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West Side Alliance

ECNL Girls · Texas GU16 · 16 teams · West Side Alliance SC (all teams)

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16th
0-1-5 record · 6 played
0.17 points per game
-12 goal diff · 7–19
LLLLDlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.5
+0.47 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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West Side Alliance
16th · 0.17 PPG
vs
DKSC
14th · 0.67 PPG

RiverCity Parks, Field 10 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 2.0 for, 2.1 against · 1.34 expected points)

Season so farWest Side AllianceDKSC
Position16th14th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-51-1-4
Points per game0.170.67
Goals for / game1.21.2
Goals against / game3.22.2
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless23
Form (recent first)D L L L LL L W L L
Biggest win—4–1 vs Challenge SC
Worst loss2–6 at FC Dallas Youth0–5 at Real Colorado National
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.08-0.69
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.47-0.01

Common opponents: Challenge SC — we 0–3; they 4–1. AHFC — we 2–2; they 0–1.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    DKSC concede 2.2/game; worst result 0–5 at Real Colorado National.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 vs Lonestar ATX Red, 0–3 at Challenge SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 38%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Colorado Rush sit 15th on 0.40 PPG; we are on 0.17.

    A point moves us above Colorado Rush on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the DKSC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (West Side Alliance – DKSC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.14 PPG
16th— holds 16th— holds 16th— holds
Win
0.57 PPG
15th▲ up 1 15th▲ up 1 16th— holds
Draw
0.29 PPG
16th— holds 16th— holds 16th— holds
Loss
0.14 PPG
16th— holds 16th— holds 16th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 16th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th 2%
  11. 11th 4%
  12. 12th 5%
  13. 13th 9%
  14. 14th 12%
  15. 15th 21%
  16. 16th 43%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 1.87 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth 3.00 (+2.83) 1st (2.62) 44 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Westlake 2.75 (+2.58) 2nd (2.58) 41 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 SOLAR SC 2.17 (+2.00) 3rd (2.12) 32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Sting Royal 1.83 (+1.66) 5th (1.71) 27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
5 Real Colorado National 1.67 (+1.50) 4th (1.72) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
6 Colorado Storm 1.45 (+1.28) 6th (1.44) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
7 Lonestar ATX Red 1.25 (+1.08) 9th (1.18) 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
8 Sting Black 1.17 (+1.00) 8th (1.19) 17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
9 Real Colorado Athletico 1.17 (+1.00) 10th (1.14) 17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
10 OK Energy FC 1.17 (+1.00) 7th (1.23) 17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
11 Challenge SC 1.00 (+0.83) 11th (1.03) 14 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
12 AHFC 1.00 (+0.83) 12th (0.96) 14 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
13 Dallas Texans 0.71 (+0.54) 13th (0.90) 10 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
14 DKSC 0.67 (+0.50) 14th (0.87) 10 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
15 Colorado Rush 0.40 (+0.23) 15th (0.70) A point next game

How the results connect

18 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link West Side Alliance to DKSC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

11 favour us
2 even
5 favour them
+0.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 1–0 0–3 1–4 0–2 2–0 0–3 1–3 5–0 0–0 1–1 1–2 1–1 1–0 2–1 2–3 1–0 2–1 2–2 0–2 1–0 West Side Alliance 16th AHFC 12th Challenge SC 11th Lonestar ATX Red 7th FC Westlake 2nd Sting Royal 4th Colorado Storm 6th Real Colorado Natio… 5th SOLAR SC 3rd Dallas Texans 13th DKSC 14th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 18 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.22 · 13th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM
DKSC
14th · 1-1-4 · GD -6
Home
RiverCity Parks
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–2 1.34 0.33 Upside
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM
Sting Black
8th · 1-4-1 · GD -1
Home
RiverCity Parks
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.08 0.43 Upside
Sun Nov 8
03:00 PM
OK Energy FC
10th · 2-1-3 · GD -6
Away far trip
North Oklahoma City FC
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.02 0.49 Upside
Sun Dec 6
09:00 AM
Dallas Texans
13th · 1-2-4 · GD -7
Away far trip
Independence High School
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.14 0.56 Upside
Sun Dec 13
03:00 PM
SOLAR SC
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +11
Home
RiverCity Parks
●●●●● Very tough
6%
0–3 0.29 0.53 Upside
Sat Jan 30
11:00 AM
Colorado Storm
6th · 4-4-3 · GD -4
Home
RiverCity Parks
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.14 0.58 Upside
Sun Jan 31
11:00 AM
Real Colorado National
5th · 6-2-4 · GD +5
Home
RiverCity Parks
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.66 0.59 Upside
Sat Feb 6
09:00 AM
Real Colorado Athletico
9th · 2-1-3 · GD -5
Away far trip
Real Colorado Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.02 0.62 Upside
Sun Feb 7
TBD
Colorado Rush
15th · 0-2-3 · GD -6
Away
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–1 1.43 0.67 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth 5500 223+19 153.00 WWWWW -0.21 -0.11 100% 1.5
2 FC Westlake 8710 202+18 222.75 WWWWW -0.26 +0.08 100% 1.6
3 SOLAR SC 6411 154+11 132.17 DWWLW +0.00 -0.12 96% 3.1
4 Sting Royal 6321 85+3 111.83 DWWWL +0.14 -0.10 46% 4.9
5 Real Colorado National 12624 1611+5 201.67 DLWWW +0.10 -0.61 50% 4.6
6 Colorado Storm 11443 913-4 161.45 DWLDW +0.17 -0.48 3% 6.8
7 Lonestar ATX Red 8314 1115-4 101.25 WWLWL -0.26 +0.37 1% 9.4
8 Sting Black 6141 45-1 71.17 DWDDL -0.15 +0.12 1% 9.1
9 Real Colorado Athletico 6213 510-5 71.17 WLWDL +0.06 +0.02 1% 10.0
10 OK Energy FC 6213 511-6 71.17 LLLDW +0.47 -0.28 2% 8.8
11 Challenge SC 7214 911-2 71.00 DLLWL -0.41 +0.39 0% 10.9
12 AHFC 7142 36-3 71.00 LWDDD -0.44 +0.42 0% 11.6
13 Dallas Texans 7124 613-7 50.71 LWLLL +0.25 -0.11 0% 12.4
14 DKSC 6114 713-6 40.67 LLWLL -0.01 +0.09 0% 12.8
15 Colorado Rush 5023 06-6 20.40 LDLLD +0.13 +0.00 0% 14.2
16 West Side Alliance 6015 719-12 10.17 LLLLD +0.47 -0.22 0% 14.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.31 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.