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Dallas Texans

ECNL Girls · Texas GU18/19 · 16 teams · Dallas Texans (all teams)

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12th
2-1-6 record · 9 played
0.78 points per game
-20 goal diff · 13–33
LLLWLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 13.3
+0.39 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 01:30 PM

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Dallas Texans
12th · 0.78 PPG
at
Colorado Rush
9th · 1.20 PPG

Stargate , Di Biasi East ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.2 for, 3.5 against · 0.38 expected points)

Season so farDallas TexansColorado Rush
Position12th9th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-62-0-3
Points per game0.781.20
Goals for / game1.42.0
Goals against / game3.71.4
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless31
Form (recent first)L W L L LW L W L L
Biggest win4–2 at Challenge SC4–0 vs Real Colorado Athletico
Worst loss0–7 vs FC Westlake1–3 at FC Westlake
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.57+0.43
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.39-0.14

Common opponents: Albion Hurricanes FC — we 2–2; they 1–2. Real Colorado National — we 1–6; they 0–1. Lonestar ATX Red — we 2–1; they 4–1. FC Westlake — we 0–7; they 1–3.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–4 vs Sting Black, 0–3 vs Colorado Storm, 0–7 vs FC Westlake.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 9%; a draw (11%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:30 PM at Stargate .

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    DKSC sit 11th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.78.

    A win moves us above DKSC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Colorado Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Dallas Texans – Colorado Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.70 PPG
12th— holds 13th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 3
Win
1.00 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 14th▼ down 2
Draw
0.80 PPG
12th— holds 13th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 3
Loss
0.70 PPG
12th— holds 13th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
13.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th 3%
  11. 11th 7%
  12. 12th 14%
  13. 13th 27%
  14. 14th 23%
  15. 15th 16%
  16. 16th 8%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 1.67 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Real Colorado National 2.67 (+1.89) 1st (2.65) 34 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 SOLAR SC 2.63 (+1.85) 2nd (2.42) 33 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 FC Dallas Youth 2.60 (+1.82) 4th (2.06) 32 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Sting Black 2.17 (+1.39) 5th (2.03) 26 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 FC Westlake 2.00 (+1.22) 3rd (2.10) 23 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Challenge SC 1.56 (+0.78) 7th (1.48) 17 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
7 Sting Royal 1.33 (+0.55) 9th (1.25) 13 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
8 Colorado Storm 1.27 (+0.49) 10th (1.23) 13 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
9 Colorado Rush 1.20 (+0.42) 6th (1.50) 11 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
10 Albion Hurricanes FC 1.10 (+0.32) 11th (1.08) 10 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection
11 DKSC 1.00 (+0.22) 8th (1.26) Win next game

How the results connect

28 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Dallas Texans to Colorado Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
2 even
22 favour them
-2.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 2–1 2–1 1–4 1–6 1–0 0–7 3–1 1–4 2–1 8–0 3–0 3–0 0–3 2–1 4–2 1–3 2–1 0–4 4–0 Dallas Texans 12th Albion Hurricanes FC 10th Lonestar ATX Red 15th Real Colorado Natio… 1st FC Westlake 5th SOLAR SC 2nd Colorado Storm 8th Challenge SC 6th Real Colorado Athle… 16th Colorado Rush 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 22 Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.29 · 15th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 7
01:30 PM
Colorado Rush
9th · 2-0-3 · GD +3
Away far trip
Stargate
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.38 0.74 Upside
Sun Nov 8
01:30 PM
Real Colorado Athletico
16th · 0-2-5 · GD -14
Away far trip
Real Colorado Soccer Complex · grass
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–2 1.26 0.79 Upside
Sat Nov 21
01:00 PM
OK Energy FC
13th · 1-1-4 · GD -4
Home
Independence High School
●●●●○ Tough
26%
2–3 0.94 0.80 Upside
Sun Dec 6
01:00 PM
West Side Alliance
14th · 1-0-5 · GD -8
Home
Independence High School
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–2 1.33 0.84 Upside
Sat Apr 24
09:00 AM
FC Dallas Youth
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +7
Away far trip
Toyota Soccer Center
●●●●● Very tough
6%
0–3 0.28 0.80 Upside
Sat May 8
09:00 AM
Sting Royal
7th · 2-2-2 · GD -4
Away far trip
Sting National Training Center
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.78 0.80 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Real Colorado National 121020 389+29 322.67 WWWWW -0.04 -0.53 100% 1.2
2 SOLAR SC 8701 266+20 212.63 LWWWW -0.12 -0.11 98% 2.2
3 FC Dallas Youth 5410 114+7 132.60 WDWWW -0.05 -0.08 58% 4.2
4 Sting Black 6411 155+10 132.17 WDWWL -0.14 -0.01 62% 4.1
5 FC Westlake 8512 2410+14 162.00 DWWLW -0.09 -0.13 76% 3.7
6 Challenge SC 9423 2022-2 141.56 WDWWW +0.00 -0.02 1% 7.2
7 Sting Royal 6222 711-4 81.33 DDWWL +0.34 -0.20 0% 9.3
8 Colorado Storm 11425 2124-3 141.27 LWLLW -0.04 +0.23 0% 9.3
9 Colorado Rush 5203 107+3 61.20 LLWLW -0.14 -0.03 4% 7.1
10 Albion Hurricanes FC 10325 1322-9 111.10 LLLWW +0.04 +0.01 0% 10.9
11 DKSC 6204 1415-1 61.00 LWLLL +0.18 -0.11 0% 8.9
12 Dallas Texans 9216 1333-20 70.78 LLLWL +0.39 -0.29 0% 13.3
13 OK Energy FC 6114 1317-4 40.67 DLLLL -0.11 +0.10 0% 11.4
14 West Side Alliance 6105 614-8 30.50 WLLLL -0.11 +0.15 0% 13.7
15 Lonestar ATX Red 8116 1230-18 40.50 LLWLL -0.08 +0.28 0% 14.8
16 Real Colorado Athletico 7025 620-14 20.29 DLLLL +0.21 +0.01 0% 14.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.96 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.