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Real Colorado Athletico

ECNL Girls · Texas GU18/19 · 16 teams · Real Colorado (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 28 minutes ago.
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16th
0-2-5 record · 7 played
0.29 points per game
-14 goal diff · 6–20
DLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.7
+0.21 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:30 PM

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Real Colorado Athletico
16th · 0.29 PPG
vs
FC Dallas Youth
3rd · 2.60 PPG

Real Colorado Soccer Complex, RCSC Grass ↗ · grass

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.9 for, 2.5 against · 0.49 expected points)

Season so farReal Colorado AthleticoFC Dallas Youth
Position16th3rd
Record (W-D-L)0-2-54-1-0
Points per game0.292.60
Goals for / game0.92.2
Goals against / game2.90.8
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)L L L L DW W W D W
Biggest win—3–0 vs Sting Royal
Worst loss1–6 at FC Westlake—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.25+0.79
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.21-0.05

Common opponents: Colorado Storm — we 2–3; they 2–1. Real Colorado National — we 0–3; they 2–2.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    FC Dallas Youth concede only 0.8/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 at Colorado Rush, 0–3 at Real Colorado National.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 11%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    FC Dallas Youth have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Grass field
    Venue listed as "RCSC Grass" at Real Colorado Soccer Complex.

    If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.

  • What a win does
    Lonestar ATX Red sit 15th on 0.50 PPG; we are on 0.29.

    A point moves us above Lonestar ATX Red on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Real Colorado Athletico – FC Dallas Youth) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.25 PPG
16th— holds 16th— holds 16th— holds
Win
0.63 PPG
14th▲ up 2 14th▲ up 2 16th— holds
Draw
0.38 PPG
16th— holds 16th— holds 16th— holds
Loss
0.25 PPG
16th— holds 16th— holds 16th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 16th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 2%
  12. 12th 5%
  13. 13th 11%
  14. 14th 19%
  15. 15th 25%
  16. 16th 37%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 1.73 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Real Colorado National 2.67 (+2.38) 1st (2.65) 39 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 SOLAR SC 2.63 (+2.34) 2nd (2.42) 38 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 FC Dallas Youth 2.60 (+2.31) 4th (2.06) 37 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Sting Black 2.17 (+1.88) 5th (2.03) 31 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 FC Westlake 2.00 (+1.71) 3rd (2.10) 28 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Challenge SC 1.56 (+1.27) 7th (1.48) 22 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
7 Sting Royal 1.33 (+1.04) 9th (1.25) 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
8 Colorado Storm 1.27 (+0.98) 10th (1.23) 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
9 Colorado Rush 1.20 (+0.91) 6th (1.50) 16 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
10 Albion Hurricanes FC 1.10 (+0.81) 11th (1.08) 15 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
11 DKSC 1.00 (+0.71) 8th (1.26) 13 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
12 Dallas Texans 0.78 (+0.49) 13th (0.80) 10 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection
13 OK Energy FC 0.67 (+0.38) 12th (0.98) 9 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
14 West Side Alliance 0.50 (+0.21) 14th (0.71) A point next game
15 Lonestar ATX Red 0.50 (+0.21) 15th (0.59) A point next game

How the results connect

21 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Real Colorado Athletico to FC Dallas Youth through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
2 even
17 favour them
-3.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–3 1–2 0–3 2–2 1–1 4–2 1–3 2–1 0–1 1–1 3–1 3–2 1–2 2–2 1–2 1–3 2–3 0–3 6–2 Real Colorado Athle… 16th Colorado Storm 8th Real Colorado Natio… 1st Albion Hurricanes FC 10th Challenge SC 6th Lonestar ATX Red 15th OK Energy FC 13th West Side Alliance 14th FC Dallas Youth 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 22 Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.01 · 5th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:30 PM
FC Dallas Youth
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +7
Home
Real Colorado Soccer Complex · grass
●●●●● Very tough
11%
0–2 0.49 0.31 Upside
Sun Oct 25
01:30 PM
Sting Royal
7th · 2-2-2 · GD -4
Home
Real Colorado Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.05 0.39 Upside
Sat Nov 7
01:30 PM
SOLAR SC
2nd · 7-0-1 · GD +20
Home
Highland Heritage Regional Park · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
5%
0–3 0.25 0.38 Upside
Sun Nov 8
01:30 PM
Dallas Texans
12th · 2-1-6 · GD -20
Home
Real Colorado Soccer Complex · grass
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–1 1.53 0.48 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
01:00 PM
Sting Black
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +10
Away far trip
Sting National Training Center
●●●●● Very tough
6%
0–3 0.28 0.47 Upside
Sun Dec 13
01:00 PM
DKSC
11th · 2-0-4 · GD -1
Away far trip
Clark East Field
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.56 0.47 Upside
Sat Feb 6
01:30 PM
West Side Alliance
14th · 1-0-5 · GD -8
Home
Real Colorado Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.31 0.53 Upside
Sun Feb 7
01:30 PM
OK Energy FC
13th · 1-1-4 · GD -4
Home
Real Colorado Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 0.97 0.56 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Real Colorado National 121020 389+29 322.67 WWWWW -0.04 -0.53 100% 1.2
2 SOLAR SC 8701 266+20 212.63 LWWWW -0.12 -0.11 99% 2.2
3 FC Dallas Youth 5410 114+7 132.60 WDWWW -0.05 -0.08 60% 4.1
4 Sting Black 6411 155+10 132.17 WDWWL -0.14 -0.01 60% 4.1
5 FC Westlake 8512 2410+14 162.00 DWWLW -0.09 -0.13 76% 3.8
6 Challenge SC 9423 2022-2 141.56 WDWWW +0.00 -0.02 1% 7.3
7 Sting Royal 6222 711-4 81.33 DDWWL +0.34 -0.20 0% 9.2
8 Colorado Storm 11425 2124-3 141.27 LWLLW -0.04 +0.23 0% 9.3
9 Colorado Rush 5203 107+3 61.20 LLWLW -0.14 -0.03 4% 7.1
10 Albion Hurricanes FC 10325 1322-9 111.10 LLLWW +0.04 +0.01 0% 10.8
11 DKSC 6204 1415-1 61.00 LWLLL +0.18 -0.11 1% 9.0
12 Dallas Texans 9216 1333-20 70.78 LLLWL +0.39 -0.29 0% 13.4
13 OK Energy FC 6114 1317-4 40.67 DLLLL -0.11 +0.10 0% 11.3
14 West Side Alliance 6105 614-8 30.50 WLLLL -0.11 +0.15 0% 13.7
15 Lonestar ATX Red 8116 1230-18 40.50 LLWLL -0.08 +0.28 0% 14.8
16 Real Colorado Athletico 7025 620-14 20.29 DLLLL +0.21 +0.01 0% 14.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.96 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.