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DKSC

ECNL Girls · Texas GU15 · 16 teams · DKSC (all teams)

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8th
3-0-3 record · 6 played
1.50 points per game
-11 goal diff · 6–17
LWLLWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.4
+0.38 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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DKSC
8th · 1.50 PPG
at
West Side Alliance
15th · 0.00 PPG

RiverCity Parks, Field 9 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.3 against · 1.77 expected points)

Season so farDKSCWest Side Alliance
Position8th15th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-30-0-6
Points per game1.500.00
Goals for / game1.00.3
Goals against / game2.83.3
Clean sheets30
Held scoreless24
Form (recent first)W L L W LL L L L L
Biggest win2–0 vs Albion Hurricanes FC—
Worst loss0–9 at SOLAR SC0–5 vs FC Westlake
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.08-1.75
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.38+0.62

Common opponents: Albion Hurricanes FC — we 2–0; they 1–3. Challenge SC — we 0–3; they 0–2.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    West Side Alliance average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 4 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    West Side Alliance concede 3.3/game; worst result 0–5 vs FC Westlake.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–9 at SOLAR SC, 0–3 vs Challenge SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 52% / draw 22% / loss 26%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    West Side Alliance have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at RiverCity Parks.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    FC Dallas Youth sit 7th on 1.60 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above FC Dallas Youth on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the West Side Alliance game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (DKSC – West Side Alliance) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.43 PPG
8th— holds 9th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 2
Win
1.71 PPG
7th▲ up 1 8th— holds 9th▼ down 1
Draw
1.43 PPG
8th— holds 9th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 2
Loss
1.29 PPG
10th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
10.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 6%
  9. 9th 18%
  10. 10th 21%
  11. 11th 31%
  12. 12th 18%
  13. 13th 4%
  14. 14th 1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SOLAR SC 3.00 (+1.50) 1st (2.78) 36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Westlake 2.38 (+0.88) 2nd (2.25) 27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
3 Lonestar ATX Red 2.38 (+0.88) 3rd (2.21) 27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
4 Sting Royal 2.17 (+0.67) 4th (1.93) 24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
5 Challenge SC 2.00 (+0.50) 7th (1.73) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
6 Real Colorado National 1.92 (+0.42) 5th (1.92) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
7 FC Dallas Youth 1.60 (+0.10) 8th (1.63) A point next game

How the results connect

18 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link DKSC to West Side Alliance through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

10 favour us
2 even
6 favour them
+1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–3 2–0 2–0 3–1 1–5 3–2 3–0 3–1 2–2 5–0 2–2 4–1 0–9 2–0 2–0 0–2 1–3 3–0 4–1 1–0 0–1 1–2 DKSC 8th Challenge SC 5th Albion Hurricanes FC 12th Real Colorado Natio… 6th SOLAR SC 1st Colorado Storm 11th Dallas Texans 14th FC Dallas Youth 7th FC Westlake 2nd Lonestar ATX Red 3rd Sting Royal 4th West Side Alliance 15th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 18 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.17 · 10th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM
West Side Alliance
15th · 0-0-6 · GD -18
Away far trip
RiverCity Parks
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–1 1.77 1.54 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
OK Energy FC
9th · 2-2-2 · GD +5
Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–3 0.34 1.39 Upside
Sat Dec 12
01:00 PM
Colorado Rush
13th · 1-0-5 · GD -15
Home
Clark East Field
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.83 1.44 Swing game
Sun Dec 13
01:00 PM
Real Colorado Athletico
16th · 0-0-7 · GD -26
Home
Clark East Field
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
2–1 2.27 1.52 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
09:00 AM
Sting Royal
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +8
Home
Clark East Field
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–3 0.51 1.43 Upside
Sun Apr 18
01:00 PM
FC Dallas Youth
7th · 2-2-1 · GD +4
Home
Clark East Field
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–2 0.68 1.37 Upside
Sat May 1
09:00 AM
FC Westlake
2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +16
Away far trip
Onion Creek Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
4%
0–3 0.21 1.28 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 PM
Lonestar ATX Red
3rd · 6-1-1 · GD +13
Away far trip
St. Andrew's Episcopal School
●●●●● Very tough
6%
0–3 0.27 1.21 Upside
Sat May 8
01:00 PM
Sting Black
10th · 2-2-2 · GD -4
Away
Sting National Training Center
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.93 1.19 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SOLAR SC 6600 241+23 183.00 WWWWW +0.19 -0.43 100% 1.0
2 FC Westlake 8611 259+16 192.38 WWWLW -0.34 +0.15 91% 2.8
3 Lonestar ATX Red 8611 229+13 192.38 WWWWL -0.34 +0.19 87% 3.1
4 Sting Royal 6411 168+8 132.17 WWWLD -0.06 -0.08 44% 4.9
5 Challenge SC 8512 199+10 162.00 LLWWD -0.69 +0.70 12% 6.5
6 Real Colorado National 12723 3019+11 231.92 LWWWW -0.04 -0.39 32% 5.2
7 FC Dallas Youth 5221 106+4 81.60 WLDWD +0.09 -0.11 7% 7.3
8 DKSC 6303 617-11 91.50 LWLLW +0.38 -0.17 0% 10.4
9 OK Energy FC 6222 1712+5 81.33 LDWWD +0.62 -0.56 27% 5.7
10 Sting Black 6222 711-4 81.33 DWWDL +0.10 -0.05 0% 9.8
11 Colorado Storm 11416 912-3 131.18 WWLDL +0.14 -0.44 0% 9.9
12 Albion Hurricanes FC 8305 1215-3 91.13 LLLLW -0.70 +0.87 0% 11.7
13 Colorado Rush 6105 419-15 30.50 LLLLW +0.10 +0.03 0% 13.6
14 Dallas Texans 7016 111-10 10.14 LLLLL +0.62 -0.43 0% 13.9
15 West Side Alliance 6006 220-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.62 -0.28 0% 14.6
16 Real Colorado Athletico 7007 329-26 00.00 LLLLL +0.23 +0.06 0% 15.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.