TableChase Clubs

Liverpool FC IA MI Ann Arbor

ECNL Regional League Boys · GMA BU13 · 12 teams · Liverpool FC-IA Michigan (all teams)

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9th
2-0-4 record · 6 played
1.00 points per game
-3 goal diff · 8–11
LLWLWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.7
+0.28 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM

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Liverpool FC IA MI Ann Arbor
9th · 1.00 PPG
at
Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 13/14 GMA
11th · 0.33 PPG

Clarkston High School pond, Turf Field ↗ · turf far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.5 for, 0.9 against · 1.83 expected points)

Season so farLiverpool FC IA MI Ann ArborLiverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 13/14 GMA
Position9th11th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-40-2-4
Points per game1.000.33
Goals for / game1.30.3
Goals against / game1.82.0
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless44
Form (recent first)W L W L LL L L L D
Biggest win7–0 at Nationals SC Capital Area Black—
Worst loss0–5 vs Detroit City FC West0–3 vs Nationals SC-Union GMA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.27-1.16
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.28+0.07

Common opponents: Cap City Athletic 1847 — we 0–2; they 0–0. Legends FC — we 0–1; they 0–2. Nationals SC Capital Area Black — we 7–0; they 1–1. Detroit City FC West — we 0–5; they 0–3.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 13/14 GMA average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 4 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–2 vs Cap City Athletic 1847, 0–3 at Michigan Rangers FC, 0–1 vs Legends FC, 0–5 vs Detroit City FC West.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 52% / draw 26% / loss 22%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 13/14 GMA have lost 4 straight (form: DLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 03:00 PM at Clarkston High School pond.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Plymouth Reign sit 8th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above Plymouth Reign on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 13/14 GMA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Liverpool FC IA MI Ann Arbor – Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 13/14 GMA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.29 PPG		 7th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 1 9th— holds
Win
1.29 PPG		 7th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 1 9th— holds
Draw
1.00 PPG		 9th— holds 8th▲ up 1 9th— holds
Loss
0.86 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 10th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
7.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th 9%
  7. 7th 29%
  8. 8th 37%
  9. 9th 21%
  10. 10th 2%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 1.91 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 TKO Premier SC 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.86) 27 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Michigan Burn 3.00 (+2.00) 5th (1.89) 27 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
3 Michigan Rangers FC 2.60 (+1.60) 2nd (2.29) 23 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Detroit City FC West 2.29 (+1.29) 3rd (2.13) 20 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Cap City Athletic 1847 2.29 (+1.29) 4th (1.91) 20 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
6 Legends FC 1.80 (+0.80) 6th (1.56) 14 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
7 Nationals SC-Union GMA 1.20 (+0.20) 9th (1.01) A point next game
8 Plymouth Reign 1.00 (+0.00) 7th (1.19) A point next game

How the results connect

17 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Liverpool FC IA MI Ann Arbor to Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 13/14 GMA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

13 favour us
1 even
3 favour them
+2.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 2–0 0–5 3–0 0–2 0–0 7–0 1–1 0–3 2–2 1–0 3–0 1–0 1–3 0–8 5–0 Liverpool FC IA MI … 9th Legends FC 6th Detroit City FC West 4th Cap City Athletic 1… 5th Nationals SC Capita… 10th Michigan Rangers FC 3rd Plymouth Reign 8th Liverpool FC-IA Mic… 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 6th 12th Aug 29 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.12 · 10th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
03:00 PM		 Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 13/14 GMA
11th · 0-2-4 · GD -10		 Away far trip
Clarkston High School pond · turf		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 1–0 1.83 1.12 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
10:00 AM		 Portage SC Green
12th · 0-0-8 · GD -37		 Away far trip
Portage Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 2–0 2.44 1.28 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
03:00 PM		 TKO Premier SC
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +27		 Away far trip
Kalamazoo Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–3 0.15 1.16 Upside
Sun Nov 8
09:30 AM		 Michigan Burn
2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +11		 Home
Mitchell Field		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.84 1.13 Upside
Sat Nov 14
04:00 PM		 Nationals SC-Union GMA
7th · 2-0-3 · GD -4		 Home
Mitchell Field		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 1–1 1.69 1.18 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 TKO Premier SC 6600 281+27 183.00 WWWWW -0.19 -0.21 100% 1.1
2 Michigan Burn 3300 154+11 93.00 WWW -2.27 +1.05 51% 4.4
3 Michigan Rangers FC 5410 224+18 132.60 WWDWW -0.84 +0.53 95% 2.6
4 Detroit City FC West 7511 279+18 162.29 WWDWW -0.31 +0.35 89% 3.3
5 Cap City Athletic 1847 7511 146+8 162.29 WWLWW -0.68 +1.25 53% 4.3
6 Legends FC 5302 86+2 91.80 WWLLW -0.15 +0.26 11% 6.0
7 Nationals SC-Union GMA 5203 711-4 61.20 LLWWL -0.62 +0.75 0% 8.3
8 Plymouth Reign 6204 1513+2 61.00 WLWLL +0.08 +0.05 1% 7.5
9 Liverpool FC IA MI Ann Arbor 6204 811-3 61.00 LLWLW +0.28 -0.12 0% 7.7
10 Nationals SC Capital Area Black 8116 436-32 40.50 LLLLL +0.48 +0.06 0% 10.8
11 Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 13/14 GMA 6024 212-10 20.33 DLLLL +0.07 +0.38 0% 10.6
12 Portage SC Green 8008 441-37 00.00 LLLLL +1.04 -1.41 0% 11.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.06 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.