Elite FC
ECNL Regional League Boys · GLA BU14 · 10 teams · Elite FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 10:50 AM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.8 for, 1.3 against · 2.23 expected points)
| Season so far | Elite FC | Blast FC Academy |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-1 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per game | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 2.8 |
| Goals against / game | 0.7 | 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W L W | W W L W L |
| Biggest win | 7–1 vs Cincinnati Elite FC | 11–0 vs Cincinnati Elite FC |
| Worst loss | 1–2 vs Lexington Sporting Club | 0–6 vs Lexington Sporting Club |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.28 | -0.04 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.98 | -0.97 |
Common opponents: Columbus Force — we 2–0; they 2–4. Ohio Premier — we 3–1; they 0–4. Lexington Sporting Club — we 1–2; they 0–6. Louisville City Academy — we 3–0; they 1–0. Ohio Elite SA — we 2–0; they 3–1. Cincinnati Elite FC — we 7–1; they 11–0.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 69% / draw 16% / loss 15%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Blast FC Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Elite FC – Blast FC Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.57 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.57 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 2.29 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.14 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 8%
- 3rd 56%
- 4th 34%
- 5th 2%
- 6th <1%
- 7th <1%
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.83 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lexington Sporting Club | 3.00 (+0.50) | 1st (2.69) | 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 2 | Ohio Galaxies FC | 3.00 (+0.50) | 2nd (2.47) | 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
How the results connect
26 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Elite FC to Blast FC Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.33 · 5th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 10:50 AM |
Blast FC Academy 5th · 3-0-3 · GD +2 |
Home Shelly Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–1 | 2.23 | 2.46 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
FC Pride Elite 4th · 4-0-1 · GD +15 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.35 | 2.32 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Ohio Galaxies FC 2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +31 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.75 | 2.15 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Blast FC Academy 5th · 3-0-3 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.98 | 2.13 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 11:00 AM |
Lexington Sporting Club 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +42 |
Away far trip
Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–2 | 0.53 | 1.99 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 11:00 AM |
Louisville City Academy 6th · 2-2-3 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.66 | 1.96 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 01:00 PM |
Columbus Force 8th · 1-1-4 · GD -14 |
Home Shelly Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
3–1 | 2.55 | 2.00 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 01:00 PM |
Ohio Premier 7th · 1-1-4 · GD -2 |
Home Shelly Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.07 | 2.01 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 11:30 AM |
Ohio Elite SA 9th · 1-0-6 · GD -18 |
Away far trip
Ohio Elite Training Center |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
3–1 | 2.52 | 2.04 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Cincinnati Elite FC 10th · 0-0-7 · GD -78 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
7–0 | 2.98 | 2.10 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 03:00 PM |
FC Pride Elite 4th · 4-0-1 · GD +15 |
Home Shelly Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–1 | 1.64 | 2.07 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 02:00 PM |
Ohio Galaxies FC 2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +31 |
Home Shelly Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–2 | 1.01 | 2.02 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lexington Sporting Club | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 2 | +42 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.09 | +0.14 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Pride Elite · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sat Mar 13 at Ohio Elite SA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Ohio Galaxies FC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 4 | +31 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.63 | +0.21 | 100% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Louisville City Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Lexington Sporting Club · Sat Mar 6 vs Blast FC Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Elite FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 15 | 2.50 | WLWWW | -0.98 | +0.33 | 98% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Blast FC Academy · Sat Mar 6 at FC Pride Elite · Sun Mar 7 at Ohio Galaxies FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Pride Elite | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWWL | -1.23 | +0.35 | 92% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lexington Sporting Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Louisville City Academy · Sat Mar 6 vs Elite FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Blast FC Academy | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 9 | 1.50 | LWLWW | -0.97 | +0.55 | 2% | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Elite FC · Sat Mar 6 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sun Mar 7 at FC Pride Elite See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Louisville City Academy | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 8 | 1.14 | WLLDD | -0.67 | +0.43 | 4% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sun Oct 25 at FC Pride Elite · Sat Mar 13 at Cincinnati Elite FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Ohio Premier | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 4 | 0.67 | LWLLD | +1.71 | -0.80 | 4% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Elite SA · Sun Oct 25 vs Cincinnati Elite FC · Sun Nov 1 at Columbus Force See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Columbus Force | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 4 | 0.67 | LLWDL | +1.72 | -0.59 | 0% | 7.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cincinnati Elite FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Elite SA · Sun Nov 1 vs Ohio Premier See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Ohio Elite SA | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 30 | -18 | 3 | 0.43 | LLWLL | +0.37 | +0.12 | 0% | 8.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Columbus Force · Sat Mar 13 vs Lexington Sporting Club See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Cincinnati Elite FC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 80 | -78 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.19 | +0.62 | 0% | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Columbus Force · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Premier · Sat Mar 13 vs Louisville City Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.79 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.