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West Side Alliance

ECNL Girls · Texas GU15 · 16 teams · West Side Alliance SC (all teams)

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15th
0-0-6 record · 6 played
0.00 points per game
-18 goal diff · 2–20
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.6
+0.62 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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West Side Alliance
15th · 0.00 PPG
vs
DKSC
8th · 1.50 PPG

RiverCity Parks, Field 9 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.9 against · 1.00 expected points)

Season so farWest Side AllianceDKSC
Position15th8th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-63-0-3
Points per game0.001.50
Goals for / game0.31.0
Goals against / game3.32.8
Clean sheets03
Held scoreless42
Form (recent first)L L L L LW L L W L
Biggest win—2–0 vs Albion Hurricanes FC
Worst loss0–5 vs FC Westlake0–9 at SOLAR SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.75-1.08
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.62+0.38

Common opponents: Challenge SC — we 0–2; they 0–3. Albion Hurricanes FC — we 1–3; they 2–0.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    DKSC concede 2.8/game; worst result 0–9 at SOLAR SC.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–5 vs FC Westlake, 0–3 at Sting Royal, 0–3 at FC Dallas Youth, 0–2 at Challenge SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 26%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Dallas Texans sit 14th on 0.14 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above Dallas Texans on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the DKSC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (West Side Alliance – DKSC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.14 PPG
15th— holds 15th— holds 16th▼ down 1
Win
0.43 PPG
14th▲ up 1 13th▲ up 2 15th— holds
Draw
0.14 PPG
15th— holds 15th— holds 16th▼ down 1
Loss
0.00 PPG
15th— holds 15th— holds 16th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 15th even if every rival loses, and as low as 16th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th 2%
  13. 13th 13%
  14. 14th 25%
  15. 15th 38%
  16. 16th 21%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 1.80 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SOLAR SC 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.78) 45 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Westlake 2.38 (+2.38) 2nd (2.25) 36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Lonestar ATX Red 2.38 (+2.38) 3rd (2.21) 36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Sting Royal 2.17 (+2.17) 4th (1.93) 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Challenge SC 2.00 (+2.00) 7th (1.73) 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
6 Real Colorado National 1.92 (+1.92) 5th (1.92) 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 FC Dallas Youth 1.60 (+1.60) 8th (1.63) 24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
8 DKSC 1.50 (+1.50) 11th (1.19) 23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
9 OK Energy FC 1.33 (+1.33) 6th (1.81) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
10 Sting Black 1.33 (+1.33) 9th (1.28) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
11 Colorado Storm 1.18 (+1.18) 10th (1.24) 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
12 Albion Hurricanes FC 1.13 (+1.13) 12th (0.96) 17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
13 Colorado Rush 0.50 (+0.50) 13th (0.65) 8 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection
14 Dallas Texans 0.14 (+0.14) 14th (0.55) Already ahead

How the results connect

18 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link West Side Alliance to DKSC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us
2 even
10 favour them
-1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 3–0 1–3 0–2 1–3 5–1 0–3 2–3 1–4 2–2 0–5 2–2 0–2 9–0 2–0 0–2 0–3 3–1 1–0 0–1 1–4 3–1 West Side Alliance 15th Challenge SC 5th Albion Hurricanes FC 12th FC Dallas Youth 7th Lonestar ATX Red 3rd FC Westlake 2nd Sting Royal 4th Real Colorado Natio… 6th SOLAR SC 1st Colorado Storm 11th Dallas Texans 14th DKSC 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 18 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.28 · 11th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM
DKSC
8th · 3-0-3 · GD -11
Home
RiverCity Parks
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–1 1.00 0.14 Upside
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM
Sting Black
10th · 2-2-2 · GD -4
Home
RiverCity Parks
●●●●● Very tough
18%
0–2 0.75 0.22 Upside
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM
OK Energy FC
9th · 2-2-2 · GD +5
Away far trip
North Oklahoma City FC
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–4 0.16 0.21 Upside
Sun Dec 6
01:00 PM
Dallas Texans
14th · 0-1-6 · GD -10
Away far trip
Heritage High School
●●●●● Very tough
25%
0–1 1.06 0.30 Upside
Sun Dec 13
09:00 AM
SOLAR SC
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +23
Home
RiverCity Parks
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–4 0.05 0.27 Upside
Sat Jan 30
11:00 AM
Colorado Storm
11th · 4-1-6 · GD -3
Home
RiverCity Parks
●●●●● Very tough
17%
0–1 0.78 0.32 Upside
Sun Jan 31
11:00 AM
Real Colorado National
6th · 7-2-3 · GD +11
Home
RiverCity Parks
●●●●● Very tough
6%
0–3 0.30 0.32 Upside
Sat Feb 6
01:30 PM
Real Colorado Athletico
16th · 0-0-7 · GD -26
Away far trip
Real Colorado Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.47 0.40 Upside
Sun Feb 7
TBD
Colorado Rush
13th · 1-0-5 · GD -15
Away
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.05 0.44 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SOLAR SC 6600 241+23 183.00 WWWWW +0.19 -0.43 100% 1.0
2 FC Westlake 8611 259+16 192.38 WWWLW -0.34 +0.15 92% 2.8
3 Lonestar ATX Red 8611 229+13 192.38 WWWWL -0.34 +0.19 87% 3.1
4 Sting Royal 6411 168+8 132.17 WWWLD -0.06 -0.08 42% 5.0
5 Challenge SC 8512 199+10 162.00 LLWWD -0.69 +0.70 12% 6.5
6 Real Colorado National 12723 3019+11 231.92 LWWWW -0.04 -0.39 33% 5.2
7 FC Dallas Youth 5221 106+4 81.60 WLDWD +0.09 -0.11 7% 7.3
8 DKSC 6303 617-11 91.50 LWLLW +0.38 -0.17 0% 10.5
9 OK Energy FC 6222 1712+5 81.33 LDWWD +0.62 -0.56 26% 5.7
10 Sting Black 6222 711-4 81.33 DWWDL +0.10 -0.05 0% 9.8
11 Colorado Storm 11416 912-3 131.18 WWLDL +0.14 -0.44 0% 9.9
12 Albion Hurricanes FC 8305 1215-3 91.13 LLLLW -0.70 +0.87 0% 11.6
13 Colorado Rush 6105 419-15 30.50 LLLLW +0.10 +0.03 0% 13.5
14 Dallas Texans 7016 111-10 10.14 LLLLL +0.62 -0.43 0% 13.9
15 West Side Alliance 6006 220-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.62 -0.28 0% 14.6
16 Real Colorado Athletico 7007 329-26 00.00 LLLLL +0.23 +0.06 0% 15.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.