Pacesetter Soccer Club
ECNL Regional League Boys · GLA BU13 · 9 teams · Pacesetter Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:15 AM
Fraser High School, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 2–4 (expected goals 2.1 for, 4.0 against · 0.60 expected points)
| Season so far | Pacesetter Soccer Club | Nationals SC - Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-3 | 2-0-3 |
| Points per game | 0.75 | 1.20 |
| Goals for / game | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| Goals against / game | 4.8 | 2.4 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L L | W L L W L |
| Biggest win | 8–2 vs Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy | 7–0 at Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy |
| Worst loss | 0–11 vs Manta | 1–6 at T3FC West |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.43 | +0.20 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.38 | +0.03 |
Common opponents: T3FC West — we 1–2; they 1–6. Manta — we 0–11; they 0–4. Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy — we 8–2; they 7–0. GTFC Impact — we 1–4; they 4–0.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–11 vs Manta.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 16%; a draw (12%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 10:15 AM at Fraser High School.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Nationals SC Capital Area Grey sit 6th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.75.A point moves us above Nationals SC Capital Area Grey on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Nationals SC - Nationals game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pacesetter Soccer Club – Nationals SC - Nationals) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.60 PPG |
8th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.20 PPG |
5th▲ up 2 | 6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.80 PPG |
7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.60 PPG |
8th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–4 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th <1%
- 5th 1%
- 6th 3%
- 7th 19%
- 8th 77%
- 9th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canton Force | 3.00 (+2.25) | 2nd (2.21) | 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 2 | Manta | 2.67 (+1.92) | 1st (2.53) | 40 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | T3FC West | 2.17 (+1.42) | 3rd (1.87) | 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 4 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central | 1.75 (+1.00) | 5th (1.56) | 25 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 5 | Nationals SC - Nationals | 1.20 (+0.45) | 6th (1.39) | Win next game |
| 6 | Nationals SC Capital Area Grey | 1.00 (+0.25) | 4th (1.57) | A point next game |
How the results connect
14 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Pacesetter Soccer Club to Nationals SC - Nationals through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.37 · 2nd hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jan 1 TBD no score posted |
Canton Force 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +13 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
1–5 | 0.22 | 0.64 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 10:15 AM |
Nationals SC - Nationals 5th · 2-0-3 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Fraser High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
2–4 | 0.60 | 0.64 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM |
Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Wisner Stadium · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
2–4 | 0.50 | 0.62 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
T3FC West 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +14 |
Home Pacesetter Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
2–4 | 0.47 | 0.60 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
GTFC Impact 8th · 1-0-4 · GD -8 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
2–3 | 1.04 | 0.65 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Canton Force 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +13 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–4 | 0.37 | 0.62 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Nationals SC Capital Area Grey 6th · 1-1-2 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–3 | 0.68 | 0.63 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 12:00 PM |
Manta 2nd · 5-1-0 · GD +30 |
Away far trip
SMS |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
1–7 | 0.06 | 0.58 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy 9th · 0-0-6 · GD -47 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
5–2 | 2.60 | 0.73 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Nationals SC - Nationals 5th · 2-0-3 · GD +1 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
2–3 | 0.88 | 0.74 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +2 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
2–3 | 0.76 | 0.75 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 12:00 PM |
Nationals SC Capital Area Grey 6th · 1-1-2 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Capital Sportsplex Lansing |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.45 | 0.73 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canton Force | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.61 | +0.04 | 99% | 2.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Pacesetter Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at GTFC Impact · Sun Nov 8 at Manta See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Manta | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 5 | +30 | 16 | 2.67 | DWWWW | -0.95 | -0.04 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs T3FC West · Sun Nov 8 vs Canton Force · Sun Dec 13 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | T3FC West | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 13 | 2.17 | WWWWL | -0.82 | +0.28 | 87% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at GTFC Impact · Sun Nov 1 at Pacesetter Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at Manta See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 7 | 1.75 | WDLW | +0.63 | -0.05 | 42% | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Pacesetter Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 vs Nationals SC - Nationals · Sat Dec 12 at Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Nationals SC - Nationals | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLLW | +0.03 | -0.04 | 22% | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Pacesetter Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at GTFC Impact · Sun Nov 8 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Nationals SC Capital Area Grey | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 4 | 1.00 | LWDL | +0.45 | -0.23 | 49% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy · Sun Nov 8 at GTFC Impact · Sat Mar 13 at Nationals SC - Nationals See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Pacesetter Soccer Club | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | -0.38 | +0.37 | 0% | 7.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Canton Force · Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC - Nationals · Sat Oct 31 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | GTFC Impact | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLLW | +0.63 | -0.17 | 1% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs T3FC West · Sun Nov 1 vs Canton Force See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 50 | -47 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.83 | +0.47 | 0% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC Capital Area Grey · Sun Oct 25 at GTFC Impact · Sat Dec 12 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.84 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.