Tampa Bay United

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Veterans Park, Field 2 ↗ far trip

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.3 for, 0.8 against · 2.32 expected points)

Common opponents: GSA — we 2–3; they 0–4. Concorde Fire Platinum — we 1–7; they 0–2. United Futbol Academy — we 1–0; they 0–1. Atlanta Fire United — we 3–1; they 0–5. Concorde Fire Premier — we 0–6; they 0–8. Alabama FC — we 2–2; they 0–3. South Carolina United — we 3–1; they 0–0. CESA Liberty — we 0–1; they 0–2.

• They struggle to score
  Sporting SA JAX average 0.1 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 8 of 9.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Sporting SA JAX concede 3.1/game; worst result 0–8 vs Concorde Fire Premier.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–6 vs Concorde Fire Premier, 0–1 vs CESA Liberty.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 2–0.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Away game
  Kickoff 01:00 PM at Veterans Park.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  Jacksonville FC sit 10th on 1.30 PPG; we are on 1.25.

  A point moves us above Jacksonville FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Sporting SA JAX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Tampa Bay United – Sporting SA JAX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Mar 8 – Sun Mar 14); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 9th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th
5. 5th
6. 6th <1%
7. 7th 1%
8. 8th 3%
9. 9th 12%
10. 10th 13%
11. 11th 18%
12. 12th 24%
13. 13th 29%
14. 14th 1%
15. 15th
16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.07 PPG if we win out).