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Team Boca

ECNL Girls · Southeast GU15 · 16 teams · Team Boca (all teams)

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3rd
5-2-1 record · 8 played
2.13 points per game
+11 goal diff · 18–7
WWDWLlast 5
54% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.3
-0.05 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Mar 13, 09:00 AM

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Team Boca
3rd · 2.13 PPG
at
Florida Kraze Krush
1st · 2.67 PPG

Central Winds, Field B ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.6 for, 2.1 against · 1.08 expected points)

Season so farTeam BocaFlorida Kraze Krush
Position3rd1st
Record (W-D-L)5-2-18-0-1
Points per game2.132.67
Goals for / game2.33.6
Goals against / game0.91.2
Clean sheets33
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)L W D W WL W W W W
Biggest win5–1 at Alabama FC5–0 at Concorde Fire Premier
Worst loss1–2 vs United Futbol Academy2–3 vs GSA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.97+1.63
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.05-0.09

Common opponents: CESA Liberty — we 1–1; they 2–1. South Carolina United — we 1–0; they 5–1. Alabama FC — we 5–1; they 4–2. Concorde Fire Premier — we 1–0; they 5–0. GSA — we 3–1; they 2–3. Concorde Fire Platinum — we 2–2; they 1–0. Atlanta Fire United — we 4–0; they 8–3. United Futbol Academy — we 1–2; they 2–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Florida Kraze Krush score 3.6/game — well above the league's 1.8.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 29%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Central Winds.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Concorde Fire Platinum sit 2nd on 2.13 PPG; we are on 2.13.

    A point moves us above Concorde Fire Platinum on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Florida Kraze Krush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Team Boca – Florida Kraze Krush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Mar 8 – Sun Mar 14); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.89 PPG
5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3
Win
2.22 PPG
2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1
Draw
2.00 PPG
4th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3
Loss
1.89 PPG
5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

4% finish 1st
54% top 4
46% below the top 4
4.3 average finish
  1. 1st 4%
  2. 2nd 11%
  3. 3rd 18%
  4. 4th 20%
  5. 5th 19%
  6. 6th 16%
  7. 7th 9%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Florida Kraze Krush 2.67 (+0.54) 1st (2.45) 24 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
2 Concorde Fire Platinum 2.13 (+0.00) 2nd (2.19) A point next game

How the results connect

16 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Team Boca to Florida Kraze Krush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
11 favour them
-0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–0 3–8 2–2 0–1 1–1 1–2 1–2 1–2 5–1 2–4 3–1 3–2 1–0 1–5 1–0 0–5 0–2 0–3 2–2 3–0 1–1 Team Boca 3rd Atlanta Fire United 14th Concorde Fire Plati… 2nd CESA Liberty 7th United Futbol Acade… 12th Alabama FC 13th GSA 8th South Carolina Unit… 15th Concorde Fire Premi… 4th Jacksonville FC 10th Florida Kraze Krush 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.08 · 11th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Mar 13
09:00 AM
Florida Kraze Krush
1st · 8-0-1 · GD +21
Away far trip
Central Winds
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.08 2.01 Upside
Sun Mar 14
01:00 PM
Seminole United
9th · 4-2-4 · GD -5
Away far trip
Seminole
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.15 2.02 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
09:00 AM
Florida Premier FC
5th · 5-1-2 · GD +10
Home
Fau Glades
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
1–1 1.67 1.99 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
09:00 AM
Tampa Bay United
11th · 3-1-4 · GD -9
Home
Fau Glades
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.47 2.03 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
10:30 AM
Jacksonville FC
10th · 3-4-3 · GD -10
Away far trip
Patton Park · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–0 2.20 2.04 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
09:00 AM
Sporting SA JAX
16th · 0-1-8 · GD -27
Away far trip
Veterans Park
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
3–0 2.77 2.10 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
09:00 AM
Athletic Club Florida
6th · 4-1-2 · GD +12
Away far trip
Nob Hill Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.16 2.03 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Florida Kraze Krush 9801 3211+21 242.67 WWWWL -0.09 -0.09 99% 1.4
2 Concorde Fire Platinum 8521 268+18 172.13 WWDLW +0.08 -0.25 85% 2.9
3 Team Boca 8521 187+11 172.13 WWDWL -0.05 -0.08 54% 4.3
4 Concorde Fire Premier 8512 269+17 162.00 LWWWD -0.03 -0.25 70% 3.7
5 Florida Premier FC 8512 2010+10 162.00 WWLLW -0.06 -0.06 32% 5.2
6 Athletic Club Florida 7412 186+12 131.86 LWLWW -0.04 -0.11 47% 4.6
7 CESA Liberty 8422 115+6 141.75 WWLWW +0.00 -0.11 13% 6.3
8 GSA 8404 1615+1 121.50 WLLLW +0.08 -0.05 1% 8.2
9 Seminole United 10424 1924-5 141.40 WDDWL -0.29 +0.76 0% 10.8
10 Jacksonville FC 10343 1121-10 131.30 WWDDD +0.12 -0.01 0% 10.3
11 Tampa Bay United 8314 1221-9 101.25 WLDWL -0.06 +0.17 0% 11.3
12 United Futbol Academy 7223 89-1 81.14 LLLDW -0.03 +0.13 0% 10.5
13 Alabama FC 8224 1319-6 81.00 LLDDW -0.03 +0.05 0% 11.5
14 Atlanta Fire United 8107 1031-21 30.38 LLLLL +0.14 +0.24 0% 14.4
15 South Carolina United 8017 522-17 10.13 LLDLL +0.00 +0.18 0% 14.7
16 Sporting SA JAX 9018 128-27 10.11 LLDLL -0.04 +0.52 0% 15.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.82 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.