Sierra Surf

ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU13 · 24 teams · Sierra Surf SC (all teams)

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13th

2-2-2 record · 6 played

1.33 points per game

+0 goal diff · 5–5

DLLDWlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.9

+0.52 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM

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Sierra Surf
13th · 1.33 PPG

San Ramon FC
24th · 0.00 PPG

Rancho San Ramon Community Park, Field 1 ↗ far trip

77% 16%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.3 for, 0.5 against · 2.46 expected points)

Season so far	Sierra Surf	San Ramon FC
Position	13th	24th
Record (W-D-L)	2-2-2	0-0-7
Points per game	1.33	0.00
Goals for / game	0.8	0.3
Goals against / game	0.8	4.4
Clean sheets	3	0
Held scoreless	3	5
Form (recent first)	W D L L D	L L L L L
Biggest win	2–0 vs East County Revolution FC	—
Worst loss	0–2 vs Fruitridge FC	1–10 at CVFA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.11	-2.65
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.52	+0.41

Common opponents: East County Revolution FC — we 2–0; they 0–1.

Game plan

They struggle to score
San Ramon FC average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 5 of 7.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
San Ramon FC concede 4.4/game; worst result 1–10 at CVFA.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 at FC Fresno Academy, 0–2 vs Fruitridge FC, 0–0 vs South Valley Chivas.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 77% chance; likely score 2–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
San Ramon FC have lost 7 straight (form: LLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 04:00 PM at Rancho San Ramon Community Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
SF United FC sit 12th on 1.43 PPG; we are on 1.33.
A point moves us above SF United FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the San Ramon FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sierra Surf – San Ramon FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.57 PPG	10th▲ up 3	10th▲ up 3	12th▲ up 1
Win 1.57 PPG	10th▲ up 3	10th▲ up 3	12th▲ up 1
Draw 1.29 PPG	13th— holds	14th▼ down 1	16th▼ down 3
Loss 1.14 PPG	14th▼ down 1	15th▼ down 2	17th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

10.9 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th <1%
5th 1%
6th 1%
7th 5%
8th 12%
9th 15%
10th 16%
11th 12%
12th 11%
13th 8%
14th 5%
15th 6%
16th 4%
17th 2%
18th 1%
19th <1%
20th <1%
21st
22nd
23rd
24th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Diablo Valley Futbol Club	3.00 (+1.67)	2nd (2.40)	40 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	FC Fresno Academy	3.00 (+1.67)	1st (2.62)	40 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Stockton TLJ FC	2.43 (+1.10)	3rd (2.31)	31 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
4	Walnut Creek Surf	2.29 (+0.96)	7th (2.00)	29 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
5	South Valley United Soccer Club	2.29 (+0.96)	6th (2.05)	29 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
6	San Jose Rush	2.25 (+0.92)	4th (2.31)	28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
7	East County Revolution FC	1.86 (+0.53)	13th (1.38)	22 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
8	CVFA	1.75 (+0.42)	5th (2.10)	20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
9	Stanford Strikers	1.71 (+0.38)	9th (1.52)	20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
10	South Valley Chivas	1.57 (+0.24)	11th (1.42)	A point next game
11	Central Valley Premier FC -RL	1.57 (+0.24)	14th (1.34)	A point next game
12	SF United FC	1.43 (+0.10)	8th (1.70)	A point next game

How the results connect

11 chains · 14 teams

Paths of results that link Sierra Surf to San Ramon FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

10 favour us

1 favour them

+3.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.44 · 23rd hardest of 24

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Sep 19 04:30 PM no score posted	CVFA 8th · 2-1-1 · GD +14	Home North Valleys regional Park	●●●●● Very tough	19%	0–1	0.79	1.26	Upside
Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM	San Ramon FC 24th · 0-0-7 · GD -29	Away far trip Rancho San Ramon Community Park	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	2–0	2.46	1.41	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 12:25 PM	Legends FC 23rd · 0-2-5 · GD -18	Away far trip Andrew Hill High School · turf	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	1–0	2.04	1.48	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 01:30 PM	Turlock Academica Jrs 16th · 2-0-4 · GD -1	Home John Kemp Community Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	44%	1–0	1.64	1.49	Swing game
Sat Mar 13 01:00 PM	Central Valley Premier FC -RL 11th · 3-2-2 · GD -3	Away far trip Riverway Sports Park	●●●●○ Tough	41%	1–0	1.52	1.50	Upside
Sat Apr 3 03:00 PM	Clovis Crossfire 21st · 1-0-6 · GD -12	Home South Valleys Regional Park	●●○○○ Lean win	62%	1–0	2.10	1.55	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 TBD	Walnut Creek Surf 4th · 5-1-1 · GD +15	Away	●●●●● Very tough	19%	0–1	0.81	1.49	Upside
Sat Apr 17 01:00 PM	East Bay United 22nd · 0-2-5 · GD -14	Away far trip Emeryville Center for Community Life	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	1–0	1.96	1.52	Swing game
Sun Apr 25 08:00 AM	Sheriffs FC 19th · 1-2-4 · GD -12	Away far trip Edendale Middle School	●●●○○ Toss-up	56%	1–0	1.93	1.55	Swing game
Sat May 1 04:00 PM	South Valley United Soccer Club 5th · 5-1-1 · GD +11	Home South Valleys Regional Park	●●●●○ Tough	25%	0–1	1.04	1.52	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Diablo Valley Futbol Club

+27

3.00

WWWWW

-1.10

+0.61

83%

2.9

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Fruitridge FC (14th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Legends FC (23rd)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Clovis Crossfire (21st)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	San Ramon FC (24th)	8–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Sheriffs FC (19th)	7–2
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (17th)	3–1
W	Sat Aug 15	at	East Bay United (22nd)	5–1

Next: Fri Mar 13 vs East County Revolution FC · Sat Oct 24 vs CVFA · Sat Oct 31 at Stockton TLJ FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Mar 13 (no score yet)	vs	East County Revolution FC (7th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	CVFA (8th)	2–2	49%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Fresno Academy (2nd)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Solano Surf (20th)	7–1	98%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Dnamo FC Bayern (15th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	2–2	49%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (5th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat May 1	vs	SF United FC (12th)	2–1	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Fresno Academy

+23

3.00

WWWWW

-0.26

+0.39

97%

1.7

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Solano Surf (20th)	11–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	SF United FC (12th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	CVFA (8th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Dnamo FC Bayern (15th)	4–0
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Sierra Surf (13th)	1–0
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Legends FC (23rd)	3–1
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Fruitridge FC (14th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stanford Strikers · Sun Oct 25 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Nov 7 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Stanford Strikers (9th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	South Valley Chivas (10th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (1st)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Livermore Fusion SC (17th)	2–0	75%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Clovis Crossfire (21st)	3–0	90%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	San Ramon FC (24th)	6–0	99%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	1–1	47%
·	Sat May 1	vs	San Jose Rush (6th)	1–1	52%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Stockton TLJ FC

+17

2.43

WWWWW

+0.45

+0.05

73%

3.6

W	Sat Oct 17	at	SF United FC (12th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Livermore Fusion SC (17th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (11th)	6–0
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	South Valley Chivas (10th)	6–0
D	Sun Aug 16	at	CVFA (8th)	1–1
D	Sat Aug 15	vs	San Jose Rush (6th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Nov 7 at Clovis Crossfire See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (1st)	2–2	48%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Clovis Crossfire (21st)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Fruitridge FC (14th)	1–0	59%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Union FC (18th)	3–0	91%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Solano Surf (20th)	7–0	99%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	East County Revolution FC (7th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	FC Fresno Academy (2nd)	1–1	30%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Stanford Strikers (9th)	3–1	79%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Walnut Creek Surf

+15

2.29

WWLWW

-0.55

+0.32

15%

6.3

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Union FC (18th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (17th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (5th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	SF United FC (12th)	1–0
W	Sat Aug 22	at	East Bay United (22nd)	4–0
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Solano Surf (20th)	7–0
D	Sat Aug 15	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (11th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Oct 31 at Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Nov 7 vs San Ramon FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	San Ramon FC (24th)	5–0	98%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Stanford Strikers (9th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	FC Fresno Academy (2nd)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Sierra Surf (13th)	1–0	58%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (1st)	2–2	33%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Dnamo FC Bayern (15th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat May 1	at	East County Revolution FC (7th)	2–1	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Valley United Soccer Club

+11

2.29

LDWWW

-0.26

-0.05

21%

5.8

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sheriffs FC (19th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Clovis Crossfire (21st)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	4–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Fruitridge FC (14th)	0–0
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	San Jose Rush (6th)	0–4
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	East Bay United (22nd)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Legends FC (23rd)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 31 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Solano Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	South Valley Chivas (10th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (11th)	2–0	70%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Solano Surf (20th)	4–0	91%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Union FC (18th)	2–0	81%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	East County Revolution FC (7th)	2–0	68%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	CVFA (8th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	1–0	65%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	SF United FC (12th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat May 1	at	Sierra Surf (13th)	1–0	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Jose Rush

+23

2.25

DWWWW

-0.15

-0.21

79%

3.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Fruitridge FC (14th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Legends FC (23rd)	11–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Union FC (18th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	East County Revolution FC (7th)	5–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (17th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (5th)	4–0
D	Sun Aug 16	vs	Sierra Surf (13th)	2–2
D	Sat Aug 15	at	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dnamo FC Bayern · Sat Nov 7 vs Sheriffs FC · Sat Mar 13 vs Clovis Crossfire See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Dnamo FC Bayern (15th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sheriffs FC (19th)	4–0	95%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Clovis Crossfire (21st)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	South Valley Chivas (10th)	2–1	75%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	CVFA (8th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (11th)	3–0	80%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Solano Surf (20th)	6–0	98%
·	Sat May 1	at	FC Fresno Academy (2nd)	1–1	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East County Revolution FC

-2

1.86

WWLWL

-0.43

+0.47

12.8

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Sierra Surf (13th)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	San Ramon FC (24th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	San Jose Rush (6th)	0–5
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	1–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Clovis Crossfire (21st)	2–1
D	Sun Aug 16	at	South Valley Chivas (10th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Sheriffs FC (19th)	3–1

Next: Fri Mar 13 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Solano Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Livermore Fusion SC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Mar 13 (no score yet)	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (1st)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Solano Surf (20th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (17th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	CVFA (8th)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (5th)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Union FC (18th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Fruitridge FC (14th)	0–1	28%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	1–2	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CVFA

+14

1.75

WDWL

+0.47

-0.06

31%

5.3

L	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Fresno Academy (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	San Ramon FC (24th)	10–1
D	Sun Aug 16	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Stanford Strikers (9th)	6–0

Next: Sat Sep 19 at Sierra Surf · Sat Oct 10 at Solano Surf · Sat Oct 17 at Turlock Academica Jrs See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 19 (no score yet)	at	Sierra Surf (13th)	1–0	59%
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Solano Surf (20th)	6–1	97%
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (1st)	2–2	33%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Clovis Crossfire (21st)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Fruitridge FC (14th)	2–0	66%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	East County Revolution FC (7th)	3–0	81%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	East Bay United (22nd)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Dnamo FC Bayern (15th)	3–0	82%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	San Jose Rush (6th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (5th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (11th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat May 1	at	South Valley Chivas (10th)	2–1	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Stanford Strikers

1.71

WWWLW

-0.87

+0.15

10.9

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (11th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Fruitridge FC (14th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	San Ramon FC (24th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	East Bay United (22nd)	3–1
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Solano Surf (20th)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Sheriffs FC (19th)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	CVFA (8th)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Fresno Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Dnamo FC Bayern · Sat Nov 7 at SF United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Fresno Academy (2nd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Dnamo FC Bayern (15th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SF United FC (12th)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Legends FC (23rd)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Livermore Fusion SC (17th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Union FC (18th)	2–1	75%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Clovis Crossfire (21st)	2–0	70%
·	Sat May 1	at	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	1–3	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Valley Chivas

-1

1.57

LWWDW

-0.40

+0.23

12.1

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Clovis Crossfire (21st)	2–1
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Sierra Surf (13th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	East Bay United (22nd)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Union FC (18th)	5–1
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	0–6
D	Sun Aug 16	vs	East County Revolution FC (7th)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Livermore Fusion SC (17th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Fresno Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (5th)	1–1	22%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Fresno Academy (2nd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (11th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Solano Surf (20th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	San Jose Rush (6th)	1–2	11%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	San Ramon FC (24th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat May 1	vs	CVFA (8th)	1–2	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Central Valley Premier FC -RL

-3

1.57

DLWWL

-0.17

+0.17

13.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Stanford Strikers (9th)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Dnamo FC Bayern (15th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	0–6
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	Legends FC (23rd)	1–1
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	San Ramon FC (24th)	3–0
D	Sat Aug 15	at	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Mar 13 vs Sierra Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (5th)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	South Valley Chivas (10th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Sierra Surf (13th)	0–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	East Bay United (22nd)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Sheriffs FC (19th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	San Jose Rush (6th)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	CVFA (8th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Clovis Crossfire (21st)	1–0	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SF United FC

1.43

WLDLL

+0.35

-0.38

8.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Fresno Academy (2nd)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Dnamo FC Bayern (15th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	0–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Livermore Fusion SC (17th)	1–0
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Clovis Crossfire (21st)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Solano Surf (20th)	6–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Oct 31 vs Union FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Stanford Strikers See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Union FC (18th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Stanford Strikers (9th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Sheriffs FC (19th)	2–0	70%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	San Ramon FC (24th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	East Bay United (22nd)	2–0	78%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Fruitridge FC (14th)	1–0	38%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (5th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat May 1	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (1st)	1–2	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sierra Surf

1.33

DLLDW

+0.52

-0.44

10.9

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	East County Revolution FC (7th)	2–0
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	South Valley Chivas (10th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Fruitridge FC (14th)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 22	at	FC Fresno Academy (2nd)	0–1
D	Sun Aug 16	at	San Jose Rush (6th)	2–2
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Dnamo FC Bayern (15th)	1–0

Next: Sat Sep 19 vs CVFA · Sat Oct 24 at San Ramon FC · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 19 (no score yet)	vs	CVFA (8th)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	San Ramon FC (24th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Legends FC (23rd)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	1–0	44%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (11th)	1–0	41%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Clovis Crossfire (21st)	1–0	62%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	East Bay United (22nd)	1–0	57%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Sheriffs FC (19th)	1–0	56%
·	Sat May 1	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (5th)	0–1	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Fruitridge FC

1.25

DWWLL

+0.82

-0.04

12.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	San Jose Rush (6th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (1st)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Stanford Strikers (9th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Sierra Surf (13th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (5th)	0–0
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Union FC (18th)	2–0
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Dnamo FC Bayern (15th)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	FC Fresno Academy (2nd)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs East Bay United · Sat Nov 7 at CVFA · Sat Mar 13 vs Stockton TLJ FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	East Bay United (22nd)	1–0	67%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	CVFA (8th)	0–2	15%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	1–0	46%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Legends FC (23rd)	1–0	63%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	SF United FC (12th)	0–1	32%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	East County Revolution FC (7th)	1–0	42%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Sheriffs FC (19th)	2–0	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dnamo FC Bayern

-4

1.14

WLDLD

+0.14

+0.08

15.0

D	Sat Oct 17	at	East Bay United (22nd)	2–2
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (11th)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	SF United FC (12th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Fresno Academy (2nd)	0–4
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Fruitridge FC (14th)	1–0
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Sierra Surf (13th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs San Jose Rush · Sat Oct 31 vs Stanford Strikers · Sat Nov 7 at Union FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	San Jose Rush (6th)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Stanford Strikers (9th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Union FC (18th)	1–1	54%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	San Ramon FC (24th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	CVFA (8th)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Solano Surf (20th)	3–1	76%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (17th)	1–1	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Turlock Academica Jrs

-1

1.00

WLLLL

-0.40

+0.17

16.3

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (11th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	East County Revolution FC (7th)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Dnamo FC Bayern (15th)	0–2
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Union FC (18th)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 15	at	San Ramon FC (24th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs CVFA · Sat Oct 24 at SF United FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Walnut Creek Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	CVFA (8th)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SF United FC (12th)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Sierra Surf (13th)	0–1	24%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Legends FC (23rd)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Fruitridge FC (14th)	0–1	23%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (5th)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (5th)	0–1	14%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Livermore Fusion SC (17th)	0–1	29%
·	Sat May 1	at	Solano Surf (20th)	2–1	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Livermore Fusion SC

-3

1.00

LDLLW

+0.67

-0.43

13.8

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	San Ramon FC (24th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 19	at	San Jose Rush (6th)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	SF United FC (12th)	0–1
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (1st)	1–3
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	South Valley Chivas (10th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Oct 31 vs East Bay United · Sat Nov 7 at East County Revolution FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Clovis Crossfire (21st)	1–0	51%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	East Bay United (22nd)	1–0	61%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	East County Revolution FC (7th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC Fresno Academy (2nd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Sheriffs FC (19th)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Stanford Strikers (9th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Legends FC (23rd)	1–1	56%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	1–0	41%
·	Sat May 1	at	Dnamo FC Bayern (15th)	1–1	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Union FC

-15

0.86

LLWLL

+0.02

-0.14

19.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 10	at	San Jose Rush (6th)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Solano Surf (20th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	South Valley Chivas (10th)	1–5
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Fruitridge FC (14th)	0–2
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	0–3
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Clovis Crossfire (21st)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Oct 31 at SF United FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Dnamo FC Bayern See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sheriffs FC (19th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SF United FC (12th)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Dnamo FC Bayern (15th)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (5th)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	East County Revolution FC (7th)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Stanford Strikers (9th)	1–2	11%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Legends FC (23rd)	1–1	41%
·	Sat May 1	vs	East Bay United (22nd)	1–1	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sheriffs FC

-12

0.71

LLDDL

-0.41

-0.30

18.2

L	Sat Oct 17	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (5th)	0–5
D	Sat Oct 10	at	East Bay United (22nd)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Legends FC (23rd)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Solano Surf (20th)	2–3
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (1st)	2–7
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Stanford Strikers (9th)	1–0
L	Sat Aug 15	at	East County Revolution FC (7th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union FC · Sat Oct 31 vs San Ramon FC · Sat Nov 7 at San Jose Rush See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Union FC (18th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	San Ramon FC (24th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	San Jose Rush (6th)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	SF United FC (12th)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (17th)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (11th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Clovis Crossfire (21st)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Sierra Surf (13th)	0–1	19%
·	Sat May 1	at	Fruitridge FC (14th)	0–2	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Solano Surf

-25

0.50

LLWLL

+0.25

+0.65

22.7

L	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Fresno Academy (2nd)	0–11
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Union FC (18th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sheriffs FC (19th)	3–2
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Stanford Strikers (9th)	1–2
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	0–7
L	Sat Aug 15	at	SF United FC (12th)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs CVFA · Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 at East County Revolution FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	CVFA (8th)	1–6	1%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Legends FC (23rd)	1–3	24%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	East County Revolution FC (7th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (5th)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	South Valley Chivas (10th)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (1st)	1–7	1%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	0–7	0%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Dnamo FC Bayern (15th)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	San Jose Rush (6th)	0–6	1%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	1–2	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Clovis Crossfire

-12

0.43

LWLLL

+0.11

+0.72

21.7

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	South Valley Chivas (10th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 10	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (5th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (1st)	0–6
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Legends FC (23rd)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 23	at	East County Revolution FC (7th)	1–2
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	SF United FC (12th)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Union FC (18th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sat Oct 31 vs CVFA · Sat Nov 7 vs Stockton TLJ FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (17th)	0–1	22%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	CVFA (8th)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (3rd)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	San Jose Rush (6th)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Sierra Surf (13th)	0–1	13%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	FC Fresno Academy (2nd)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Sheriffs FC (19th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Stanford Strikers (9th)	0–2	13%
·	Sat May 1	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (11th)	0–1	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East Bay United

-14

0.29

LLLDD

+0.26

-0.37

20.4

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Dnamo FC Bayern (15th)	2–2
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Sheriffs FC (19th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	South Valley Chivas (10th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Stanford Strikers (9th)	1–3
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	0–4
L	Sun Aug 16	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (1st)	1–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Fruitridge FC · Sat Oct 31 at Livermore Fusion SC · Sat Nov 7 at Legends FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Fruitridge FC (14th)	0–1	12%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Livermore Fusion SC (17th)	0–1	16%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Legends FC (23rd)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	CVFA (8th)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (11th)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	SF United FC (12th)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Sierra Surf (13th)	0–1	17%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	San Ramon FC (24th)	2–0	65%
·	Sat May 1	at	Union FC (18th)	1–1	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Legends FC

-18

0.29

DLDLL

+0.71

-0.88

19.4

L	Sat Oct 17	at	San Jose Rush (6th)	1–11
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (1st)	1–2
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sheriffs FC (19th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Clovis Crossfire (21st)	1–2
D	Sat Aug 22	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (11th)	1–1
L	Sun Aug 16	at	FC Fresno Academy (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (5th)	1–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Solano Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Sierra Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs East Bay United See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Solano Surf (20th)	3–1	60%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sierra Surf (13th)	0–1	17%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	East Bay United (22nd)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Stanford Strikers (9th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Fruitridge FC (14th)	0–1	16%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (17th)	1–1	22%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Union FC (18th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat May 1	at	San Ramon FC (24th)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Ramon FC

-29

0.00

LLLLL

+0.41

-0.04

23.5

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Livermore Fusion SC (17th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	East County Revolution FC (7th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Stanford Strikers (9th)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (1st)	1–8
L	Sat Aug 22	at	CVFA (8th)	1–10
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (11th)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (16th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sierra Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Nov 7 at Walnut Creek Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sierra Surf (13th)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sheriffs FC (19th)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Walnut Creek Surf (4th)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Dnamo FC Bayern (15th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	SF United FC (12th)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	South Valley Chivas (10th)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Fresno Academy (2nd)	0–6	0%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	East Bay United (22nd)	0–2	16%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Legends FC (23rd)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.