Portage SC Green

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Portage Soccer Complex, Field 5 ↗

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.7 against · 1.52 expected points)

Common opponents: Michigan Burn — we 2–5; they 1–7. Detroit City FC West — we 1–6; they 0–8. Plymouth Reign — we 0–7; they 0–4. Nationals SC-Union GMA — we 1–2; they 2–1. Cap City Athletic 1847 — we 0–5; they 0–3. Michigan Rangers FC — we 0–7; they 0–5.

• They struggle to score
  Nationals SC Capital Area Black average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 5 of 8.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Nationals SC Capital Area Black concede 4.5/game; worst result 0–8 at Detroit City FC West.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–7 at Plymouth Reign, 0–5 at Cap City Athletic 1847, 0–5 at Legends FC, 0–7 vs Michigan Rangers FC, 0–4 vs TKO Premier SC.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 43% / draw 22% / loss 35%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• Confidence is low on their side
  Nationals SC Capital Area Black have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• What a win does
  Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 13/14 GMA sit 11th on 0.33 PPG; we are on 0.00.

  A point moves us above Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 13/14 GMA on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Nationals SC Capital Area Black game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Portage SC Green – Nationals SC Capital Area Black) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 12th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th
5. 5th
6. 6th
7. 7th
8. 8th <1%
9. 9th 1%
10. 10th 14%
11. 11th 16%
12. 12th 70%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 0.82 PPG if we win out).