Union FC
ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU13 · 24 teams · Union Sacramento FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:00 AM
KIPP Summit Academy, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.9 against · 1.08 expected points)
| Season so far | Union FC | Sheriffs FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 18th | 19th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-5 | 1-2-4 |
| Points per game | 0.86 | 0.71 |
| Goals for / game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals against / game | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 4 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W L L | L D D L L |
| Biggest win | 1–0 vs Clovis Crossfire | 1–0 vs Stanford Strikers |
| Worst loss | 0–5 at Walnut Creek Surf | 2–7 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.43 | -1.26 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.02 | -0.41 |
Common opponents: Solano Surf — we 3–2; they 2–3.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
Sheriffs FC concede 2.9/game; worst result 2–7 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–3 at Turlock Academica Jrs, 0–2 at Fruitridge FC, 0–3 at San Jose Rush, 0–5 at Walnut Creek Surf.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 29%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 08:00 AM at KIPP Summit Academy.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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Early kickoff
Game time 08:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
Livermore Fusion SC sit 17th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.86.A point moves us above Livermore Fusion SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sheriffs FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Union FC – Sheriffs FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 0.88 PPG |
18th— holds | 17th▲ up 1 | 18th— holds |
| Win 1.13 PPG |
16th▲ up 2 | 16th▲ up 2 | 18th— holds |
| Draw 0.88 PPG |
18th— holds | 17th▲ up 1 | 18th— holds |
| Loss 0.75 PPG |
19th▼ down 1 | 19th▼ down 1 | 21st▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 17th if every rival drops points, and as low as 18th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th <1%
- 9th <1%
- 10th
- 11th <1%
- 12th <1%
- 13th 1%
- 14th 1%
- 15th 2%
- 16th 5%
- 17th 9%
- 18th 17%
- 19th 21%
- 20th 20%
- 21st 15%
- 22nd 7%
- 23rd 1%
- 24th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.06 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 3.00 (+2.14) | 2nd (2.40) | 42 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | FC Fresno Academy | 3.00 (+2.14) | 1st (2.62) | 42 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Stockton TLJ FC | 2.43 (+1.57) | 3rd (2.31) | 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Walnut Creek Surf | 2.29 (+1.43) | 7th (2.00) | 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 5 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 2.29 (+1.43) | 6th (2.05) | 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 6 | San Jose Rush | 2.25 (+1.39) | 4th (2.31) | 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 7 | East County Revolution FC | 1.86 (+1.00) | 13th (1.38) | 24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 8 | CVFA | 1.75 (+0.89) | 5th (2.10) | 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 9 | Stanford Strikers | 1.71 (+0.85) | 9th (1.52) | 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 10 | South Valley Chivas | 1.57 (+0.71) | 11th (1.42) | 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 11 | Central Valley Premier FC -RL | 1.57 (+0.71) | 14th (1.34) | 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 12 | SF United FC | 1.43 (+0.57) | 8th (1.70) | 17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 13 | Sierra Surf | 1.33 (+0.47) | 10th (1.52) | 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 14 | Fruitridge FC | 1.25 (+0.39) | 12th (1.40) | 14 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 15 | Dnamo FC Bayern | 1.14 (+0.28) | 16th (1.19) | 13 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 16 | Turlock Academica Jrs | 1.00 (+0.14) | 17th (1.06) | A point next game |
| 17 | Livermore Fusion SC | 1.00 (+0.14) | 15th (1.29) | A point next game |
How the results connect
18 chains · 13 teams
Paths of results that link Union FC to Sheriffs FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.14 · 17th hardest of 24
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 08:00 AM |
Sheriffs FC 19th · 1-2-4 · GD -12 |
Away far trip
KIPP Summit Academy |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.08 | 0.89 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 08:50 AM |
SF United FC 12th · 3-1-3 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
Silver Terrace |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–2 | 0.34 | 0.82 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 10:35 AM |
Dnamo FC Bayern 15th · 2-2-3 · GD -4 |
Home Larchmont Community Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.92 | 0.83 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 10:35 AM |
South Valley United Soccer Club 5th · 5-1-1 · GD +11 |
Home Larchmont Community Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–2 | 0.33 | 0.79 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 10:35 AM |
Stockton TLJ FC 3rd · 5-2-0 · GD +17 |
Home Larchmont Community Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–3 | 0.15 | 0.74 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 10:35 AM |
East County Revolution FC 7th · 4-1-2 · GD -2 |
Home Larchmont Community Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.93 | 0.75 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Stanford Strikers 9th · 4-0-3 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–2 | 0.46 | 0.73 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 10:35 AM |
Legends FC 23rd · 0-2-5 · GD -18 |
Home Larchmont Community Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.44 | 0.78 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 10:35 AM |
East Bay United 22nd · 0-2-5 · GD -14 |
Home Larchmont Community Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.43 | 0.82 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 7 | +27 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.10 | +0.61 | 82% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Mar 13 vs East County Revolution FC · Sat Oct 24 vs CVFA · Sat Oct 31 at Stockton TLJ FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Fresno Academy | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | +23 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.26 | +0.39 | 98% | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stanford Strikers · Sun Oct 25 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Nov 7 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Stockton TLJ FC | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 17 | 2.43 | WWWWW | +0.45 | +0.05 | 74% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Nov 7 at Clovis Crossfire See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Walnut Creek Surf | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 16 | 2.29 | WWLWW | -0.55 | +0.32 | 15% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Oct 31 at Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Nov 7 vs San Ramon FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 16 | 2.29 | LDWWW | -0.26 | -0.05 | 22% | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 31 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Solano Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | San Jose Rush | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 6 | +23 | 18 | 2.25 | DWWWW | -0.15 | -0.21 | 77% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dnamo FC Bayern · Sat Nov 7 vs Sheriffs FC · Sat Mar 13 vs Clovis Crossfire See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | East County Revolution FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 13 | 1.86 | WWLWL | -0.43 | +0.47 | 0% | 12.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Fri Mar 13 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Solano Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Livermore Fusion SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | CVFA | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 7 | 1.75 | WDWL | +0.47 | -0.06 | 32% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at Sierra Surf · Sat Oct 10 at Solano Surf · Sat Oct 17 at Turlock Academica Jrs See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Stanford Strikers | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 12 | 1.71 | WWWLW | -0.87 | +0.15 | 0% | 10.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Fresno Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Dnamo FC Bayern · Sat Nov 7 at SF United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | South Valley Chivas | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 11 | 1.57 | LWWDW | -0.40 | +0.23 | 0% | 12.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Fresno Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Central Valley Premier FC -RL | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 11 | 1.57 | DLWWL | -0.17 | +0.17 | 0% | 13.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Mar 13 vs Sierra Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | SF United FC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 10 | 1.43 | WLDLL | +0.35 | -0.38 | 1% | 8.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Oct 31 vs Union FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Stanford Strikers See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Sierra Surf | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 8 | 1.33 | DLLDW | +0.52 | -0.44 | 0% | 10.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 vs CVFA · Sat Oct 24 at San Ramon FC · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Fruitridge FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 10 | 1.25 | DWWLL | +0.82 | -0.04 | 0% | 12.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs East Bay United · Sat Nov 7 at CVFA · Sat Mar 13 vs Stockton TLJ FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Dnamo FC Bayern | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 | 1.14 | WLDLD | +0.14 | +0.08 | 0% | 15.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs San Jose Rush · Sat Oct 31 vs Stanford Strikers · Sat Nov 7 at Union FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Turlock Academica Jrs | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 | 1.00 | WLLLL | -0.40 | +0.17 | 0% | 16.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs CVFA · Sat Oct 24 at SF United FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Walnut Creek Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Livermore Fusion SC | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 | 1.00 | LDLLW | +0.67 | -0.43 | 0% | 13.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Oct 31 vs East Bay United · Sat Nov 7 at East County Revolution FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Union FC | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 20 | -15 | 6 | 0.86 | LLWLL | +0.02 | -0.14 | 0% | 19.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Oct 31 at SF United FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Dnamo FC Bayern See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | Sheriffs FC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 5 | 0.71 | LLDDL | -0.41 | -0.30 | 0% | 18.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union FC · Sat Oct 31 vs San Ramon FC · Sat Nov 7 at San Jose Rush See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | Solano Surf | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 31 | -25 | 3 | 0.50 | LLWLL | +0.25 | +0.65 | 0% | 22.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs CVFA · Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 at East County Revolution FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | Clovis Crossfire | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 3 | 0.43 | LWLLL | +0.11 | +0.72 | 0% | 21.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sat Oct 31 vs CVFA · Sat Nov 7 vs Stockton TLJ FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | East Bay United | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 2 | 0.29 | LLLDD | +0.26 | -0.37 | 0% | 20.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Fruitridge FC · Sat Oct 31 at Livermore Fusion SC · Sat Nov 7 at Legends FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | Legends FC | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 2 | 0.29 | DLDLL | +0.71 | -0.88 | 0% | 19.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Solano Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Sierra Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs East Bay United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 24 | San Ramon FC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 31 | -29 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.41 | -0.04 | 0% | 23.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sierra Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Nov 7 at Walnut Creek Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.