Ohio Premier
ECNL Regional League Boys · GLA BU14 · 10 teams · Ohio Premier (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
OP Training Facility, Field 2 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.3 for, 1.5 against · 2.32 expected points)
| Season so far | Ohio Premier | Ohio Elite SA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-4 | 1-0-6 |
| Points per game | 0.67 | 0.43 |
| Goals for / game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 4.3 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | D L L W L | L L W L L |
| Biggest win | 4–0 vs Blast FC Academy | 10–0 vs Cincinnati Elite FC |
| Worst loss | 1–3 vs Elite FC | 0–9 at Lexington Sporting Club |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.18 | -1.66 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +1.71 | +0.37 |
Common opponents: Ohio Galaxies FC — we 1–2; they 0–8. FC Pride Elite — we 1–2; they 1–5. Blast FC Academy — we 4–0; they 1–3. Elite FC — we 1–3; they 0–2. Lexington Sporting Club — we 1–3; they 0–9. Louisville City Academy — we 2–2; they 0–3.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Ohio Elite SA concede 4.3/game; worst result 0–9 at Lexington Sporting Club.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 73% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Ohio Elite SA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Ohio Premier – Ohio Elite SA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.00 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 0.71 PPG |
7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 0.57 PPG |
9th▼ down 2 | 9th▼ down 2 | 9th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 4%
- 5th 36%
- 6th 32%
- 7th 19%
- 8th 8%
- 9th <1%
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.22 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lexington Sporting Club | 3.00 (+2.33) | 1st (2.69) | 50 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Ohio Galaxies FC | 3.00 (+2.33) | 2nd (2.47) | 50 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Elite FC | 2.50 (+1.83) | 3rd (2.02) | 41 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 4 | FC Pride Elite | 2.40 (+1.73) | 4th (1.88) | 40 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 5 | Blast FC Academy | 1.50 (+0.83) | 7th (1.22) | 23 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 6 | Louisville City Academy | 1.14 (+0.47) | 6th (1.28) | 17 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
How the results connect
24 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Ohio Premier to Ohio Elite SA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.80 · 10th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
Ohio Elite SA 9th · 1-0-6 · GD -18 |
Home OP Training Facility |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
3–1 | 2.32 | 0.90 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
Cincinnati Elite FC 10th · 0-0-7 · GD -78 |
Home OP Training Facility |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
7–0 | 2.97 | 1.16 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 03:00 PM |
Columbus Force 8th · 1-1-4 · GD -14 |
Away far trip
Columbus School for Girls (Kirk Campus) · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.82 | 1.23 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 06:00 PM |
Columbus Force 8th · 1-1-4 · GD -14 |
Home OP Training Facility |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–1 | 2.11 | 1.32 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 05:45 PM |
FC Pride Elite 4th · 4-0-1 · GD +15 |
Home OP Training Facility |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–2 | 1.01 | 1.29 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Ohio Galaxies FC 2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +31 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.46 | 1.22 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 PM |
Lexington Sporting Club 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +42 |
Home OP Training Facility |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–3 | 0.31 | 1.15 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 PM |
Louisville City Academy 6th · 2-2-3 · GD +8 |
Home OP Training Facility |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.35 | 1.17 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Blast FC Academy 5th · 3-0-3 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
2–2 | 1.36 | 1.18 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 01:00 PM |
Elite FC 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +14 |
Away Shelly Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.74 | 1.15 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 11:30 AM |
Ohio Elite SA 9th · 1-0-6 · GD -18 |
Away far trip
Ohio Elite Training Center |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–1 | 2.05 | 1.21 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Cincinnati Elite FC 10th · 0-0-7 · GD -78 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
6–0 | 2.94 | 1.30 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lexington Sporting Club | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 2 | +42 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.09 | +0.14 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Pride Elite · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sat Mar 13 at Ohio Elite SA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Ohio Galaxies FC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 4 | +31 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.63 | +0.21 | 100% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Louisville City Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Lexington Sporting Club · Sat Mar 6 vs Blast FC Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Elite FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 15 | 2.50 | WLWWW | -0.98 | +0.33 | 97% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Blast FC Academy · Sat Mar 6 at FC Pride Elite · Sun Mar 7 at Ohio Galaxies FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Pride Elite | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWWL | -1.23 | +0.35 | 92% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lexington Sporting Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Louisville City Academy · Sat Mar 6 vs Elite FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Blast FC Academy | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 9 | 1.50 | LWLWW | -0.97 | +0.55 | 2% | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Elite FC · Sat Mar 6 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sun Mar 7 at FC Pride Elite See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Louisville City Academy | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 8 | 1.14 | WLLDD | -0.67 | +0.43 | 4% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sun Oct 25 at FC Pride Elite · Sat Mar 13 at Cincinnati Elite FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Ohio Premier | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 4 | 0.67 | LWLLD | +1.71 | -0.80 | 4% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Elite SA · Sun Oct 25 vs Cincinnati Elite FC · Sun Nov 1 at Columbus Force See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Columbus Force | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 4 | 0.67 | LLWDL | +1.72 | -0.59 | 0% | 7.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cincinnati Elite FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Elite SA · Sun Nov 1 vs Ohio Premier See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Ohio Elite SA | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 30 | -18 | 3 | 0.43 | LLWLL | +0.37 | +0.12 | 0% | 8.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Columbus Force · Sat Mar 13 vs Lexington Sporting Club See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Cincinnati Elite FC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 80 | -78 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.19 | +0.62 | 0% | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Columbus Force · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Premier · Sat Mar 13 vs Louisville City Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.79 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.