South Carolina Surf
ECNL Regional League Boys · Southeast BU13 · 11 teams · South Carolina Surf SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM
Mesa Soccer Complex, Field 4 ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.2 for, 1.8 against · 0.99 expected points)
| Season so far | South Carolina Surf | CESA Triumph Surge |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 11th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-1-7 | 0-1-7 |
| Points per game | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Goals for / game | 0.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals against / game | 3.0 | 4.6 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 7 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | L L D L L | L L L D L |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | 0–6 at United Futbol Academy | 0–9 at GSA |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.95 | -2.28 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.65 | +1.21 |
Common opponents: GSA — we 0–3; they 0–2, 0–9. United Futbol Academy — we 0–6; they 1–5, 3–7. South Carolina United — we 0–4, 0–0; they 0–0. Concorde Fire Platinum — we 1–4; they 0–5. Concorde Fire Premier — we 0–2; they 1–4.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
CESA Triumph Surge average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 4 of 8.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
CESA Triumph Surge concede 4.6/game; worst result 0–9 at GSA.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 7 time(s): 0–3 at GSA, 0–6 at United Futbol Academy, 0–1 vs Atlanta Fire United, 0–4 vs NTH NASA, 0–4 vs South Carolina United, 0–0 at South Carolina United, 0–2 vs Concorde Fire Premier.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 25%; a draw (24%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Confidence is low on their side
CESA Triumph Surge have lost 3 straight (form: LDLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Mesa Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the CESA Triumph Surge game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (South Carolina Surf – CESA Triumph Surge) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 0.22 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 10th— holds |
| Win 0.44 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 10th— holds |
| Draw 0.22 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 10th— holds |
| Loss 0.11 PPG |
11th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 10th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th 1%
- 10th 34%
- 11th 66%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 1.85 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GSA | 3.00 (+2.87) | 1st (2.56) | 59 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | United Futbol Academy | 2.78 (+2.65) | 2nd (2.55) | 55 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | NTH NASA | 2.14 (+2.01) | 3rd (1.92) | 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 1.75 (+1.62) | 4th (1.66) | 34 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 5 | Concorde Fire Premier | 1.38 (+1.25) | 6th (1.32) | 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 6 | CESA Triumph Summit | 1.25 (+1.12) | 5th (1.37) | 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 7 | South Carolina United | 1.00 (+0.87) | 8th (1.17) | 19 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 8 | Atlanta Fire United | 1.00 (+0.87) | 7th (1.23) | 19 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 9 | Charlotte SA Gold | 0.86 (+0.73) | 9th (1.09) | 17 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
How the results connect
46 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link South Carolina Surf to CESA Triumph Surge through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
17 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.18 · 6th hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
CESA Triumph Surge 11th · 0-1-7 · GD -31 |
Away far trip
Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–1 | 0.99 | 0.22 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM |
CESA Triumph Summit 6th · 3-1-4 · GD -12 |
Away far trip
Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–3 | 0.32 | 0.23 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 01:00 PM |
CESA Triumph Surge 11th · 0-1-7 · GD -31 |
Home Shea Family Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.22 | 0.32 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Atlanta Fire United 8th · 2-1-4 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
0–2 | 0.43 | 0.33 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 09:00 AM |
NTH NASA 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Metro North Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–2 | 0.22 | 0.32 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 04:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Premier 5th · 3-2-3 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–2 | 0.35 | 0.32 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 11:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 4th · 4-2-2 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–3 | 0.18 | 0.31 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 03:00 PM |
CESA Triumph Summit 6th · 3-1-4 · GD -12 |
Home Shea Family Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.48 | 0.32 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 01:00 PM |
Charlotte SA Gold 9th · 2-0-5 · GD -10 |
Home Shea Family Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
0–1 | 0.70 | 0.35 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Charlotte SA Gold 9th · 2-0-5 · GD -10 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
0–2 | 0.53 | 0.36 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 09:00 AM |
GSA 1st · 9-0-0 · GD +28 |
Home Shea Family Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–3 | 0.08 | 0.34 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 09:00 AM |
United Futbol Academy 2nd · 8-1-0 · GD +37 |
Home Shea Family Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.04 | 0.33 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | GSA | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 6 | +28 | 27 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.97 | +0.36 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NTH NASA · Sun Oct 25 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sun Nov 1 vs United Futbol Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | United Futbol Academy | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 45 | 8 | +37 | 25 | 2.78 | WWWWW | -0.97 | +0.24 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sun Oct 25 vs NTH NASA · Sun Nov 1 at GSA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | NTH NASA | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 15 | 2.14 | LWWWW | +0.26 | -0.30 | 96% | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at Atlanta Fire United · Sat Oct 24 at GSA · Sun Oct 25 at United Futbol Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 14 | 1.75 | WWLDW | -0.70 | +0.31 | 73% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Charlotte SA Gold · Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina United · Sat Nov 7 vs NTH NASA See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Concorde Fire Premier | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 11 | 1.38 | WLLDW | -0.61 | +0.37 | 9% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina United · Sun Oct 25 vs Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | CESA Triumph Summit | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 10 | 1.25 | LWWLL | +1.01 | -0.56 | 12% | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sun Feb 14 at South Carolina United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | South Carolina United | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 12 | +0 | 9 | 1.00 | LLWDW | -0.33 | +0.17 | 3% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Feb 13 vs CESA Triumph Surge See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Atlanta Fire United | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 | 1.00 | DLWWL | +0.37 | -0.23 | 5% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs NTH NASA · Sat Oct 24 at United Futbol Academy · Sun Oct 25 at GSA See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Charlotte SA Gold | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 6 | 0.86 | LLLWL | +0.76 | -0.35 | 1% | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sat Nov 7 vs CESA Triumph Surge See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | South Carolina Surf | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 24 | -23 | 1 | 0.13 | LLDLL | +0.65 | -0.18 | 0% | 10.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at CESA Triumph Surge · Sun Nov 1 at CESA Triumph Summit · Sat Feb 6 vs CESA Triumph Surge See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | CESA Triumph Surge | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 37 | -31 | 1 | 0.13 | LDLLL | +1.21 | -0.43 | 0% | 10.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs South Carolina Surf · Sat Nov 7 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Feb 6 at South Carolina Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.