Ohio Elite SA
ECNL Regional League Boys · GLA BU14 · 10 teams · Ohio Elite Soccer Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
OP Training Facility, Field 2 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.5 for, 3.3 against · 0.55 expected points)
| Season so far | Ohio Elite SA | Ohio Premier |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-6 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per game | 0.43 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals against / game | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 4 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W L L | D L L W L |
| Biggest win | 10–0 vs Cincinnati Elite FC | 4–0 vs Blast FC Academy |
| Worst loss | 0–9 at Lexington Sporting Club | 1–3 vs Elite FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.66 | +0.18 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.37 | +1.71 |
Common opponents: Lexington Sporting Club — we 0–9; they 1–3. Louisville City Academy — we 0–3; they 2–2. FC Pride Elite — we 1–5; they 1–2. Ohio Galaxies FC — we 0–8; they 1–2. Elite FC — we 0–2; they 1–3. Blast FC Academy — we 1–3; they 4–0.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–9 at Lexington Sporting Club, 0–3 at Louisville City Academy, 0–8 vs Ohio Galaxies FC, 0–2 at Elite FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 14%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at OP Training Facility.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Columbus Force sit 8th on 0.67 PPG; we are on 0.43.A point moves us above Columbus Force on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Ohio Premier game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Ohio Elite SA – Ohio Premier) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.38 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Win 0.75 PPG |
7th▲ up 2 | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
| Draw 0.50 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.38 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th <1%
- 7th 2%
- 8th 14%
- 9th 84%
- 10th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lexington Sporting Club | 3.00 (+2.57) | 1st (2.69) | 51 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Ohio Galaxies FC | 3.00 (+2.57) | 2nd (2.47) | 51 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Elite FC | 2.50 (+2.07) | 3rd (2.02) | 42 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | FC Pride Elite | 2.40 (+1.97) | 4th (1.88) | 41 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 5 | Blast FC Academy | 1.50 (+1.07) | 7th (1.22) | 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 6 | Louisville City Academy | 1.14 (+0.71) | 6th (1.28) | 18 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 7 | Ohio Premier | 0.67 (+0.24) | 5th (1.30) | A point next game |
| 8 | Columbus Force | 0.67 (+0.24) | 8th (0.97) | A point next game |
How the results connect
24 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Ohio Elite SA to Ohio Premier through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.12 · 8th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
Ohio Premier 7th · 1-1-4 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
OP Training Facility |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.55 | 0.44 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 03:00 PM |
Columbus Force 8th · 1-1-4 · GD -14 |
Away far trip
Columbus School for Girls (Kirk Campus) · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
2–3 | 0.99 | 0.50 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 02:45 PM |
Lexington Sporting Club 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +42 |
Home Seven Hills School |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–6 | 0.05 | 0.46 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 01:45 PM |
Louisville City Academy 6th · 2-2-3 · GD +8 |
Home Seven Hills School |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–3 | 0.62 | 0.47 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Cincinnati Elite FC 10th · 0-0-7 · GD -78 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 91% |
5–1 | 2.78 | 0.67 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
FC Pride Elite 4th · 4-0-1 · GD +15 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
1–4 | 0.20 | 0.63 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 10:45 AM |
Ohio Galaxies FC 2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +31 |
Away far trip
Athletes in Action Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
1–7 | 0.04 | 0.59 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 11:30 AM |
Elite FC 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +14 |
Home Ohio Elite Training Center |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.37 | 0.57 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 11:30 AM |
Blast FC Academy 5th · 3-0-3 · GD +2 |
Home Ohio Elite Training Center |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
2–3 | 0.84 | 0.59 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 11:30 AM |
Ohio Premier 7th · 1-1-4 · GD -2 |
Home Ohio Elite Training Center |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.78 | 0.60 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 11:30 AM |
Columbus Force 8th · 1-1-4 · GD -14 |
Home Ohio Elite Training Center |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
2–2 | 1.32 | 0.64 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Lexington Sporting Club | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 2 | +42 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.09 | +0.14 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Pride Elite · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sat Mar 13 at Ohio Elite SA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Ohio Galaxies FC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 4 | +31 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.63 | +0.21 | 100% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Louisville City Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Lexington Sporting Club · Sat Mar 6 vs Blast FC Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Elite FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 15 | 2.50 | WLWWW | -0.98 | +0.33 | 97% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Blast FC Academy · Sat Mar 6 at FC Pride Elite · Sun Mar 7 at Ohio Galaxies FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Pride Elite | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWWL | -1.23 | +0.35 | 92% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lexington Sporting Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Louisville City Academy · Sat Mar 6 vs Elite FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Blast FC Academy | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 9 | 1.50 | LWLWW | -0.97 | +0.55 | 2% | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Elite FC · Sat Mar 6 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sun Mar 7 at FC Pride Elite See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Louisville City Academy | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 8 | 1.14 | WLLDD | -0.67 | +0.43 | 4% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sun Oct 25 at FC Pride Elite · Sat Mar 13 at Cincinnati Elite FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Ohio Premier | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 4 | 0.67 | LWLLD | +1.71 | -0.80 | 4% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Elite SA · Sun Oct 25 vs Cincinnati Elite FC · Sun Nov 1 at Columbus Force See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Columbus Force | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 4 | 0.67 | LLWDL | +1.72 | -0.59 | 0% | 7.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cincinnati Elite FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Elite SA · Sun Nov 1 vs Ohio Premier See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Ohio Elite SA | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 30 | -18 | 3 | 0.43 | LLWLL | +0.37 | +0.12 | 0% | 8.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Columbus Force · Sat Mar 13 vs Lexington Sporting Club See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Cincinnati Elite FC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 80 | -78 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.19 | +0.62 | 0% | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Columbus Force · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Premier · Sat Mar 13 vs Louisville City Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.79 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.