GSA
ECNL Regional League Boys · Southeast BU13 · 11 teams · Gwinnett Soccer Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.4 for, 1.0 against · 2.21 expected points)
| Season so far | GSA | NTH NASA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 9-0-0 | 5-0-2 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 2.14 |
| Goals for / game | 3.8 | 1.9 |
| Goals against / game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 5 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | W W W W L |
| Biggest win | 9–0 vs CESA Triumph Surge | 4–0 at South Carolina Surf |
| Worst loss | — | 2–6 vs United Futbol Academy |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.01 | +0.54 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.97 | +0.26 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 2–1 at NTH NASA (W)
Common opponents: Atlanta Fire United — we 3–0; they 2–0. Charlotte SA Gold — we 6–1; they 1–0. South Carolina Surf — we 3–0; they 4–0.
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 68% / draw 18% / loss 14%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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They arrive in form
NTH NASA have won 4 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the NTH NASA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (GSA – NTH NASA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.80 PPG |
1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.70 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 49%
- 2nd 50%
- 3rd 1%
- 4th <1%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
39 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link GSA to NTH NASA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
17 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.36 · 2nd hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
NTH NASA 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +5 |
Home Rabbit Hill Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–1 | 2.21 | 2.92 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
Atlanta Fire United 8th · 2-1-4 · GD -4 |
Home Rabbit Hill Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
3–0 | 2.60 | 2.89 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM |
United Futbol Academy 2nd · 8-1-0 · GD +37 |
Home Rabbit Hill Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–2 | 1.44 | 2.77 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 09:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 4th · 4-2-2 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.04 | 2.71 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 09:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Premier 5th · 3-2-3 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–0 | 2.30 | 2.68 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
South Carolina United 7th · 2-3-4 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–0 | 2.23 | 2.65 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Charlotte SA Gold 9th · 2-0-5 · GD -10 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
3–0 | 2.62 | 2.65 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 09:00 AM |
United Futbol Academy 2nd · 8-1-0 · GD +37 |
Away Fowler Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–2 | 1.14 | 2.56 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 09:00 AM |
South Carolina Surf 10th · 0-1-7 · GD -23 |
Away far trip
Shea Family Fields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
3–0 | 2.88 | 2.58 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 09:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Premier 5th · 3-2-3 · GD +1 |
Home Rabbit Hill Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
2–0 | 2.49 | 2.58 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 09:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 4th · 4-2-2 · GD +9 |
Home Rabbit Hill Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–1 | 2.28 | 2.56 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | GSA | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 6 | +28 | 27 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.97 | +0.36 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NTH NASA · Sun Oct 25 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sun Nov 1 vs United Futbol Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | United Futbol Academy | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 45 | 8 | +37 | 25 | 2.78 | WWWWW | -0.97 | +0.24 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sun Oct 25 vs NTH NASA · Sun Nov 1 at GSA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | NTH NASA | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 15 | 2.14 | LWWWW | +0.26 | -0.30 | 96% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 at Atlanta Fire United · Sat Oct 24 at GSA · Sun Oct 25 at United Futbol Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 14 | 1.75 | WWLDW | -0.70 | +0.31 | 74% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Charlotte SA Gold · Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina United · Sat Nov 7 vs NTH NASA See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Concorde Fire Premier | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 11 | 1.38 | WLLDW | -0.61 | +0.37 | 8% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina United · Sun Oct 25 vs Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | CESA Triumph Summit | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 10 | 1.25 | LWWLL | +1.01 | -0.56 | 15% | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sun Feb 14 at South Carolina United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | South Carolina United | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 12 | +0 | 9 | 1.00 | LLWDW | -0.33 | +0.17 | 2% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Feb 13 vs CESA Triumph Surge See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Atlanta Fire United | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 | 1.00 | DLWWL | +0.37 | -0.23 | 4% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs NTH NASA · Sat Oct 24 at United Futbol Academy · Sun Oct 25 at GSA See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Charlotte SA Gold | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 6 | 0.86 | LLLWL | +0.76 | -0.35 | 1% | 8.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sat Nov 7 vs CESA Triumph Surge See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | South Carolina Surf | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 24 | -23 | 1 | 0.13 | LLDLL | +0.65 | -0.18 | 0% | 10.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at CESA Triumph Surge · Sun Nov 1 at CESA Triumph Summit · Sat Feb 6 vs CESA Triumph Surge See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | CESA Triumph Surge | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 37 | -31 | 1 | 0.13 | LDLLL | +1.21 | -0.43 | 0% | 10.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs South Carolina Surf · Sat Nov 7 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Feb 6 at South Carolina Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.95 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.