GTFC Impact

ECNL Regional League Boys · GLA BU13 · 9 teams · GTFC Impact (all teams)

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8th

0-0-4 record · 4 played

0.00 points per game

-11 goal diff · 4–15

LLLLlast 4

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.7

+1.18 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:30 AM

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GTFC Impact
8th · 0.00 PPG

Pacesetter Soccer Club
7th · 1.00 PPG

Pacesetter Park , Field 10 ↗ far trip

29% 16% 55%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.5 for, 3.3 against · 1.02 expected points)

Season so far	GTFC Impact	Pacesetter Soccer Club
Position	8th	7th
Record (W-D-L)	0-0-4	1-0-2
Points per game	0.00	1.00
Goals for / game	1.0	3.0
Goals against / game	3.8	5.0
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	L L L L	W L L
Biggest win	—	8–2 vs Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy
Worst loss	0–4 at Nationals SC - Nationals	0–11 vs Manta
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.24	-1.09
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+1.18	-0.24

Common opponents: Manta — we 2–5; they 0–11. T3FC West — we 1–2; they 1–2.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
Pacesetter Soccer Club concede 5.0/game; worst result 0–11 vs Manta.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at Nationals SC - Nationals.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 29%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 10:30 AM at Pacesetter Park .
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pacesetter Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (GTFC Impact – Pacesetter Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.00 PPG	8th— holds	8th— holds	9th▼ down 1
Win 0.60 PPG	8th— holds	8th— holds	8th— holds
Draw 0.20 PPG	8th— holds	8th— holds	9th▼ down 1
Loss 0.00 PPG	8th— holds	8th— holds	9th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

7.7 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th <1%
5th <1%
6th 3%
7th 27%
8th 68%
9th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Canton Force	3.00 (+3.00)	2nd (2.22)	48 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
2	Manta	2.67 (+2.67)	1st (2.54)	43 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	T3FC West	2.17 (+2.17)	3rd (1.88)	35 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
4	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central	1.75 (+1.75)	5th (1.55)	28 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
5	Nationals SC - Nationals	1.20 (+1.20)	6th (1.38)	20 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
6	Nationals SC Capital Area Grey	1.00 (+1.00)	4th (1.59)	16 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
7	Pacesetter Soccer Club	1.00 (+1.00)	7th (0.93)	16 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection

How the results connect

8 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link GTFC Impact to Pacesetter Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us

1 even

3 favour them

+0.2 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.21 · 8th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 10:30 AM	Pacesetter Soccer Club 7th · 1-0-2 · GD -6	Away far trip Pacesetter Park	●●●●○ Tough	29%	2–3	1.02	0.20	Upside
Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy 9th · 0-0-6 · GD -47	Home Springfield High School	●○○○○ Favorable	86%	4–1	2.66	0.61	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 05:00 PM	T3FC West 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +14	Home Rossford Soccer Center Dome	●●●●● Very tough	13%	1–3	0.51	0.60	Upside
Sun Nov 1 02:15 PM	Canton Force 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +13	Home Rossford Soccer Center Dome	●●●●● Very tough	10%	1–3	0.41	0.57	Upside
Sat Nov 7 03:00 PM	Nationals SC - Nationals 5th · 2-0-3 · GD +1	Home Rossford Soccer Center Dome	●●●●● Very tough	24%	1–2	0.89	0.61	Upside
Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM	Nationals SC Capital Area Grey 6th · 1-1-2 · GD +4	Home Springfield High School	●●●●● Very tough	18%	1–2	0.70	0.62	Upside
Sun Dec 13 TBD	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy 9th · 0-0-6 · GD -47	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	79%	4–1	2.46	0.79	Bank it
Sat Mar 13 TBD	Pacesetter Soccer Club 7th · 1-0-2 · GD -6	Home	●●●●○ Tough	40%	2–2	1.36	0.83	Upside
Sat Mar 20 TBD	Canton Force 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +13	Away	●●●●● Very tough	6%	1–4	0.26	0.79	Upside
Sun Mar 21 TBD	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +2	Home	●●●●● Very tough	21%	1–3	0.78	0.79	Upside
Sat Apr 17 12:00 PM	Manta 2nd · 5-1-0 · GD +30	Away far trip SMS	●●●●● Very tough	2%	1–5	0.08	0.74	Upside
Sun May 2 12:00 PM	Nationals SC Capital Area Grey 6th · 1-1-2 · GD +4	Away far trip Capital Sportsplex Lansing	●●●●● Very tough	12%	1–3	0.49	0.73	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Canton Force

+13

3.00

WWWW

-0.62

+0.02

99%

2.1

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	T3FC West (3rd)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central (4th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Nationals SC - Nationals (5th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (9th)	9–1

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Pacesetter Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at GTFC Impact · Sun Nov 8 at Manta See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Pacesetter Soccer Club (7th)	5–1	86%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	GTFC Impact (8th)	3–1	79%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Manta (2nd)	1–3	19%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central (4th)	3–1	66%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Pacesetter Soccer Club (7th)	4–1	78%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central (4th)	2–2	55%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	GTFC Impact (8th)	4–1	86%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Nationals SC Capital Area Grey (6th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Manta (2nd)	2–2	27%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (9th)	8–0	99%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Nationals SC - Nationals (5th)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Nationals SC Capital Area Grey (6th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat May 8	at	T3FC West (3rd)	2–2	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Manta

+30

2.67

DWWWW

-0.97

-0.05

100%

1.2

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Pacesetter Soccer Club (7th)	11–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	GTFC Impact (8th)	5–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Nationals SC Capital Area Grey (6th)	2–1
W	Thu Sep 24	at	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (9th)	11–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Nationals SC Capital Area Grey (6th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Nationals SC - Nationals (5th)	4–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs T3FC West · Sun Nov 8 vs Canton Force · Sun Dec 13 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	T3FC West (3rd)	3–1	74%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Canton Force (1st)	3–1	66%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central (4th)	4–1	84%
·	Fri Mar 12	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (9th)	9–0	100%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Pacesetter Soccer Club (7th)	6–1	96%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Canton Force (1st)	2–2	56%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	T3FC West (3rd)	3–2	63%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	GTFC Impact (8th)	5–1	95%
·	Sat May 8	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central (4th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun May 9	at	Nationals SC - Nationals (5th)	3–1	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

T3FC West

+14

2.17

WWWWL

-0.85

+0.26

88%

3.3

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Canton Force (1st)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (9th)	9–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Pacesetter Soccer Club (7th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	GTFC Impact (8th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Nationals SC - Nationals (5th)	6–1
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central (4th)	4–4

Next: Sat Oct 31 at GTFC Impact · Sun Nov 1 at Pacesetter Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at Manta See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	GTFC Impact (8th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Pacesetter Soccer Club (7th)	4–2	73%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Manta (2nd)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central (4th)	3–2	60%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central (4th)	2–2	49%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Nationals SC Capital Area Grey (6th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (9th)	8–0	99%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Manta (2nd)	2–3	22%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Nationals SC Capital Area Grey (6th)	2–2	42%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Nationals SC - Nationals (5th)	2–2	52%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Canton Force (1st)	2–2	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central

1.75

WDLW

+0.50

-0.03

40%

4.8

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	GTFC Impact (8th)	4–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Canton Force (1st)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 26	at	T3FC West (3rd)	4–4
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Nationals SC Capital Area Grey (6th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Pacesetter Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 vs Nationals SC - Nationals · Sat Dec 12 at Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Pacesetter Soccer Club (7th)	4–2	72%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Nationals SC - Nationals (5th)	2–2	51%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (9th)	6–1	95%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Manta (2nd)	1–4	8%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	T3FC West (3rd)	2–3	24%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Canton Force (1st)	1–3	19%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	T3FC West (3rd)	2–2	34%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Canton Force (1st)	2–2	28%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Nationals SC - Nationals (5th)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	GTFC Impact (8th)	3–1	63%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Pacesetter Soccer Club (7th)	3–2	60%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Manta (2nd)	1–3	13%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (9th)	7–1	97%
·	Sat May 15	at	Nationals SC Capital Area Grey (6th)	1–2	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nationals SC - Nationals

1.20

LWLLW

-0.07

-0.02

20%

5.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	GTFC Impact (8th)	4–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	T3FC West (3rd)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Canton Force (1st)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (9th)	7–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Manta (2nd)	0–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Pacesetter Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at GTFC Impact · Sun Nov 8 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Pacesetter Soccer Club (7th)	3–2	67%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	GTFC Impact (8th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central (4th)	2–2	32%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Nationals SC Capital Area Grey (6th)	2–2	36%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central (4th)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Pacesetter Soccer Club (7th)	3–2	55%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Canton Force (1st)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	T3FC West (3rd)	2–2	30%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (9th)	6–1	96%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Manta (2nd)	1–3	11%
·	Sun May 16	at	Nationals SC Capital Area Grey (6th)	1–2	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nationals SC Capital Area Grey

1.00

LWDL

+0.46

-0.26

52%

4.5

L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Manta (2nd)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Manta (2nd)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (9th)	6–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central (4th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy · Sun Nov 8 at GTFC Impact · Sat Mar 13 at Nationals SC - Nationals See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (9th)	6–0	97%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	GTFC Impact (8th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Nationals SC - Nationals (5th)	2–2	44%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Pacesetter Soccer Club (7th)	3–2	64%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	T3FC West (3rd)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Canton Force (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	T3FC West (3rd)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Canton Force (1st)	1–2	32%
·	Sun May 2	vs	GTFC Impact (8th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Pacesetter Soccer Club (7th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central (4th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Nationals SC - Nationals (5th)	2–1	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pacesetter Soccer Club

-6

1.00

LLW

-0.24

+0.21

7.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (9th)	8–2
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Manta (2nd)	0–11
L	Sun Oct 4	at	T3FC West (3rd)	1–2

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Canton Force · Sat Oct 24 vs GTFC Impact · Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC - Nationals See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Canton Force (1st)	1–5	7%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	GTFC Impact (8th)	3–2	55%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Nationals SC - Nationals (5th)	2–3	20%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central (4th)	2–4	16%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	T3FC West (3rd)	2–4	15%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	GTFC Impact (8th)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Canton Force (1st)	1–4	11%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Nationals SC Capital Area Grey (6th)	2–3	21%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Manta (2nd)	1–6	2%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (9th)	5–2	88%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Nationals SC - Nationals (5th)	2–3	29%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central (4th)	2–3	25%
·	Sat May 8	at	Nationals SC Capital Area Grey (6th)	1–3	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

GTFC Impact

-11

0.00

LLLL

+1.18

-0.21

7.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Nationals SC - Nationals (5th)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 3	at	T3FC West (3rd)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Manta (2nd)	2–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pacesetter Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs T3FC West See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pacesetter Soccer Club (7th)	2–3	29%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (9th)	4–1	86%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	T3FC West (3rd)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Canton Force (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Nationals SC - Nationals (5th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Nationals SC Capital Area Grey (6th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy (9th)	4–1	79%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Pacesetter Soccer Club (7th)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Canton Force (1st)	1–4	6%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central (4th)	1–3	21%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Manta (2nd)	1–5	2%
·	Sun May 2	at	Nationals SC Capital Area Grey (6th)	1–3	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy

-47

0.00

LLLLL

+0.90

+0.41

9.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Pacesetter Soccer Club (7th)	2–8
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	T3FC West (3rd)	0–9
L	Thu Sep 24	vs	Manta (2nd)	0–11
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Nationals SC - Nationals (5th)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Nationals SC Capital Area Grey (6th)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Canton Force (1st)	1–9

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC Capital Area Grey · Sun Oct 25 at GTFC Impact · Sat Dec 12 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Nationals SC Capital Area Grey (6th)	0–6	1%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	GTFC Impact (8th)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central (4th)	1–6	2%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	GTFC Impact (8th)	1–4	11%
·	Fri Mar 12	at	Manta (2nd)	0–9	0%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Pacesetter Soccer Club (7th)	2–5	6%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	T3FC West (3rd)	0–8	0%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Canton Force (1st)	0–8	0%
·	Sat May 8	at	Nationals SC - Nationals (5th)	1–6	1%
·	Sun May 9	at	Liverpool FC-IA Michigan Central (4th)	1–7	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.84 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.