Nationals SC Capital Area Black
ECNL Regional League Boys · GMA BU13 · 12 teams · Nationals (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:30 PM
Portage Soccer Complex, Field 5 ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.7 for, 2.0 against · 1.27 expected points)
| Season so far | Nationals SC Capital Area Black | Portage SC Green |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 12th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-6 | 0-0-8 |
| Points per game | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Goals against / game | 4.5 | 5.1 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 5 | 5 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L L | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 2–1 at Nationals SC-Union GMA | — |
| Worst loss | 0–8 at Detroit City FC West | 0–7 at Plymouth Reign |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -2.80 | -2.96 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.48 | +1.04 |
Common opponents: Nationals SC-Union GMA — we 2–1; they 1–2. Michigan Rangers FC — we 0–5; they 0–7. Michigan Burn — we 1–7; they 2–5. Plymouth Reign — we 0–4; they 0–7. Detroit City FC West — we 0–8; they 1–6. Cap City Athletic 1847 — we 0–3; they 0–5.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Portage SC Green average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 5 of 8.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Portage SC Green concede 5.1/game; worst result 0–7 at Plymouth Reign.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–5 vs Michigan Rangers FC, 0–7 vs Liverpool FC IA MI Ann Arbor, 0–4 at Plymouth Reign, 0–8 at Detroit City FC West, 0–3 vs Cap City Athletic 1847.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Confidence is low on their side
Portage SC Green have lost 8 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
-
Away game
Kickoff 02:30 PM at Portage Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Portage SC Green game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC Capital Area Black – Portage SC Green) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 0.56 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 11th▼ down 1 |
| Win 0.78 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 11th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 0.56 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 11th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.44 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 11th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 10th even if every rival loses, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th <1%
- 9th 4%
- 10th 32%
- 11th 47%
- 12th 16%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.18 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TKO Premier SC | 3.00 (+2.50) | 1st (2.86) | 29 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Michigan Burn | 3.00 (+2.50) | 5th (1.89) | 29 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Michigan Rangers FC | 2.60 (+2.10) | 2nd (2.29) | 25 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Detroit City FC West | 2.29 (+1.79) | 3rd (2.13) | 22 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Cap City Athletic 1847 | 2.29 (+1.79) | 4th (1.91) | 22 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Legends FC | 1.80 (+1.30) | 6th (1.56) | 16 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 7 | Nationals SC-Union GMA | 1.20 (+0.70) | 9th (1.01) | 10 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection |
| 8 | Plymouth Reign | 1.00 (+0.50) | 7th (1.19) | 7 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 9 | Liverpool FC IA MI Ann Arbor | 1.00 (+0.50) | 8th (1.18) | 7 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection |
How the results connect
29 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Nationals SC Capital Area Black to Portage SC Green through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.06 · 8th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 02:30 PM |
Portage SC Green 12th · 0-0-8 · GD -37 |
Away far trip
Portage Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.27 | 0.59 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
TKO Premier SC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +27 |
Away far trip
Kalamazoo Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–7 | 0.01 | 0.53 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 04:00 PM |
Legends FC 6th · 3-0-2 · GD +2 |
Home Capital Area Sports Plex |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
0–3 | 0.31 | 0.51 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TKO Premier SC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | +27 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.19 | -0.21 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Michigan Burn · Sun Oct 25 vs Michigan Rangers FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC Capital Area Black See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Michigan Burn | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -2.27 | +1.05 | 52% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at TKO Premier SC · Sat Oct 24 vs Legends FC · Sun Oct 25 at Cap City Athletic 1847 See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Michigan Rangers FC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 4 | +18 | 13 | 2.60 | WWDWW | -0.84 | +0.53 | 95% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 · Sun Oct 25 at TKO Premier SC · Sun Nov 1 at Nationals SC-Union GMA See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Detroit City FC West | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 9 | +18 | 16 | 2.29 | WWDWW | -0.31 | +0.35 | 87% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Sun Nov 1 at Michigan Burn · Sat Nov 7 at Legends FC See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Cap City Athletic 1847 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 16 | 2.29 | WWLWW | -0.68 | +1.25 | 54% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Rangers FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Michigan Burn · Sat Nov 7 at Plymouth Reign See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Legends FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 | 1.80 | WWLLW | -0.15 | +0.26 | 11% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Burn · Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Sun Nov 1 at Nationals SC Capital Area Black See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Nationals SC-Union GMA | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 | 1.20 | LLWWL | -0.62 | +0.75 | 0% | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Plymouth Reign · Sun Oct 25 vs Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Detroit City FC West See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Plymouth Reign | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 6 | 1.00 | WLWLL | +0.08 | +0.05 | 1% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Sun Oct 25 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 13/14 GMA · Sat Oct 31 at Michigan Burn See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Liverpool FC IA MI Ann Arbor | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 | 1.00 | LLWLW | +0.28 | -0.12 | 0% | 7.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 13/14 GMA · Sat Oct 31 at Portage SC Green · Sun Nov 1 at TKO Premier SC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Nationals SC Capital Area Black | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 36 | -32 | 4 | 0.50 | LLLLL | +0.48 | +0.06 | 0% | 10.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Portage SC Green · Sat Oct 31 at TKO Premier SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Legends FC See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 13/14 GMA | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 2 | 0.33 | DLLLL | +0.07 | +0.38 | 0% | 10.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Liverpool FC IA MI Ann Arbor · Sun Oct 25 vs Plymouth Reign · Sun Nov 1 at Portage SC Green See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | Portage SC Green | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 41 | -37 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.04 | -1.41 | 0% | 11.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC Capital Area Black · Sat Oct 31 vs Liverpool FC IA MI Ann Arbor · Sun Nov 1 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 13/14 GMA See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.06 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.