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Colorado Storm

ECNL Girls · Texas GU16 · 16 teams · Colorado Storm (all teams)

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6th
4-4-3 record · 11 played
1.45 points per game
-4 goal diff · 9–13
DWLDWlast 5
4% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.7
+0.17 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 09:00 AM

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Colorado Storm
6th · 1.45 PPG
at
Real Colorado National
5th · 1.67 PPG

Real Colorado Soccer Complex, RCSC Grass ↗ · grass far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.6 for, 1.3 against · 0.86 expected points)

Season so farColorado StormReal Colorado National
Position6th5th
Record (W-D-L)4-4-36-2-4
Points per game1.451.67
Goals for / game0.81.3
Goals against / game1.20.9
Clean sheets66
Held scoreless54
Form (recent first)W D L W DW W W L D
Biggest win2–0 vs Real Colorado Athletico5–0 vs DKSC
Worst loss0–6 at FC Dallas Youth1–5 at FC Dallas Youth
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.25+0.36
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.17+0.10

Common opponents: Real Colorado Athletico — we 2–0; they 1–0. Lonestar ATX Red — we 1–1; they 3–1. FC Westlake — we 1–1; they 0–2. FC Dallas Youth — we 0–6; they 1–5. Sting Royal — we 0–1; they 0–0. AHFC — we 2–0; they 2–0. Challenge SC — we 0–0; they 0–1. Dallas Texans — we 1–0; they 0–1. SOLAR SC — we 0–4; they 1–1. Sting Black — we 0–0; they 2–0. DKSC — we 2–0; they 5–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–6 at FC Dallas Youth, 0–1 at Sting Royal, 0–0 vs Challenge SC, 0–4 at SOLAR SC, 0–0 vs Sting Black.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 19%; a draw (29%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Real Colorado National have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Grass field
    Venue listed as "RCSC Grass" at Real Colorado Soccer Complex.

    If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Real Colorado Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Real Colorado National game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Colorado Storm – Real Colorado National) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.33 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 9th▼ down 3
Win
1.58 PPG
5th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 2 7th▼ down 1
Draw
1.42 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 9th▼ down 3
Loss
1.33 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 9th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
4% top 4
96% below the top 4
6.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 12%
  6. 6th 35%
  7. 7th 23%
  8. 8th 13%
  9. 9th 7%
  10. 10th 4%
  11. 11th 2%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.87 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth 3.00 (+1.55) 1st (2.62) 29 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Westlake 2.75 (+1.30) 2nd (2.58) 26 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 SOLAR SC 2.17 (+0.72) 3rd (2.12) 17 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Sting Royal 1.83 (+0.38) 5th (1.71) 12 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection
5 Real Colorado National 1.67 (+0.22) 4th (1.72) 10 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection

How the results connect

49 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link Colorado Storm to Real Colorado National through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

20 favour us
3 even
26 favour them
-0.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 0–2 0–0 1–0 0–1 0–0 2–0 0–1 0–0 0–2 1–0 1–0 0–6 5–1 1–1 2–0 1–1 1–3 2–0 0–5 0–4 1–1 1–1 Colorado Storm 6th AHFC 12th Challenge SC 11th Sting Royal 4th Real Colorado Athle… 9th Sting Black 8th Dallas Texans 13th FC Dallas Youth 1st FC Westlake 2nd Lonestar ATX Red 7th DKSC 14th SOLAR SC 3rd Real Colorado Natio… 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 18 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.48 · 15th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
Real Colorado National
5th · 6-2-4 · GD +5
Away far trip
Real Colorado Soccer Complex · grass
●●●●● Very tough
19%
0–1 0.86 1.40 Upside
Sat Jan 30
11:00 AM
West Side Alliance
16th · 0-1-5 · GD -12
Away far trip
RiverCity Parks
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–1 1.61 1.42 Swing game
Sun Jan 31
01:00 PM
OK Energy FC
10th · 2-1-3 · GD -6
Away far trip
North Oklahoma City FC
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–0 1.36 1.42 Upside
Sat Feb 20
11:15 AM
Colorado Rush
15th · 0-2-3 · GD -6
Home
Regis University · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
0–0 1.75 1.44 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth 5500 223+19 153.00 WWWWW -0.21 -0.11 100% 1.5
2 FC Westlake 8710 202+18 222.75 WWWWW -0.26 +0.08 100% 1.6
3 SOLAR SC 6411 154+11 132.17 DWWLW +0.00 -0.12 96% 3.1
4 Sting Royal 6321 85+3 111.83 DWWWL +0.14 -0.10 46% 4.9
5 Real Colorado National 12624 1611+5 201.67 DLWWW +0.10 -0.61 49% 4.6
6 Colorado Storm 11443 913-4 161.45 DWLDW +0.17 -0.48 4% 6.7
7 Lonestar ATX Red 8314 1115-4 101.25 WWLWL -0.26 +0.37 0% 9.4
8 Sting Black 6141 45-1 71.17 DWDDL -0.15 +0.12 1% 9.1
9 Real Colorado Athletico 6213 510-5 71.17 WLWDL +0.06 +0.02 1% 9.9
10 OK Energy FC 6213 511-6 71.17 LLLDW +0.47 -0.28 2% 8.9
11 Challenge SC 7214 911-2 71.00 DLLWL -0.41 +0.39 0% 10.8
12 AHFC 7142 36-3 71.00 LWDDD -0.44 +0.42 0% 11.6
13 Dallas Texans 7124 613-7 50.71 LWLLL +0.25 -0.11 0% 12.6
14 DKSC 6114 713-6 40.67 LLWLL -0.01 +0.09 0% 12.6
15 Colorado Rush 5023 06-6 20.40 LDLLD +0.13 +0.00 0% 14.2
16 West Side Alliance 6015 719-12 10.17 LLLLD +0.47 -0.22 0% 14.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.31 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.