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FC Dallas Youth

ECNL Girls · Texas GU16 · 16 teams · FC Dallas Youth (all teams)

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1st
5-0-0 record · 5 played
3.00 points per game
+19 goal diff · 22–3
WWWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.5
-0.21 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:15 AM

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FC Dallas Youth
1st · 3.00 PPG
at

Real Colorado Soccer Complex, RCSC Grass ↗ · grass far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.4 for, 0.8 against · 2.67 expected points)

Season so farFC Dallas YouthReal Colorado Athletico
Position1st9th
Record (W-D-L)5-0-02-1-3
Points per game3.001.17
Goals for / game4.40.8
Goals against / game0.61.7
Clean sheets32
Held scoreless04
Form (recent first)W W W W WL D W L W
Biggest win6–0 vs Colorado Storm2–0 at Lonestar ATX Red
Worst loss—0–5 at FC Westlake
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.19-0.49
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.21+0.06

Common opponents: Colorado Storm — we 6–0; they 0–2. Real Colorado National — we 5–1; they 0–1.

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 86% chance; likely score 3–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Grass field
    Venue listed as "RCSC Grass" at Real Colorado Soccer Complex.

    If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:15 AM at Real Colorado Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Real Colorado Athletico game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth – Real Colorado Athletico) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.67 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1
Loss
2.50 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

58% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.5 average finish
  1. 1st 58%
  2. 2nd 38%
  3. 3rd 4%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

17 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dallas Youth to Real Colorado Athletico through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

15 favour us
1 even
1 favour them
+4.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–1 1–0 6–0 2–0 6–2 0–3 2–3 0–3 0–2 0–1 2–0 0–0 3–0 3–1 2–1 3–1 1–1 1–0 0–3 5–0 FC Dallas Youth 1st Real Colorado Natio… 5th Colorado Storm 6th West Side Alliance 16th Sting Royal 4th OK Energy FC 10th Challenge SC 11th Lonestar ATX Red 7th FC Westlake 2nd Real Colorado Athle… 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 18 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.11 · 10th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:15 AM
Real Colorado Athletico
9th · 2-1-3 · GD -5
Away far trip
Real Colorado Soccer Complex · grass
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
3–0 2.67 2.94 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
TBD
Colorado Rush
15th · 0-2-3 · GD -6
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
2–0 2.69 2.91 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
Lonestar ATX Red
7th · 3-1-4 · GD -4
Away far trip
Burger Activity Center · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
3–1 2.69 2.88 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
FC Westlake
2nd · 7-1-0 · GD +18
Away far trip
Hill Country Middle School
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.13 2.69 Upside
Sat Nov 21
01:00 PM
Challenge SC
11th · 2-1-4 · GD -2
Away far trip
Burroughs Park
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–0 2.62 2.68 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
03:00 PM
AHFC
12th · 1-4-2 · GD -3
Away far trip
Campbell Road Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
2–0 2.52 2.67 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
11:00 AM
Sting Black
8th · 1-4-1 · GD -1
Away
Sting National Training Center
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
2–0 2.42 2.65 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
09:00 AM
DKSC
14th · 1-1-4 · GD -6
Away
Clark East Field
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
4–0 2.78 2.66 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
11:00 AM
Dallas Texans
13th · 1-2-4 · GD -7
Home
Toyota Soccer Center
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
4–0 2.84 2.67 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD
SOLAR SC
3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +11
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.95 2.62 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth 5500 223+19 153.00 WWWWW -0.21 -0.11 100% 1.5
2 FC Westlake 8710 202+18 222.75 WWWWW -0.26 +0.08 100% 1.6
3 SOLAR SC 6411 154+11 132.17 DWWLW +0.00 -0.12 96% 3.1
4 Sting Royal 6321 85+3 111.83 DWWWL +0.14 -0.10 45% 4.8
5 Real Colorado National 12624 1611+5 201.67 DLWWW +0.10 -0.61 51% 4.6
6 Colorado Storm 11443 913-4 161.45 DWLDW +0.17 -0.48 4% 6.7
7 Lonestar ATX Red 8314 1115-4 101.25 WWLWL -0.26 +0.37 1% 9.5
8 Sting Black 6141 45-1 71.17 DWDDL -0.15 +0.12 1% 9.1
9 Real Colorado Athletico 6213 510-5 71.17 WLWDL +0.06 +0.02 1% 9.8
10 OK Energy FC 6213 511-6 71.17 LLLDW +0.47 -0.28 2% 8.9
11 Challenge SC 7214 911-2 71.00 DLLWL -0.41 +0.39 0% 10.9
12 AHFC 7142 36-3 71.00 LWDDD -0.44 +0.42 0% 11.6
13 Dallas Texans 7124 613-7 50.71 LWLLL +0.25 -0.11 0% 12.4
14 DKSC 6114 713-6 40.67 LLWLL -0.01 +0.09 0% 12.9
15 Colorado Rush 5023 06-6 20.40 LDLLD +0.13 +0.00 0% 14.2
16 West Side Alliance 6015 719-12 10.17 LLLLD +0.47 -0.22 0% 14.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.31 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.