TKO Premier SC
ECNL Regional League Boys · GMA BU13 · 12 teams · TKO Premier SC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:00 PM
Kalamazoo Soccer Complex, Field 7 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.2 against · 2.17 expected points)
| Season so far | TKO Premier SC | Michigan Rangers FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-0-0 | 4-1-0 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| Goals for / game | 4.7 | 4.4 |
| Goals against / game | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | W W D W W |
| Biggest win | 5–0 vs Nationals SC-Union GMA | 7–0 at Portage SC Green |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.95 | +2.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.19 | -0.84 |
Common opponents: Plymouth Reign — we 4–1; they 5–2. Detroit City FC West — we 5–0; they 2–2. Portage SC Green — we 4–0; they 7–0.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Michigan Rangers FC score 4.4/game — well above the league's 2.1.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Hard to break down
Michigan Rangers FC concede only 0.8/game with 3 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 67% / draw 17% / loss 16%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Michigan Rangers FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (TKO Premier SC – Michigan Rangers FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.71 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.57 PPG |
3rd▼ down 2 | 3rd▼ down 2 | 3rd▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 95%
- 2nd 5%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th <1%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
20 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link TKO Premier SC to Michigan Rangers FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.21 · 11th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 20 01:00 PM no score posted |
Michigan Burn 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +11 |
Home Kalamazoo Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
3–1 | 2.61 | 2.94 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 03:00 PM |
Michigan Rangers FC 3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +18 |
Home Kalamazoo Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.17 | 2.85 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
Nationals SC Capital Area Black 10th · 1-1-6 · GD -32 |
Home Kalamazoo Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 100% |
7–0 | 2.99 | 2.86 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 03:00 PM |
Liverpool FC IA MI Ann Arbor 9th · 2-0-4 · GD -3 |
Home Kalamazoo Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 91% |
3–0 | 2.79 | 2.86 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 03:00 PM |
Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 13/14 GMA 11th · 0-2-4 · GD -10 |
Home Kalamazoo Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
4–0 | 2.90 | 2.86 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | TKO Premier SC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | +27 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.19 | -0.21 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Michigan Burn · Sun Oct 25 vs Michigan Rangers FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC Capital Area Black See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Michigan Burn | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -2.27 | +1.05 | 51% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at TKO Premier SC · Sat Oct 24 vs Legends FC · Sun Oct 25 at Cap City Athletic 1847 See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Michigan Rangers FC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 4 | +18 | 13 | 2.60 | WWDWW | -0.84 | +0.53 | 95% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 · Sun Oct 25 at TKO Premier SC · Sun Nov 1 at Nationals SC-Union GMA See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Detroit City FC West | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 9 | +18 | 16 | 2.29 | WWDWW | -0.31 | +0.35 | 87% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Sun Nov 1 at Michigan Burn · Sat Nov 7 at Legends FC See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Cap City Athletic 1847 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 16 | 2.29 | WWLWW | -0.68 | +1.25 | 54% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Rangers FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Michigan Burn · Sat Nov 7 at Plymouth Reign See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Legends FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 | 1.80 | WWLLW | -0.15 | +0.26 | 11% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Burn · Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Sun Nov 1 at Nationals SC Capital Area Black See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Nationals SC-Union GMA | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 | 1.20 | LLWWL | -0.62 | +0.75 | 0% | 8.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Plymouth Reign · Sun Oct 25 vs Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Detroit City FC West See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Plymouth Reign | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 6 | 1.00 | WLWLL | +0.08 | +0.05 | 1% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Sun Oct 25 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 13/14 GMA · Sat Oct 31 at Michigan Burn See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Liverpool FC IA MI Ann Arbor | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 | 1.00 | LLWLW | +0.28 | -0.12 | 0% | 7.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 13/14 GMA · Sat Oct 31 at Portage SC Green · Sun Nov 1 at TKO Premier SC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Nationals SC Capital Area Black | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 36 | -32 | 4 | 0.50 | LLLLL | +0.48 | +0.06 | 0% | 10.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Portage SC Green · Sat Oct 31 at TKO Premier SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Legends FC See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 13/14 GMA | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 2 | 0.33 | DLLLL | +0.07 | +0.38 | 0% | 10.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Liverpool FC IA MI Ann Arbor · Sun Oct 25 vs Plymouth Reign · Sun Nov 1 at Portage SC Green See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Portage SC Green | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 41 | -37 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.04 | -1.41 | 0% | 11.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC Capital Area Black · Sat Oct 31 vs Liverpool FC IA MI Ann Arbor · Sun Nov 1 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 13/14 GMA See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.06 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.