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FC Dallas Youth

ECNL Girls · Texas GU15 · 16 teams · FC Dallas Youth (all teams)

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7th
2-2-1 record · 5 played
1.60 points per game
+4 goal diff · 10–6
WLDWDlast 5
7% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.3
+0.09 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:30 PM

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FC Dallas Youth
7th · 1.60 PPG
at
Real Colorado Athletico
16th · 0.00 PPG

Real Colorado Soccer Complex, RCSC 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.3 for, 0.8 against · 2.66 expected points)

Season so farFC Dallas YouthReal Colorado Athletico
Position7th16th
Record (W-D-L)2-2-10-0-7
Points per game1.600.00
Goals for / game2.00.4
Goals against / game1.24.1
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless04
Form (recent first)D W D L WL L L L L
Biggest win3–0 vs West Side Alliance—
Worst loss2–3 vs Real Colorado National0–7 at Real Colorado National
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.46-2.42
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.09+0.23

Common opponents: Colorado Storm — we 2–0; they 0–3. Real Colorado National — we 2–3; they 0–7.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Real Colorado Athletico average 0.4 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 4 of 7.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Real Colorado Athletico concede 4.1/game; worst result 0–7 at Real Colorado National.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 85% chance; likely score 3–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Real Colorado Athletico have lost 7 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:30 PM at Real Colorado Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Real Colorado Athletico game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth – Real Colorado Athletico) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.83 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1
Win
1.83 PPG
7th— holds 7th— holds 8th▼ down 1
Draw
1.50 PPG
7th— holds 8th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 3
Loss
1.33 PPG
9th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
7% top 4
93% below the top 4
7.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 2%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 8%
  6. 6th 13%
  7. 7th 21%
  8. 8th 34%
  9. 9th 11%
  10. 10th 5%
  11. 11th 2%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SOLAR SC 3.00 (+1.40) 1st (2.78) 37 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Westlake 2.38 (+0.78) 2nd (2.25) 28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
3 Lonestar ATX Red 2.38 (+0.78) 3rd (2.21) 28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
4 Sting Royal 2.17 (+0.57) 4th (1.93) 25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
5 Challenge SC 2.00 (+0.40) 7th (1.73) 22 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
6 Real Colorado National 1.92 (+0.32) 5th (1.92) 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection

How the results connect

21 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dallas Youth to Real Colorado Athletico through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

20 favour us
1 favour them
+4.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 3–0 2–3 7–0 1–3 3–1 1–1 3–3 3–0 0–5 5–0 0–2 1–2 4–0 2–0 3–1 2–2 2–2 1–0 1–4 1–3 4–1 FC Dallas Youth 7th Colorado Storm 11th Real Colorado Natio… 6th OK Energy FC 9th West Side Alliance 15th Sting Royal 4th Challenge SC 5th FC Westlake 2nd Lonestar ATX Red 3rd Colorado Rush 13th Albion Hurricanes FC 12th Real Colorado Athle… 16th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 18 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.11 · 9th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:30 PM
Real Colorado Athletico
16th · 0-0-7 · GD -26
Away far trip
Real Colorado Soccer Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
3–0 2.66 1.78 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
TBD
Colorado Rush
13th · 1-0-5 · GD -15
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
2–0 2.35 1.86 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM
Lonestar ATX Red
3rd · 6-1-1 · GD +13
Away far trip
Burger Activity Center
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.93 1.74 Upside
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM
FC Westlake
2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +16
Away far trip
Hill Country Middle School
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.82 1.64 Upside
Sat Nov 21
11:00 AM
Challenge SC
5th · 5-1-2 · GD +10
Away far trip
Burroughs Park
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.14 1.59 Upside
Sun Nov 22
11:00 AM
Albion Hurricanes FC
12th · 3-0-5 · GD -3
Away far trip
Campbell Road Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
1–1 1.84 1.61 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
01:00 PM
Sting Black
10th · 2-2-2 · GD -4
Away
Sting National Training Center
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–1 1.79 1.63 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
01:00 PM
DKSC
8th · 3-0-3 · GD -11
Away
Clark East Field
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.15 1.67 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
01:00 PM
Dallas Texans
14th · 0-1-6 · GD -10
Home
Toyota Soccer Center
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
1–0 2.27 1.71 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD
SOLAR SC
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +23
Home
●●●●● Very tough
11%
0–2 0.48 1.63 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SOLAR SC 6600 241+23 183.00 WWWWW +0.19 -0.43 100% 1.0
2 FC Westlake 8611 259+16 192.38 WWWLW -0.34 +0.15 91% 2.8
3 Lonestar ATX Red 8611 229+13 192.38 WWWWL -0.34 +0.19 87% 3.1
4 Sting Royal 6411 168+8 132.17 WWWLD -0.06 -0.08 41% 5.0
5 Challenge SC 8512 199+10 162.00 LLWWD -0.69 +0.70 12% 6.5
6 Real Colorado National 12723 3019+11 231.92 LWWWW -0.04 -0.39 35% 5.1
7 FC Dallas Youth 5221 106+4 81.60 WLDWD +0.09 -0.11 7% 7.3
8 DKSC 6303 617-11 91.50 LWLLW +0.38 -0.17 0% 10.5
9 OK Energy FC 6222 1712+5 81.33 LDWWD +0.62 -0.56 26% 5.7
10 Sting Black 6222 711-4 81.33 DWWDL +0.10 -0.05 0% 9.7
11 Colorado Storm 11416 912-3 131.18 WWLDL +0.14 -0.44 0% 9.9
12 Albion Hurricanes FC 8305 1215-3 91.13 LLLLW -0.70 +0.87 0% 11.7
13 Colorado Rush 6105 419-15 30.50 LLLLW +0.10 +0.03 0% 13.5
14 Dallas Texans 7016 111-10 10.14 LLLLL +0.62 -0.43 0% 13.9
15 West Side Alliance 6006 220-18 00.00 LLLLL +0.62 -0.28 0% 14.6
16 Real Colorado Athletico 7007 329-26 00.00 LLLLL +0.23 +0.06 0% 15.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.