CESA Triumph Surge

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Mesa Soccer Complex, Field 4 ↗

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.8 for, 1.2 against · 1.77 expected points)

Common opponents: Concorde Fire Premier — we 1–4; they 0–2. Concorde Fire Platinum — we 0–5; they 1–4. GSA — we 0–2, 0–9; they 0–3. United Futbol Academy — we 1–5, 3–7; they 0–6. South Carolina United — we 0–0; they 0–4, 0–0.

• They struggle to score
  South Carolina Surf average 0.1 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 7 of 8.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  South Carolina Surf concede 3.0/game; worst result 0–6 at United Futbol Academy.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–5 at Concorde Fire Platinum, 0–2 vs GSA, 0–0 vs South Carolina United, 0–9 at GSA.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 51% / draw 24% / loss 25%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• What a win does
  South Carolina Surf sit 10th on 0.13 PPG; we are on 0.13.

  A point moves us above South Carolina Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the South Carolina Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CESA Triumph Surge – South Carolina Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 10th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th
5. 5th
6. 6th <1%
7. 7th <1%
8. 8th <1%
9. 9th 2%
10. 10th 64%
11. 11th 34%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 1.85 PPG if we win out).