NTH NASA
ECNL Regional League Boys · Southeast BU13 · 11 teams · NASA Tophat (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.0 for, 2.4 against · 0.61 expected points)
| Season so far | NTH NASA | GSA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-2 | 9-0-0 |
| Points per game | 2.14 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.9 | 3.8 |
| Goals against / game | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 5 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W L | W W W W W |
| Biggest win | 4–0 at South Carolina Surf | 9–0 vs CESA Triumph Surge |
| Worst loss | 2–6 vs United Futbol Academy | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.54 | +2.01 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.26 | -0.97 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 1–2 vs GSA (L)
Common opponents: Atlanta Fire United — we 2–0; they 3–0. Charlotte SA Gold — we 1–0; they 6–1. South Carolina Surf — we 4–0; they 3–0.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
GSA score 3.8/game — well above the league's 1.9.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
GSA concede only 0.7/game with 5 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 14%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
GSA have won 9 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at Rabbit Hill Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the GSA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NTH NASA – GSA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.88 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.25 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.88 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 2%
- 3rd 75%
- 4th 18%
- 5th 4%
- 6th 1%
- 7th <1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.70 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GSA | 3.00 (+0.86) | 1st (2.56) | 45 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection |
| 2 | United Futbol Academy | 2.78 (+0.64) | 2nd (2.55) | 41 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
How the results connect
39 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link NTH NASA to GSA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
17 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.30 · 8th hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 18 TBD no score posted |
Atlanta Fire United 8th · 2-1-4 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
1–1 | 1.75 | 2.09 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
GSA 1st · 9-0-0 · GD +28 |
Away Rabbit Hill Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.61 | 1.93 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
United Futbol Academy 2nd · 8-1-0 · GD +37 |
Away Fowler Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.49 | 1.78 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 4th · 4-2-2 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.26 | 1.74 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 03:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Premier 5th · 3-2-3 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.59 | 1.72 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 20 09:00 AM |
CESA Triumph Surge 11th · 0-1-7 · GD -31 |
Home Metro North Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
3–0 | 2.72 | 1.80 | Bank it |
| Sun Feb 21 09:00 AM |
CESA Triumph Summit 6th · 3-1-4 · GD -12 |
Home Metro North Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
3–1 | 2.26 | 1.83 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 7 09:00 AM |
South Carolina Surf 10th · 0-1-7 · GD -23 |
Home Metro North Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
2–0 | 2.67 | 1.89 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 01:00 PM |
CESA Triumph Surge 11th · 0-1-7 · GD -31 |
Away far trip
Mesa Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–0 | 2.57 | 1.93 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 01:00 PM |
CESA Triumph Summit 6th · 3-1-4 · GD -12 |
Away far trip
Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 1.94 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 01:00 PM |
South Carolina United 7th · 2-3-4 · GD +0 |
Home Metro North Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–0 | 1.79 | 1.93 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 09:00 AM |
Charlotte SA Gold 9th · 2-0-5 · GD -10 |
Home Metro North Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–1 | 2.22 | 1.94 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
South Carolina United 7th · 2-3-4 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.56 | 1.92 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | GSA | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 6 | +28 | 27 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.97 | +0.36 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NTH NASA · Sun Oct 25 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sun Nov 1 vs United Futbol Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | United Futbol Academy | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 45 | 8 | +37 | 25 | 2.78 | WWWWW | -0.97 | +0.24 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sun Oct 25 vs NTH NASA · Sun Nov 1 at GSA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | NTH NASA | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 15 | 2.14 | LWWWW | +0.26 | -0.30 | 95% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at Atlanta Fire United · Sat Oct 24 at GSA · Sun Oct 25 at United Futbol Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 14 | 1.75 | WWLDW | -0.70 | +0.31 | 73% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Charlotte SA Gold · Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina United · Sat Nov 7 vs NTH NASA See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Concorde Fire Premier | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 11 | 1.38 | WLLDW | -0.61 | +0.37 | 9% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina United · Sun Oct 25 vs Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | CESA Triumph Summit | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 10 | 1.25 | LWWLL | +1.01 | -0.56 | 15% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sun Feb 14 at South Carolina United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | South Carolina United | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 12 | +0 | 9 | 1.00 | LLWDW | -0.33 | +0.17 | 3% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Feb 13 vs CESA Triumph Surge See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Atlanta Fire United | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 | 1.00 | DLWWL | +0.37 | -0.23 | 5% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs NTH NASA · Sat Oct 24 at United Futbol Academy · Sun Oct 25 at GSA See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Charlotte SA Gold | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 6 | 0.86 | LLLWL | +0.76 | -0.35 | 1% | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sat Nov 7 vs CESA Triumph Surge See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | South Carolina Surf | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 24 | -23 | 1 | 0.13 | LLDLL | +0.65 | -0.18 | 0% | 10.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at CESA Triumph Surge · Sun Nov 1 at CESA Triumph Summit · Sat Feb 6 vs CESA Triumph Surge See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | CESA Triumph Surge | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 37 | -31 | 1 | 0.13 | LDLLL | +1.21 | -0.43 | 0% | 10.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs South Carolina Surf · Sat Nov 7 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Feb 6 at South Carolina Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.