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Pipeline SC

ECNL Girls · North Atlantic GU14 · 10 teams · Pipeline SC (all teams)

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10th
0-0-6 record · 6 played
0.00 points per game
-36 goal diff · 0–36
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.9
+0.91 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:15 AM

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Pipeline SC
10th · 0.00 PPG
at
Match Fit Surf
6th · 1.67 PPG

Morris Catholic High School, Field 2 Lower ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–5 (expected goals 0.6 for, 5.4 against · 0.04 expected points)

Season so farPipeline SCMatch Fit Surf
Position10th6th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-63-1-2
Points per game0.001.67
Goals for / game0.02.3
Goals against / game6.01.7
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless61
Form (recent first)L L L L LL W L W W
Biggest win—7–2 at HEX FC Bucks
Worst loss0–10 at FC DELCO1–4 at Maryland United FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-3.63+0.52
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.91+0.41

Common opponents: Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals — we 0–5; they 2–0. Maryland United FC — we 0–5; they 1–4. FC DELCO — we 0–10; they 0–1. PDA Blue — we 0–6; they 3–2. PDA White — we 0–3; they 1–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 6 time(s): 0–5 at Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals, 0–5 vs Maryland United FC, 0–10 at FC DELCO, 0–7 vs Bethesda SC, 0–6 vs PDA Blue, 0–3 vs PDA White.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 1%; a draw (2%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:15 AM at Morris Catholic High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    HEX FC Bucks sit 9th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above HEX FC Bucks on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Match Fit Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pipeline SC – Match Fit Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds
Win
0.43 PPG
9th▲ up 1 9th▲ up 1 10th— holds
Draw
0.14 PPG
9th▲ up 1 9th▲ up 1 10th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–5 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
9.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th 8%
  10. 10th 92%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC DELCO 2.71 (+2.71) 1st (2.43) 49 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Maryland United FC 2.25 (+2.25) 2nd (1.92) 41 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
3 PDA White 2.00 (+2.00) 5th (1.70) 36 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
4 PDA Blue 1.83 (+1.83) 3rd (1.91) 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
5 Bethesda SC 1.67 (+1.67) 4th (1.74) 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
6 Match Fit Surf 1.67 (+1.67) 6th (1.68) 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
7 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 1.50 (+1.50) 7th (1.36) 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
8 Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals 0.60 (+0.60) 8th (1.02) 11 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
9 HEX FC Bucks 0.00 (+0.00) 9th (0.42) Already ahead

How the results connect

19 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Pipeline SC to Match Fit Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
19 favour them
-6.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–5 4–1 0–3 1–1 0–6 2–3 0–5 0–2 0–10 1–0 5–1 2–7 2–0 1–3 3–3 2–0 Pipeline SC 10th Maryland United FC 2nd PDA White 3rd PDA Blue 4th Philadelphia Ukrani… 8th FC DELCO 1st HEX FC Bucks 9th Match Fit Surf 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 5th 10th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.14 · 2nd hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
11:15 AM
Match Fit Surf
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +4
Away
Morris Catholic High School
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–5 0.04 0.01 Upside
Sat Nov 7
02:15 PM
HEX FC Bucks
9th · 0-0-5 · GD -19
Home
Mercy High School
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.75 0.10 Upside
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy
7th · 3-0-3 · GD -3
Away far trip
USTC
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–3 0.15 0.10 Upside
Sat Mar 20
10:30 AM
Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals
8th · 1-0-4 · GD -1
Home
Mercy High School
●●●●● Very tough
5%
0–3 0.27 0.12 Upside
Sun Mar 21
10:30 AM
FC DELCO
1st · 6-1-0 · GD +21
Home
Mercy High School
●●●●● Very tough
0%
0–6 0.01 0.11 Upside
Sat Mar 27
TBD
Maryland United FC
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +8
Away
●●●●● Very tough
0%
0–5 0.03 0.10 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Bethesda SC
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +10
Away
●●●●● Very tough
0%
0–5 0.03 0.10 Upside
Sat Apr 17
09:00 AM
PDA Blue
4th · 3-2-1 · GD +9
Away far trip
PDA Main Complex
●●●●● Very tough
0%
0–6 0.02 0.09 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
PDA White
3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +7
Away
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–5 0.04 0.09 Upside
Sat May 1
10:30 AM
Match Fit Surf
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +4
Home
Notre Dame Prepatory School
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–4 0.08 0.09 Upside
Sat May 8
10:30 AM
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy
7th · 3-0-3 · GD -3
Home
Mercy High School
●●●●● Very tough
5%
0–3 0.23 0.10 Upside
Sun May 16
TBD
HEX FC Bucks
9th · 0-0-5 · GD -19
Away
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–2 0.54 0.12 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC DELCO 7610 276+21 192.71 WWWWW -0.36 -0.14 100% 1.1
2 Maryland United FC 4301 124+8 92.25 WWWL -0.19 -0.05 77% 3.4
3 PDA White 5311 136+7 102.00 DWWLW -0.98 +0.22 44% 4.7
4 PDA Blue 6321 189+9 111.83 DLWWD +0.01 -0.21 81% 3.2
5 Bethesda SC 6312 166+10 101.67 LLWWD -0.53 +0.10 54% 4.4
6 Match Fit Surf 6312 1410+4 101.67 WWLWL +0.41 -0.29 40% 4.8
7 Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 6303 811-3 91.50 LWWLW +0.35 -0.16 5% 6.7
8 Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals 5104 67-1 30.60 WLLLL -0.20 +0.13 0% 7.8
9 HEX FC Bucks 5005 322-19 00.00 LLLLL +0.80 +0.02 0% 9.1
10 Pipeline SC 6006 036-36 00.00 LLLLL +0.91 +0.14 0% 9.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.97 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.