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DKSC

ECNL Girls · Texas GU16 · 16 teams · DKSC (all teams)

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14th
1-1-4 record · 6 played
0.67 points per game
-6 goal diff · 7–13
LLWLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.7
-0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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DKSC
14th · 0.67 PPG
at
West Side Alliance
16th · 0.17 PPG

RiverCity Parks, Field 10 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 2.0 against · 1.45 expected points)

Season so farDKSCWest Side Alliance
Position14th16th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-40-1-5
Points per game0.670.17
Goals for / game1.21.2
Goals against / game2.23.2
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless32
Form (recent first)L L W L LD L L L L
Biggest win4–1 vs Challenge SC—
Worst loss0–5 at Real Colorado National2–6 at FC Dallas Youth
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.69-1.08
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.01+0.47

Common opponents: AHFC — we 0–1; they 2–2. Challenge SC — we 4–1; they 0–3.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    West Side Alliance concede 3.2/game; worst result 2–6 at FC Dallas Youth.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 vs AHFC, 0–5 at Real Colorado National, 0–2 at Colorado Storm.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 42%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at RiverCity Parks.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Dallas Texans sit 13th on 0.71 PPG; we are on 0.67.

    A point moves us above Dallas Texans on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the West Side Alliance game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (DKSC – West Side Alliance) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.00 PPG
13th▲ up 1 12th▲ up 2 14th— holds
Win
1.00 PPG
13th▲ up 1 12th▲ up 2 14th— holds
Draw
0.71 PPG
13th▲ up 1 13th▲ up 1 14th— holds
Loss
0.57 PPG
14th— holds 15th▼ down 1 16th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 10th if every rival drops points, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 4%
  9. 9th 6%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 8%
  12. 12th 12%
  13. 13th 15%
  14. 14th 16%
  15. 15th 17%
  16. 16th 11%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.07 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth 3.00 (+2.33) 1st (2.62) 41 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Westlake 2.75 (+2.08) 2nd (2.58) 38 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 SOLAR SC 2.17 (+1.50) 3rd (2.12) 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Sting Royal 1.83 (+1.16) 5th (1.71) 24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
5 Real Colorado National 1.67 (+1.00) 4th (1.72) 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
6 Colorado Storm 1.45 (+0.78) 6th (1.44) 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
7 Lonestar ATX Red 1.25 (+0.58) 9th (1.18) 15 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
8 Sting Black 1.17 (+0.50) 8th (1.19) 14 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
9 Real Colorado Athletico 1.17 (+0.50) 10th (1.14) 14 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
10 OK Energy FC 1.17 (+0.50) 7th (1.23) 14 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
11 Challenge SC 1.00 (+0.33) 11th (1.03) Win next game
12 AHFC 1.00 (+0.33) 12th (0.96) Win next game
13 Dallas Texans 0.71 (+0.04) 13th (0.90) Already ahead

How the results connect

18 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link DKSC to West Side Alliance through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
2 even
11 favour them
-0.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 2–2 4–1 3–0 0–2 2–0 0–5 3–1 3–0 1–1 1–1 2–1 0–0 1–2 0–1 0–1 3–2 2–2 1–2 0–1 2–0 DKSC 14th AHFC 12th Challenge SC 11th Colorado Storm 6th Real Colorado Natio… 5th SOLAR SC 3rd Dallas Texans 13th Lonestar ATX Red 7th FC Westlake 2nd Sting Royal 4th West Side Alliance 16th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 18 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.09 · 5th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM
West Side Alliance
16th · 0-1-5 · GD -12
Away far trip
RiverCity Parks
●●●●○ Tough
42%
2–1 1.45 0.78 Upside
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM
OK Energy FC
10th · 2-1-3 · GD -6
Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.19 0.83 Upside
Sat Dec 12
09:00 AM
Colorado Rush
15th · 0-2-3 · GD -6
Home
Clark East Field
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
1–0 1.75 0.93 Swing game
Sun Dec 13
09:00 AM
Real Colorado Athletico
9th · 2-1-3 · GD -5
Home
Clark East Field
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.45 0.98 Upside
Sat Apr 17
11:00 AM
Sting Royal
4th · 3-2-1 · GD +3
Home
Clark East Field
●●●●● Very tough
20%
0–1 0.83 0.97 Upside
Sun Apr 18
09:00 AM
FC Dallas Youth
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +19
Home
Clark East Field
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–4 0.16 0.90 Upside
Sat May 1
01:00 PM
FC Westlake
2nd · 7-1-0 · GD +18
Away far trip
Onion Creek Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–3 0.15 0.84 Upside
Sun May 2
02:00 PM
Lonestar ATX Red
7th · 3-1-4 · GD -4
Away far trip
St. Andrew's Episcopal School
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.07 0.86 Upside
Sat May 8
09:00 AM
Sting Black
8th · 1-4-1 · GD -1
Away
Sting National Training Center
●●●●○ Tough
25%
0–1 1.02 0.87 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth 5500 223+19 153.00 WWWWW -0.21 -0.11 100% 1.5
2 FC Westlake 8710 202+18 222.75 WWWWW -0.26 +0.08 100% 1.7
3 SOLAR SC 6411 154+11 132.17 DWWLW +0.00 -0.12 96% 3.1
4 Sting Royal 6321 85+3 111.83 DWWWL +0.14 -0.10 45% 4.9
5 Real Colorado National 12624 1611+5 201.67 DLWWW +0.10 -0.61 51% 4.6
6 Colorado Storm 11443 913-4 161.45 DWLDW +0.17 -0.48 4% 6.7
7 Lonestar ATX Red 8314 1115-4 101.25 WWLWL -0.26 +0.37 0% 9.5
8 Sting Black 6141 45-1 71.17 DWDDL -0.15 +0.12 1% 9.0
9 Real Colorado Athletico 6213 510-5 71.17 WLWDL +0.06 +0.02 0% 9.9
10 OK Energy FC 6213 511-6 71.17 LLLDW +0.47 -0.28 3% 9.0
11 Challenge SC 7214 911-2 71.00 DLLWL -0.41 +0.39 0% 10.8
12 AHFC 7142 36-3 71.00 LWDDD -0.44 +0.42 0% 11.6
13 Dallas Texans 7124 613-7 50.71 LWLLL +0.25 -0.11 0% 12.5
14 DKSC 6114 713-6 40.67 LLWLL -0.01 +0.09 0% 12.7
15 Colorado Rush 5023 06-6 20.40 LDLLD +0.13 +0.00 0% 14.2
16 West Side Alliance 6015 719-12 10.17 LLLLD +0.47 -0.22 0% 14.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.31 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.