Lexington Sporting Club

ECNL Regional League Boys · GLA BU14 · 10 teams · Lexington Sporting (all teams)

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1st

7-0-0 record · 7 played

3.00 points per game

+42 goal diff · 44–2

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.2

-1.09 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:15 PM

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Lexington Sporting Club
1st · 3.00 PPG

FC Pride Elite
4th · 2.40 PPG

Pride Performance Center (Turf), Field 1 ↗ · turf far trip

72% 14% 14%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.3 for, 1.5 against · 2.29 expected points)

Season so far	Lexington Sporting Club	FC Pride Elite
Position	1st	4th
Record (W-D-L)	7-0-0	4-0-1
Points per game	3.00	2.40
Goals for / game	6.3	4.4
Goals against / game	0.3	1.4
Clean sheets	5	1
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	L W W W W
Biggest win	15–0 vs Cincinnati Elite FC	10–0 at Cincinnati Elite FC
Worst loss	—	0–4 vs Ohio Galaxies FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+3.69	+1.46
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-1.09	-1.23

Common opponents: Ohio Elite SA — we 9–0; they 5–1. Cincinnati Elite FC — we 15–0; they 10–0. Ohio Premier — we 3–1; they 2–1. Columbus Force — we 6–0; they 5–1.

Game plan

Respect their attack
FC Pride Elite score 4.4/game — well above the league's 2.8.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 02:15 PM at Pride Performance Center (Turf).
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Pride Elite game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lexington Sporting Club – FC Pride Elite) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.75 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1
Loss 2.63 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

80% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.2 average finish

1st 80%
2nd 20%
3rd 1%
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

22 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Lexington Sporting Club to FC Pride Elite through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

17 favour us

1 even

4 favour them

+2.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.14 · 7th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 02:15 PM	FC Pride Elite 4th · 4-0-1 · GD +15	Away far trip Pride Performance Center (Turf) · turf	●●○○○ Lean win	72%	3–1	2.29	2.91	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 12:30 PM	Ohio Galaxies FC 2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +31	Away far trip Athletes in Action Sports Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	2–2	1.68	2.77	Swing game
Sat Mar 13 02:45 PM	Ohio Elite SA 9th · 1-0-6 · GD -18	Away far trip Seven Hills School	●○○○○ Favorable	97%	6–0	2.93	2.79	Bank it
Sun Mar 14 TBD	Cincinnati Elite FC 10th · 0-0-7 · GD -78	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	100%	9–0	3.00	2.81	Bank it
Sat Mar 20 11:00 AM	Elite FC 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +14	Home Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	72%	2–1	2.31	2.77	Bank it
Sun Mar 21 11:00 AM	Blast FC Academy 5th · 3-0-3 · GD +2	Home Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	93%	4–1	2.84	2.77	Bank it
Sat Apr 10 12:00 PM	Ohio Premier 7th · 1-1-4 · GD -2	Away far trip OP Training Facility	●○○○○ Favorable	83%	3–1	2.59	2.76	Bank it
Sun Apr 11 TBD	Columbus Force 8th · 1-1-4 · GD -14	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	95%	5–0	2.88	2.77	Bank it
Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM	FC Pride Elite 4th · 4-0-1 · GD +15	Home Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	3–1	2.51	2.75	Bank it
Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM	Ohio Galaxies FC 2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +31	Home Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	61%	3–1	1.99	2.71	Swing game
Sun May 16 11:00 AM	Louisville City Academy 6th · 2-2-3 · GD +8	Away far trip Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility	●○○○○ Favorable	79%	3–1	2.48	2.69	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Lexington Sporting Club

+42

3.00

WWWWW

-1.09

+0.14

100%

1.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Columbus Force (8th)	6–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Ohio Premier (7th)	3–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Blast FC Academy (5th)	6–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Elite FC (3rd)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	15–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Ohio Elite SA (9th)	9–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Louisville City Academy (6th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Pride Elite · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sat Mar 13 at Ohio Elite SA See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Pride Elite (4th)	3–1	72%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (2nd)	2–2	50%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Ohio Elite SA (9th)	6–0	97%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	9–0	100%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Elite FC (3rd)	2–1	72%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Blast FC Academy (5th)	4–1	93%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Ohio Premier (7th)	3–1	83%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Columbus Force (8th)	5–0	95%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC Pride Elite (4th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (2nd)	3–1	61%
·	Sun May 16	at	Louisville City Academy (6th)	3–1	79%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Galaxies FC

+31

3.00

WWWWW

-1.63

+0.21

100%

1.9

W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Pride Elite (4th)	4–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Elite SA (9th)	8–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	15–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Columbus Force (8th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Ohio Premier (7th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Louisville City Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Lexington Sporting Club · Sat Mar 6 vs Blast FC Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Louisville City Academy (6th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lexington Sporting Club (1st)	2–2	32%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Blast FC Academy (5th)	5–1	89%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Elite FC (3rd)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC Pride Elite (4th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Ohio Premier (7th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Columbus Force (8th)	5–1	92%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	9–0	100%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Ohio Elite SA (9th)	7–1	98%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Louisville City Academy (6th)	3–1	71%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Lexington Sporting Club (1st)	1–3	23%
·	Sat May 8	at	Blast FC Academy (5th)	4–1	83%
·	Sun May 9	at	Elite FC (3rd)	2–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Elite FC

+14

2.50

WLWWW

-0.98

+0.33

97%

3.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	7–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Ohio Elite SA (9th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Louisville City Academy (6th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Lexington Sporting Club (1st)	1–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Premier (7th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Columbus Force (8th)	2–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Blast FC Academy · Sat Mar 6 at FC Pride Elite · Sun Mar 7 at Ohio Galaxies FC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Blast FC Academy (5th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	FC Pride Elite (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (2nd)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Blast FC Academy (5th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Lexington Sporting Club (1st)	1–2	12%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Louisville City Academy (6th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Columbus Force (8th)	3–1	81%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Ohio Premier (7th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Ohio Elite SA (9th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	7–0	99%
·	Sat May 8	vs	FC Pride Elite (4th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (2nd)	1–2	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite

+15

2.40

WWWWL

-1.23

+0.35

92%

3.7

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (2nd)	0–4
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	10–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Elite SA (9th)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Ohio Premier (7th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Columbus Force (8th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lexington Sporting Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Louisville City Academy · Sat Mar 6 vs Elite FC See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lexington Sporting Club (1st)	1–3	14%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Louisville City Academy (6th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Elite FC (3rd)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Blast FC Academy (5th)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (2nd)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Ohio Premier (7th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Columbus Force (8th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Ohio Elite SA (9th)	4–1	89%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	9–0	100%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Lexington Sporting Club (1st)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Louisville City Academy (6th)	2–1	47%
·	Sat May 8	at	Elite FC (3rd)	1–2	31%
·	Sun May 9	at	Blast FC Academy (5th)	3–2	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Blast FC Academy

1.50

LWLWW

-0.97

+0.55

6.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Ohio Elite SA (9th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	11–0
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Lexington Sporting Club (1st)	0–6
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Louisville City Academy (6th)	1–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Columbus Force (8th)	2–4
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier (7th)	0–4

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Elite FC · Sat Mar 6 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sun Mar 7 at FC Pride Elite See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Elite FC (3rd)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (2nd)	1–5	5%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	FC Pride Elite (4th)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Elite FC (3rd)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Louisville City Academy (6th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Lexington Sporting Club (1st)	1–4	2%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Ohio Premier (7th)	2–2	41%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Columbus Force (8th)	3–1	64%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	7–1	98%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Ohio Elite SA (9th)	3–2	61%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (2nd)	1–4	8%
·	Sun May 9	vs	FC Pride Elite (4th)	2–3	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Louisville City Academy

1.14

WLLDD

-0.67

+0.43

5.9

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Ohio Premier (7th)	2–2
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Columbus Force (8th)	2–2
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Elite FC (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Blast FC Academy (5th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Ohio Elite SA (9th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	12–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lexington Sporting Club (1st)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sun Oct 25 at FC Pride Elite · Sat Mar 13 at Cincinnati Elite FC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (2nd)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Pride Elite (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	7–0	99%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Ohio Elite SA (9th)	3–1	70%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Blast FC Academy (5th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Elite FC (3rd)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Columbus Force (8th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Ohio Premier (7th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (2nd)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	FC Pride Elite (4th)	1–2	33%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Lexington Sporting Club (1st)	1–3	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Premier

-2

0.67

LWLLD

+1.71

-0.80

5.9

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Louisville City Academy (6th)	2–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lexington Sporting Club (1st)	1–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Elite FC (3rd)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Blast FC Academy (5th)	4–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Pride Elite (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Elite SA · Sun Oct 25 vs Cincinnati Elite FC · Sun Nov 1 at Columbus Force See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Elite SA (9th)	3–1	73%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	7–0	99%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Columbus Force (8th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Columbus Force (8th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	FC Pride Elite (4th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (2nd)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Lexington Sporting Club (1st)	1–3	7%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Louisville City Academy (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Blast FC Academy (5th)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Elite FC (3rd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat May 8	at	Ohio Elite SA (9th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun May 9	at	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	6–0	98%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Columbus Force

-14

0.67

LLWDL

+1.72

-0.59

7.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Lexington Sporting Club (1st)	0–6
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Louisville City Academy (6th)	2–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Blast FC Academy (5th)	4–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Elite FC (3rd)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (2nd)	2–6
L	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Pride Elite (4th)	1–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cincinnati Elite FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Elite SA · Sun Nov 1 vs Ohio Premier See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	7–1	97%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Ohio Elite SA (9th)	3–2	56%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Ohio Premier (7th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Ohio Premier (7th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	FC Pride Elite (4th)	1–3	12%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (2nd)	1–5	3%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Louisville City Academy (6th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Lexington Sporting Club (1st)	0–5	2%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Elite FC (3rd)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Blast FC Academy (5th)	1–3	21%
·	Sat May 8	at	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	6–1	94%
·	Sun May 9	at	Ohio Elite SA (9th)	2–2	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Elite SA

-18

0.43

LLWLL

+0.37

+0.12

8.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Blast FC Academy (5th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Elite FC (3rd)	0–2
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	10–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (2nd)	0–8
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Pride Elite (4th)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Louisville City Academy (6th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Lexington Sporting Club (1st)	0–9

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Columbus Force · Sat Mar 13 vs Lexington Sporting Club See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Premier (7th)	1–3	14%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Columbus Force (8th)	2–3	28%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Lexington Sporting Club (1st)	0–6	1%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Louisville City Academy (6th)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	5–1	91%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	FC Pride Elite (4th)	1–4	5%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (2nd)	1–7	1%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Elite FC (3rd)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Blast FC Academy (5th)	2–3	23%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Ohio Premier (7th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Columbus Force (8th)	2–2	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cincinnati Elite FC

-78

0.00

LLLLL

+1.19

+0.62

10.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Elite FC (3rd)	1–7
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Blast FC Academy (5th)	0–11
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Ohio Elite SA (9th)	0–10
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Pride Elite (4th)	0–10
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (2nd)	1–15
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Lexington Sporting Club (1st)	0–15
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Louisville City Academy (6th)	0–12

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Columbus Force · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Premier · Sat Mar 13 vs Louisville City Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Columbus Force (8th)	1–7	1%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Ohio Premier (7th)	0–7	0%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Louisville City Academy (6th)	0–7	0%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Lexington Sporting Club (1st)	0–9	0%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Ohio Elite SA (9th)	1–5	4%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (2nd)	0–9	0%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	FC Pride Elite (4th)	0–9	0%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Blast FC Academy (5th)	1–7	1%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Elite FC (3rd)	0–7	0%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Columbus Force (8th)	1–6	2%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Ohio Premier (7th)	0–6	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.79 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.