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FC Westlake

ECNL Girls · Texas GU16 · 16 teams · FC Westlake (all teams)

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2nd
7-1-0 record · 8 played
2.75 points per game
+18 goal diff · 20–2
WWWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.7
-0.26 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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FC Westlake
2nd · 2.75 PPG
at
Lonestar ATX Red
7th · 1.25 PPG

Burger Activity Center, Stadium Field 1 ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.8 for, 0.6 against · 2.58 expected points)

Season so farFC WestlakeLonestar ATX Red
Position2nd7th
Record (W-D-L)7-1-03-1-4
Points per game2.751.25
Goals for / game2.51.4
Goals against / game0.31.9
Clean sheets62
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W W W W WL W L W W
Biggest win5–0 vs Real Colorado Athletico3–0 at West Side Alliance
Worst loss—0–5 at SOLAR SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.60-0.42
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.26-0.26

Common opponents: Real Colorado National — we 2–0; they 1–3. Colorado Storm — we 1–1; they 1–1. West Side Alliance — we 2–1; they 3–0. OK Energy FC — we 3–0; they 1–3. Real Colorado Athletico — we 5–0; they 0–2. Colorado Rush — we 2–0; they 3–0. SOLAR SC — we 1–0; they 0–5. Dallas Texans — we 4–0; they 2–1.

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 2–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Burger Activity Center.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Lonestar ATX Red game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Westlake – Lonestar ATX Red) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.78 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.78 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.56 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
2.44 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

40% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.7 average finish
  1. 1st 40%
  2. 2nd 55%
  3. 3rd 5%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.87 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth 3.00 (+0.25) 1st (2.62) 23 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection

How the results connect

26 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link FC Westlake to Lonestar ATX Red through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

20 favour us
4 even
2 favour them
+3.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 1–1 2–0 0–3 2–1 0–3 4–0 1–2 2–0 3–1 3–0 3–1 1–0 5–0 5–0 2–0 1–0 1–0 0–1 0–4 FC Westlake 2nd Colorado Storm 6th Colorado Rush 15th West Side Alliance 16th Dallas Texans 13th Real Colorado Natio… 5th OK Energy FC 10th SOLAR SC 3rd Real Colorado Athle… 9th Lonestar ATX Red 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 18 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.08 · 6th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM
Lonestar ATX Red
7th · 3-1-4 · GD -4
Away
Burger Activity Center · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
2–0 2.58 2.73 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM
Sting Royal
4th · 3-2-1 · GD +3
Home
Onion Creek Soccer Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
1–0 2.22 2.68 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
FC Dallas Youth
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +19
Home
Hill Country Middle School
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
1–1 1.62 2.58 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
01:00 PM
Challenge SC
11th · 2-1-4 · GD -2
Home
Westlake High School Stadium - Chaparral Stadium · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
2–0 2.64 2.59 Bank it
Sat May 1
01:00 PM
DKSC
14th · 1-1-4 · GD -6
Home
Onion Creek Soccer Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
3–0 2.78 2.60 Bank it
Sun May 2
01:00 PM
Sting Black
8th · 1-4-1 · GD -1
Home
Westlake High School
●●○○○ Lean win
75%
1–0 2.43 2.59 Bank it
Sat May 8
01:00 PM
AHFC
12th · 1-4-2 · GD -3
Home
Onion Creek Soccer Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
1–0 2.49 2.58 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth 5500 223+19 153.00 WWWWW -0.21 -0.11 100% 1.5
2 FC Westlake 8710 202+18 222.75 WWWWW -0.26 +0.08 100% 1.7
3 SOLAR SC 6411 154+11 132.17 DWWLW +0.00 -0.12 96% 3.1
4 Sting Royal 6321 85+3 111.83 DWWWL +0.14 -0.10 45% 4.9
5 Real Colorado National 12624 1611+5 201.67 DLWWW +0.10 -0.61 51% 4.6
6 Colorado Storm 11443 913-4 161.45 DWLDW +0.17 -0.48 4% 6.7
7 Lonestar ATX Red 8314 1115-4 101.25 WWLWL -0.26 +0.37 0% 9.5
8 Sting Black 6141 45-1 71.17 DWDDL -0.15 +0.12 1% 9.0
9 Real Colorado Athletico 6213 510-5 71.17 WLWDL +0.06 +0.02 0% 9.9
10 OK Energy FC 6213 511-6 71.17 LLLDW +0.47 -0.28 3% 9.0
11 Challenge SC 7214 911-2 71.00 DLLWL -0.41 +0.39 0% 10.8
12 AHFC 7142 36-3 71.00 LWDDD -0.44 +0.42 0% 11.6
13 Dallas Texans 7124 613-7 50.71 LWLLL +0.25 -0.11 0% 12.5
14 DKSC 6114 713-6 40.67 LLWLL -0.01 +0.09 0% 12.7
15 Colorado Rush 5023 06-6 20.40 LDLLD +0.13 +0.00 0% 14.2
16 West Side Alliance 6015 719-12 10.17 LLLLD +0.47 -0.22 0% 14.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.31 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.