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Dallas Texans

ECNL Girls · Texas GU15 · 16 teams · Dallas Texans (all teams)

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14th
0-1-6 record · 7 played
0.14 points per game
-10 goal diff · 1–11
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 13.9
+0.62 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 09:00 AM

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Dallas Texans
14th · 0.14 PPG
at
Colorado Rush
13th · 0.50 PPG

Stargate , Di Biasi East ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.9 for, 1.0 against · 1.27 expected points)

Season so farDallas TexansColorado Rush
Position14th13th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-61-0-5
Points per game0.140.50
Goals for / game0.10.7
Goals against / game1.63.2
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless64
Form (recent first)L L L L LW L L L L
Biggest win—3–1 vs Real Colorado Athletico
Worst loss0–3 at SOLAR SC0–6 at Lonestar ATX Red
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.89-1.50
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.62+0.10

Common opponents: Real Colorado National — we 0–2; they 0–2. Lonestar ATX Red — we 0–1; they 0–6. FC Westlake — we 1–3; they 1–5.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Colorado Rush average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 4 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Colorado Rush concede 3.2/game; worst result 0–6 at Lonestar ATX Red.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 6 time(s): 0–1 vs DKSC, 0–0 vs Sting Black, 0–1 vs Colorado Storm, 0–2 vs Real Colorado National, 0–3 at SOLAR SC, 0–1 vs Lonestar ATX Red.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 32%; a draw (31%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Stargate .

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Colorado Rush sit 13th on 0.50 PPG; we are on 0.14.

    A win moves us above Colorado Rush on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Colorado Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Dallas Texans – Colorado Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.13 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 16th▼ down 2
Win
0.50 PPG
13th▲ up 1 13th▲ up 1 14th— holds
Draw
0.25 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 16th▼ down 2
Loss
0.13 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 16th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we stay 14th even if every rival loses, and as low as 16th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
13.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th 7%
  13. 13th 27%
  14. 14th 33%
  15. 15th 24%
  16. 16th 7%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 1.67 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SOLAR SC 3.00 (+2.86) 1st (2.78) 44 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Westlake 2.38 (+2.24) 2nd (2.25) 35 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Lonestar ATX Red 2.38 (+2.24) 3rd (2.21) 35 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Sting Royal 2.17 (+2.03) 4th (1.93) 32 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Challenge SC 2.00 (+1.86) 7th (1.73) 29 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Real Colorado National 1.92 (+1.78) 5th (1.92) 28 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 FC Dallas Youth 1.60 (+1.46) 8th (1.63) 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
8 DKSC 1.50 (+1.36) 11th (1.19) 22 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
9 OK Energy FC 1.33 (+1.19) 6th (1.81) 19 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
10 Sting Black 1.33 (+1.19) 9th (1.28) 19 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
11 Colorado Storm 1.18 (+1.04) 10th (1.24) 17 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
12 Albion Hurricanes FC 1.13 (+0.99) 12th (0.96) 16 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
13 Colorado Rush 0.50 (+0.36) 13th (0.65) Win next game

How the results connect

26 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Dallas Texans to Colorado Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

20 favour us
3 even
3 favour them
+1.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 2–0 1–3 5–1 0–1 6–0 2–2 0–1 3–0 1–3 5–0 2–2 4–0 1–3 3–0 0–0 1–2 0–1 0–3 Dallas Texans 14th Real Colorado Natio… 6th FC Westlake 2nd Lonestar ATX Red 3rd Colorado Storm 11th Sting Black 10th DKSC 8th Real Colorado Athle… 16th Challenge SC 5th Colorado Rush 13th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 18 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.43 · 14th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
Colorado Rush
13th · 1-0-5 · GD -15
Away far trip
Stargate
●●●●○ Tough
32%
0–1 1.27 0.28 Upside
Sun Nov 8
01:30 PM
Real Colorado Athletico
16th · 0-0-7 · GD -26
Away far trip
Real Colorado Soccer Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
1–0 1.62 0.43 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
01:00 PM
OK Energy FC
9th · 2-2-2 · GD +5
Home
Heritage High School
●●●●● Very tough
11%
0–2 0.53 0.44 Upside
Sun Dec 6
01:00 PM
West Side Alliance
15th · 0-0-6 · GD -18
Home
Heritage High School
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–0 1.62 0.55 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
01:00 PM
FC Dallas Youth
7th · 2-2-1 · GD +4
Away far trip
Toyota Soccer Center
●●●●● Very tough
10%
0–1 0.51 0.55 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Albion Hurricanes FC
12th · 3-0-5 · GD -3
Away
●●●●● Very tough
19%
0–1 0.85 0.57 Upside
Sun May 2
09:00 AM
Challenge SC
5th · 5-1-2 · GD +10
Away far trip
Burroughs Park
●●●●● Very tough
9%
0–1 0.45 0.56 Upside
Sat May 8
11:00 AM
Sting Royal
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +8
Away far trip
Sting National Training Center
●●●●● Very tough
8%
0–2 0.39 0.55 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SOLAR SC 6600 241+23 183.00 WWWWW +0.19 -0.43 100% 1.0
2 FC Westlake 8611 259+16 192.38 WWWLW -0.34 +0.15 91% 2.8
3 Lonestar ATX Red 8611 229+13 192.38 WWWWL -0.34 +0.19 88% 3.1
4 Sting Royal 6411 168+8 132.17 WWWLD -0.06 -0.08 42% 5.0
5 Challenge SC 8512 199+10 162.00 LLWWD -0.69 +0.70 13% 6.5
6 Real Colorado National 12723 3019+11 231.92 LWWWW -0.04 -0.39 32% 5.2
7 FC Dallas Youth 5221 106+4 81.60 WLDWD +0.09 -0.11 7% 7.3
8 DKSC 6303 617-11 91.50 LWLLW +0.38 -0.17 0% 10.5
9 OK Energy FC 6222 1712+5 81.33 LDWWD +0.62 -0.56 27% 5.6
10 Sting Black 6222 711-4 81.33 DWWDL +0.10 -0.05 0% 9.7
11 Colorado Storm 11416 912-3 131.18 WWLDL +0.14 -0.44 0% 9.9
12 Albion Hurricanes FC 8305 1215-3 91.13 LLLLW -0.70 +0.87 0% 11.7
13 Colorado Rush 6105 419-15 30.50 LLLLW +0.10 +0.03 0% 13.6
14 Dallas Texans 7016 111-10 10.14 LLLLL +0.62 -0.43 0% 13.9
15 West Side Alliance 6006 220-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.62 -0.28 0% 14.6
16 Real Colorado Athletico 7007 329-26 00.00 LLLLL +0.23 +0.06 0% 15.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.