TableChase Clubs

San Jose Rush

ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU13 · 24 teams · San Jose Rush (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 16 minutes ago.
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6th
5-3-0 record · 8 played
2.25 points per game
+23 goal diff · 29–6
DWWWWlast 5
79% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.4
-0.15 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 05:10 PM

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San Jose Rush
6th · 2.25 PPG
at
Dnamo FC Bayern
15th · 1.14 PPG

Crocker Amazon soccer fields, Field 4 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.9 for, 0.9 against · 2.50 expected points)

Season so farSan Jose RushDnamo FC Bayern
Position6th15th
Record (W-D-L)5-3-02-2-3
Points per game2.251.14
Goals for / game3.61.0
Goals against / game0.81.6
Clean sheets42
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W W W W DD L D L W
Biggest win11–1 vs Legends FC2–0 at Turlock Academica Jrs
Worst loss—0–4 at FC Fresno Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.14-0.36
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.15+0.14

Common opponents: Sierra Surf — we 2–2; they 0–1. Fruitridge FC — we 1–0; they 1–0.

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 79% chance; likely score 2–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 05:10 PM at Crocker Amazon soccer fields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    South Valley United Soccer Club sit 5th on 2.29 PPG; we are on 2.25.

    A point moves us above South Valley United Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Dnamo FC Bayern game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Jose Rush – Dnamo FC Bayern) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.33 PPG
4th▲ up 2 4th▲ up 2 6th— holds
Win
2.33 PPG
4th▲ up 2 4th▲ up 2 6th— holds
Draw
2.11 PPG
6th— holds 5th▲ up 1 6th— holds
Loss
2.00 PPG
6th— holds 5th▲ up 1 6th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

7% finish 1st
79% top 4
21% below the top 4
3.4 average finish
  1. 1st 7%
  2. 2nd 21%
  3. 3rd 28%
  4. 4th 23%
  5. 5th 13%
  6. 6th 6%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Diablo Valley Futbol Club 3.00 (+0.75) 2nd (2.40) 30 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
2 FC Fresno Academy 3.00 (+0.75) 1st (2.62) 30 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
3 Stockton TLJ FC 2.43 (+0.18) 3rd (2.31) 21 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
4 Walnut Creek Surf 2.29 (+0.04) 7th (2.00) A point next game
5 South Valley United Soccer Club 2.29 (+0.04) 6th (2.05) A point next game

How the results connect

18 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link San Jose Rush to Dnamo FC Bayern through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us
3 even
3 favour them
+3.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 0–1 2–2 1–0 3–0 0–2 2–2 3–1 0–2 1–1 0–1 1–1 3–2 0–3 0–2 4–0 4–0 0–0 0–1 0–2 San Jose Rush 6th Fruitridge FC 14th Sierra Surf 13th Union FC 18th Stockton TLJ FC 3rd Livermore Fusion SC 17th South Valley United… 5th Turlock Academica J… 16th SF United FC 12th FC Fresno Academy 2nd Dnamo FC Bayern 15th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 12th 24th Aug 15 Aug 22 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.21 · 18th hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
05:10 PM
Dnamo FC Bayern
15th · 2-2-3 · GD -4
Away far trip
Crocker Amazon soccer fields
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
2–0 2.50 2.28 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
02:15 PM
Sheriffs FC
19th · 1-2-4 · GD -12
Home
San Jose High School · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
4–0 2.89 2.34 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Clovis Crossfire
21st · 1-0-6 · GD -12
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
4–0 2.85 2.39 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
TBD
South Valley Chivas
10th · 3-2-2 · GD -1
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
2–1 2.40 2.39 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
TBD
CVFA
8th · 2-1-1 · GD +14
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.81 2.34 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
11:00 AM
Central Valley Premier FC -RL
11th · 3-2-2 · GD -3
Away far trip
Riverway Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
3–0 2.53 2.36 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
TBD
Solano Surf
20th · 1-0-5 · GD -25
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
6–0 2.95 2.40 Bank it
Sat May 1
12:30 PM
FC Fresno Academy
2nd · 7-0-0 · GD +23
Away far trip
Virginia R. Boris elementary school
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–1 1.00 2.31 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Diablo Valley Futbol Club 7700 347+27 213.00 WWWWW -1.10 +0.61 83% 2.9
2 FC Fresno Academy 7700 252+23 213.00 WWWWW -0.26 +0.39 97% 1.7
3 Stockton TLJ FC 7520 236+17 172.43 WWWWW +0.45 +0.05 73% 3.6
4 Walnut Creek Surf 7511 238+15 162.29 WWLWW -0.55 +0.32 15% 6.3
5 South Valley United Soccer Club 7511 176+11 162.29 LDWWW -0.26 -0.05 21% 5.8
6 San Jose Rush 8530 296+23 182.25 DWWWW -0.15 -0.21 79% 3.4
7 East County Revolution FC 7412 810-2 131.86 WWLWL -0.43 +0.47 0% 12.8
8 CVFA 4211 184+14 71.75 WDWL +0.47 -0.06 31% 5.3
9 Stanford Strikers 7403 1512+3 121.71 WWWLW -0.87 +0.15 0% 10.9
10 South Valley Chivas 7322 1011-1 111.57 LWWDW -0.40 +0.23 0% 12.1
11 Central Valley Premier FC -RL 7322 1013-3 111.57 DLWWL -0.17 +0.17 0% 13.0
12 SF United FC 7313 137+6 101.43 WLDLL +0.35 -0.38 1% 8.9
13 Sierra Surf 6222 55+0 81.33 DLLDW +0.52 -0.44 0% 10.9
14 Fruitridge FC 8314 88+0 101.25 DWWLL +0.82 -0.04 0% 12.2
15 Dnamo FC Bayern 7223 711-4 81.14 WLDLD +0.14 +0.08 0% 15.0
16 Turlock Academica Jrs 6204 67-1 61.00 WLLLL -0.40 +0.17 0% 16.3
17 Livermore Fusion SC 7214 710-3 71.00 LDLLW +0.67 -0.43 0% 13.8
18 Union FC 7205 520-15 60.86 LLWLL +0.02 -0.14 0% 19.0
19 Sheriffs FC 7124 820-12 50.71 LLDDL -0.41 -0.30 0% 18.2
20 Solano Surf 6105 631-25 30.50 LLWLL +0.25 +0.65 0% 22.7
21 Clovis Crossfire 7106 416-12 30.43 LWLLL +0.11 +0.72 0% 21.7
22 East Bay United 7025 519-14 20.29 LLLDD +0.26 -0.37 0% 20.4
23 Legends FC 7025 725-18 20.29 DLDLL +0.71 -0.88 0% 19.4
24 San Ramon FC 7007 231-29 00.00 LLLLL +0.41 -0.04 0% 23.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.