CESA Liberty
ECNL Girls · Southeast GU15 · 16 teams · Carolina Elite Soccer Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
Fowler Park, Field 6 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.1 for, 0.8 against · 1.65 expected points)
| Season so far | CESA Liberty | United Futbol Academy |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 12th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-2-2 | 2-2-3 |
| Points per game | 1.75 | 1.14 |
| Goals for / game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals against / game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W L W W | W D L L L |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at Florida Premier FC | 1–0 vs Sporting SA JAX |
| Worst loss | 1–2 vs Florida Kraze Krush | 0–1 vs Tampa Bay United |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.55 | -0.11 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | -0.03 |
Common opponents: Team Boca — we 1–1; they 2–1. Florida Kraze Krush — we 1–2; they 1–2. Seminole United — we 2–0; they 1–1. Sporting SA JAX — we 2–0; they 1–0. Jacksonville FC — we 0–1; they 1–1. Florida Premier FC — we 3–0; they 2–3. Tampa Bay United — we 1–0; they 0–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at Jacksonville FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 45% / draw 31% / loss 24%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Fowler Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Athletic Club Florida sit 6th on 1.86 PPG; we are on 1.75.A point moves us above Athletic Club Florida on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the United Futbol Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CESA Liberty – United Futbol Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.89 PPG |
6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 |
| Win 1.89 PPG |
6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.67 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.56 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 4%
- 4th 7%
- 5th 11%
- 6th 25%
- 7th 36%
- 8th 12%
- 9th 3%
- 10th 1%
- 11th <1%
- 12th <1%
- 13th
- 14th
- 15th
- 16th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida Kraze Krush | 2.67 (+0.92) | 1st (2.45) | 27 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 2.13 (+0.38) | 2nd (2.19) | 18 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 3 | Team Boca | 2.13 (+0.38) | 4th (2.03) | 18 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 4 | Concorde Fire Premier | 2.00 (+0.25) | 3rd (2.08) | 16 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 5 | Florida Premier FC | 2.00 (+0.25) | 6th (1.91) | 16 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 6 | Athletic Club Florida | 1.86 (+0.11) | 5th (1.98) | A point next game |
How the results connect
13 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link CESA Liberty to United Futbol Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.11 · 13th hardest of 16
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
United Futbol Academy 12th · 2-2-3 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Fowler Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–0 | 1.65 | 1.74 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 10:30 AM |
Atlanta Fire United 14th · 1-0-7 · GD -21 |
Away far trip
Pinecrest Academy · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
2–0 | 2.42 | 1.81 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM |
GSA 8th · 4-0-4 · GD +1 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
1–0 | 1.83 | 1.81 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 2nd · 5-2-1 · GD +18 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.15 | 1.75 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 09:00 AM |
Alabama FC 13th · 2-2-4 · GD -6 |
Home GE Vernova Park · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
1–0 | 2.13 | 1.78 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 09:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Premier 4th · 5-1-2 · GD +17 |
Home GE Vernova Park · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.19 | 1.74 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 13 01:00 PM |
South Carolina United 15th · 0-1-7 · GD -17 |
Away far trip
Southeastern Freight Lines Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
1–0 | 2.32 | 1.78 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Florida Kraze Krush | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 11 | +21 | 24 | 2.67 | WWWWL | -0.09 | -0.09 | 99% | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Team Boca · Sun Mar 14 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sat Apr 3 at Florida Premier FC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 17 | 2.13 | WWDLW | +0.08 | -0.25 | 87% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Oct 25 vs Alabama FC · Sat Nov 7 at South Carolina United See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Team Boca | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 17 | 2.13 | WWDWL | -0.05 | -0.08 | 53% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 at Florida Kraze Krush · Sun Mar 14 at Seminole United · Sat Mar 20 vs Florida Premier FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Concorde Fire Premier | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 9 | +17 | 16 | 2.00 | LWWWD | -0.03 | -0.25 | 71% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Oct 25 at GSA · Sat Nov 7 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Florida Premier FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 16 | 2.00 | WWLLW | -0.06 | -0.06 | 30% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 at Jacksonville FC · Sun Mar 14 at Sporting SA JAX · Sat Mar 20 at Team Boca See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Athletic Club Florida | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 13 | 1.86 | LWLWW | -0.04 | -0.11 | 49% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs United Futbol Academy · Sat Mar 13 at Seminole United · Sun Mar 14 at Florida Kraze Krush See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | CESA Liberty | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 14 | 1.75 | WWLWW | +0.00 | -0.11 | 12% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at United Futbol Academy · Sun Oct 25 at Atlanta Fire United · Sat Nov 7 vs GSA See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | GSA | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 12 | 1.50 | WLLLW | +0.08 | -0.05 | 1% | 8.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Alabama FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sat Nov 7 at CESA Liberty See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Seminole United | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 14 | 1.40 | WDDWL | -0.29 | +0.76 | 0% | 10.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sun Mar 14 vs Team Boca · Sat Apr 3 at Tampa Bay United See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Jacksonville FC | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 13 | 1.30 | WWDDD | +0.12 | -0.01 | 0% | 10.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Florida Premier FC · Sun Mar 14 vs Tampa Bay United · Sat Apr 10 vs Team Boca See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Tampa Bay United | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 10 | 1.25 | WLDWL | -0.06 | +0.17 | 0% | 11.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 at Sporting SA JAX · Sun Mar 14 at Jacksonville FC · Sat Mar 20 at Athletic Club Florida See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | United Futbol Academy | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 | 1.14 | LLLDW | -0.03 | +0.13 | 0% | 10.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Athletic Club Florida · Sat Oct 24 vs CESA Liberty · Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina United See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Alabama FC | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 8 | 1.00 | LLDDW | -0.03 | +0.05 | 0% | 11.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at GSA · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Nov 7 vs United Futbol Academy See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Atlanta Fire United | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 3 | 0.38 | LLLLL | +0.14 | +0.24 | 0% | 14.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina United · Sun Oct 25 vs CESA Liberty · Sun Nov 1 vs United Futbol Academy See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | South Carolina United | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 22 | -17 | 1 | 0.13 | LLDLL | +0.00 | +0.18 | 0% | 14.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atlanta Fire United · Sun Oct 25 at United Futbol Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Concorde Fire Platinum See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Sporting SA JAX | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 28 | -27 | 1 | 0.11 | LLDLL | -0.04 | +0.52 | 0% | 15.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Tampa Bay United · Sun Mar 14 vs Florida Premier FC · Sat Apr 10 vs Athletic Club Florida See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.82 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.