | LLLDL | +0.87 | -0.29 | 0% | 14.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Albion Hurricanes FC · Sun Oct 4 vs RISE SC · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Westlake See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | San Antonio City SC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 41 | -39 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.57 | -0.09 | 0% | 16.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Houstonians FC · Sat Oct 31 at RISE SC · Sun Nov 1 at Albion Hurricanes FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.24 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.