TableChase Clubs

Diablo Valley Futbol Club

ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU13 · 24 teams · Diablo Valley Futbol Club (all teams)

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1st
7-0-0 record · 7 played
3.00 points per game
+27 goal diff · 34–7
WWWWWlast 5
81% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.0
-1.10 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM

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Diablo Valley Futbol Club
1st · 3.00 PPG
vs
CVFA
8th · 1.75 PPG

Marathon/Tesoro Fields, field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.9 for, 2.4 against · 1.65 expected points)

Season so farDiablo Valley Futbol ClubCVFA
Position1st8th
Record (W-D-L)7-0-02-1-1
Points per game3.001.75
Goals for / game4.94.5
Goals against / game1.01.0
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W W WL W D W
Biggest win8–1 vs San Ramon FC10–1 vs San Ramon FC
Worst loss—1–2 vs FC Fresno Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.18+1.87
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.10+0.47

Common opponents: San Ramon FC — we 8–1; they 10–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    CVFA score 4.5/game — well above the league's 1.8.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 49% / draw 18% / loss 33%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the CVFA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Diablo Valley Futbol Club – CVFA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.75 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.75 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1
Loss
2.63 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 1st even if every rival loses, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

20% finish 1st
81% top 4
19% below the top 4
3.0 average finish
  1. 1st 20%
  2. 2nd 29%
  3. 3rd 17%
  4. 4th 15%
  5. 5th 11%
  6. 6th 6%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

9 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Diablo Valley Futbol Club to CVFA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
3 even
5 favour them
-2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
8–1 1–10 2–1 1–3 2–1 7–2 1–0 0–6 3–1 0–2 1–1 3–1 0–2 3–1 5–1 1–3 0–6 1–0 Diablo Valley Futbo… 1st San Ramon FC 24th Legends FC 23rd Sheriffs FC 19th Livermore Fusion SC 17th Fruitridge FC 14th East Bay United 22nd FC Fresno Academy 2nd Stanford Strikers 9th Stockton TLJ FC 3rd CVFA 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 12th 24th Aug 15 Aug 22 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.61 · 3rd hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Fri Mar 13
TBD
no score posted
East County Revolution FC
7th · 4-1-2 · GD -2
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–0 2.63 2.95 Bank it
Sat Oct 24
03:00 PM
CVFA
8th · 2-1-1 · GD +14
Home
Marathon/Tesoro Fields
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–2 1.65 2.81 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM
Stockton TLJ FC
3rd · 5-2-0 · GD +17
Away far trip
Stockton Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
34%
2–2 1.20 2.65 Upside
Sat Nov 7
03:00 PM
FC Fresno Academy
2nd · 7-0-0 · GD +23
Away far trip
Virginia R. Boris elementary school
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.81 2.48 Upside
Sat Apr 3
12:00 PM
Solano Surf
20th · 1-0-5 · GD -25
Away
Octo Inn Soccer Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
7–1 2.95 2.52 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Dnamo FC Bayern
15th · 2-2-3 · GD -4
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.47 2.52 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Walnut Creek Surf
4th · 5-1-1 · GD +15
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–2 1.66 2.45 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
01:00 PM
South Valley United Soccer Club
5th · 5-1-1 · GD +11
Home
Marathon/Tesoro Fields
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
2–1 1.91 2.42 Swing game
Sat May 1
03:00 PM
SF United FC
12th · 3-1-3 · GD +6
Home
Marathon/Tesoro Fields
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.13 2.40 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Diablo Valley Futbol Club 7700 347+27 213.00 WWWWW -1.10 +0.61 81% 3.0
2 FC Fresno Academy 7700 252+23 213.00 WWWWW -0.26 +0.39 97% 1.7
3 Stockton TLJ FC 7520 236+17 172.43 WWWWW +0.45 +0.05 73% 3.6
4 Walnut Creek Surf 7511 238+15 162.29 WWLWW -0.55 +0.32 17% 6.2
5 South Valley United Soccer Club 7511 176+11 162.29 LDWWW -0.26 -0.05 22% 5.8
6 San Jose Rush 8530 296+23 182.25 DWWWW -0.15 -0.21 77% 3.5
7 East County Revolution FC 7412 810-2 131.86 WWLWL -0.43 +0.47 0% 12.8
8 CVFA 4211 184+14 71.75 WDWL +0.47 -0.06 32% 5.3
9 Stanford Strikers 7403 1512+3 121.71 WWWLW -0.87 +0.15 0% 10.8
10 South Valley Chivas 7322 1011-1 111.57 LWWDW -0.40 +0.23 0% 12.1
11 Central Valley Premier FC -RL 7322 1013-3 111.57 DLWWL -0.17 +0.17 0% 13.0
12 SF United FC 7313 137+6 101.43 WLDLL +0.35 -0.38 1% 8.9
13 Sierra Surf 6222 55+0 81.33 DLLDW +0.52 -0.44 0% 10.9
14 Fruitridge FC 8314 88+0 101.25 DWWLL +0.82 -0.04 0% 12.3
15 Dnamo FC Bayern 7223 711-4 81.14 WLDLD +0.14 +0.08 0% 15.0
16 Turlock Academica Jrs 6204 67-1 61.00 WLLLL -0.40 +0.17 0% 16.3
17 Livermore Fusion SC 7214 710-3 71.00 LDLLW +0.67 -0.43 0% 13.7
18 Union FC 7205 520-15 60.86 LLWLL +0.02 -0.14 0% 19.1
19 Sheriffs FC 7124 820-12 50.71 LLDDL -0.41 -0.30 0% 18.3
20 Solano Surf 6105 631-25 30.50 LLWLL +0.25 +0.65 0% 22.7
21 Clovis Crossfire 7106 416-12 30.43 LWLLL +0.11 +0.72 0% 21.7
22 East Bay United 7025 519-14 20.29 LLLDD +0.26 -0.37 0% 20.4
23 Legends FC 7025 725-18 20.29 DLDLL +0.71 -0.88 0% 19.4
24 San Ramon FC 7007 231-29 00.00 LLLLL +0.41 -0.04 0% 23.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.