Match Fit Surf
ECNL Girls · North Atlantic GU14 · 10 teams · Match Fit Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:15 AM
Morris Catholic High School, Field 2 Lower ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 5–0 (expected goals 5.4 for, 0.6 against · 2.93 expected points)
| Season so far | Match Fit Surf | Pipeline SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-2 | 0-0-6 |
| Points per game | 1.67 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.3 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.7 | 6.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 6 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L W W | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 7–2 at HEX FC Bucks | — |
| Worst loss | 1–4 at Maryland United FC | 0–10 at FC DELCO |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.52 | -3.63 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.41 | +0.91 |
Common opponents: PDA White — we 1–1; they 0–3. PDA Blue — we 3–2; they 0–6. FC DELCO — we 0–1; they 0–10. Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals — we 2–0; they 0–5. Maryland United FC — we 1–4; they 0–5.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Pipeline SC average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.0); blanked in 6 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Pipeline SC concede 6.0/game; worst result 0–10 at FC DELCO.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at FC DELCO.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 97% chance; likely score 5–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
Pipeline SC have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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What a win does
Bethesda SC sit 5th on 1.67 PPG; we are on 1.67.A point moves us above Bethesda SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Pipeline SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Match Fit Surf – Pipeline SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.86 PPG |
4th▲ up 2 | 4th▲ up 2 | 6th— holds |
| Win 1.86 PPG |
4th▲ up 2 | 4th▲ up 2 | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.57 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.43 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 7%
- 3rd 12%
- 4th 19%
- 5th 25%
- 6th 24%
- 7th 11%
- 8th 1%
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.56 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC DELCO | 2.71 (+1.04) | 1st (2.43) | 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 2 | Maryland United FC | 2.25 (+0.58) | 2nd (1.92) | 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 3 | PDA White | 2.00 (+0.33) | 5th (1.70) | 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 4 | PDA Blue | 1.83 (+0.16) | 3rd (1.91) | A point next game |
| 5 | Bethesda SC | 1.67 (+0.00) | 4th (1.74) | A point next game |
How the results connect
19 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Match Fit Surf to Pipeline SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.29 · 10th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 11:15 AM |
Pipeline SC 10th · 0-0-6 · GD -36 |
Home Morris Catholic High School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
5–0 | 2.93 | 1.85 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 10:45 AM |
Bethesda SC 5th · 3-1-2 · GD +10 |
Away Maryland Soccerplex |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.98 | 1.74 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 11:15 AM |
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 7th · 3-0-3 · GD -3 |
Home Morris Catholic High School |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.94 | 1.76 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
PDA White 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +7 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–2 | 1.15 | 1.70 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 27 TBD |
HEX FC Bucks 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -19 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
4–0 | 2.72 | 1.79 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
FC DELCO 1st · 6-1-0 · GD +21 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.79 | 1.71 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals 8th · 1-0-4 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.66 | 1.71 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Maryland United FC 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +8 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–2 | 1.25 | 1.67 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 10:30 AM |
Pipeline SC 10th · 0-0-6 · GD -36 |
Away Notre Dame Prepatory School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
4–0 | 2.88 | 1.75 | Bank it |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Bethesda SC 5th · 3-1-2 · GD +10 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 1.72 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 7th · 3-0-3 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.68 | 1.72 | Swing game |
| Sat May 22 09:00 AM |
PDA Blue 4th · 3-2-1 · GD +9 |
Away PDA Main Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.98 | 1.68 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC DELCO | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 6 | +21 | 19 | 2.71 | WWWWW | -0.36 | -0.14 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals · Sat Nov 7 at PDA White · Sat Mar 20 at Bethesda SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Maryland United FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | -0.19 | -0.05 | 78% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 7 at Bethesda SC · Sun Nov 8 vs HEX FC Bucks See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | PDA White | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 10 | 2.00 | DWWLW | -0.98 | +0.22 | 43% | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Bethesda SC · Sat Nov 7 vs FC DELCO · Sat Nov 14 at Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | PDA Blue | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 11 | 1.83 | DLWWD | +0.01 | -0.21 | 79% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs HEX FC Bucks · Sat Nov 7 at Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals · Sat Nov 14 vs Maryland United FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Bethesda SC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 10 | 1.67 | LLWWD | -0.53 | +0.10 | 56% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at PDA White · Sat Oct 31 vs Match Fit Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Maryland United FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Match Fit Surf | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 10 | 1.67 | WWLWL | +0.41 | -0.29 | 39% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Pipeline SC · Sat Oct 31 at Bethesda SC · Sun Nov 8 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Penn Fusion Soccer Academy | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 9 | 1.50 | LWWLW | +0.35 | -0.16 | 5% | 6.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Maryland United FC · Sun Nov 8 at Match Fit Surf · Sat Nov 14 vs Pipeline SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | -0.20 | +0.13 | 0% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC DELCO · Sat Oct 31 at HEX FC Bucks · Sat Nov 7 vs PDA Blue See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | HEX FC Bucks | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 22 | -19 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.80 | +0.02 | 0% | 9.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at PDA Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals · Sat Nov 7 at Pipeline SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Pipeline SC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 36 | -36 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.91 | +0.14 | 0% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Match Fit Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs HEX FC Bucks · Sat Nov 14 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.97 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.