FC DELCO

ECNL Girls · North Atlantic GU14 · 10 teams · FC DELCO (all teams)

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1st

6-1-0 record · 7 played

2.71 points per game

+21 goal diff · 27–6

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.1

-0.36 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:30 PM

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FC DELCO
1st · 2.71 PPG

Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals
8th · 0.60 PPG

Downingtown East High School, Lower Field ↗

78% 13% 8%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.8 for, 0.8 against · 2.48 expected points)

Season so far	FC DELCO	Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals
Position	1st	8th
Record (W-D-L)	6-1-0	1-0-4
Points per game	2.71	0.60
Goals for / game	3.9	1.2
Goals against / game	0.9	1.4
Clean sheets	4	1
Held scoreless	0	3
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	L L L L W
Biggest win	10–0 vs Pipeline SC	5–0 vs Pipeline SC
Worst loss	—	1–3 at Maryland United FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.92	-0.22
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.36	-0.20

Common opponents: Pipeline SC — we 10–0; they 5–0. Bethesda SC — we 3–1; they 0–1. Match Fit Surf — we 1–0; they 0–2. Penn Fusion Soccer Academy — we 4–2; they 0–1. Maryland United FC — we 2–0; they 1–3.

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 78% chance; likely score 2–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals have lost 4 straight (form: WLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC DELCO – Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.75 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.75 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.50 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.38 PPG	1st— holds	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

89% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.1 average finish

1st 89%
2nd 8%
3rd 2%
4th <1%
5th <1%
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

20 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link FC DELCO to Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

18 favour us

2 even

0 favour them

+3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.14 · 7th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 12:30 PM	Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals 8th · 1-0-4 · GD -1	Home Downingtown East High School	●○○○○ Favorable	78%	2–0	2.48	2.69	Bank it
Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM	PDA White 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +7	Away far trip Monmouth Regional - Turf Complex · turf	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	2–1	1.90	2.60	Swing game
Sat Mar 20 TBD	Bethesda SC 5th · 3-1-2 · GD +10	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	2–1	1.72	2.51	Swing game
Sun Mar 21 10:30 AM	Pipeline SC 10th · 0-0-6 · GD -36	Away far trip Mercy High School	●○○○○ Favorable	99%	6–0	2.98	2.55	Bank it
Sat Mar 27 09:00 AM	PDA Blue 4th · 3-2-1 · GD +9	Away far trip PDA Main Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	53%	2–1	1.78	2.49	Swing game
Sun Apr 11 TBD	Match Fit Surf 6th · 3-1-2 · GD +4	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	62%	2–1	2.03	2.45	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 7th · 3-0-3 · GD -3	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	3–0	2.53	2.46	Bank it
Sat Apr 24 TBD	HEX FC Bucks 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -19	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	97%	5–0	2.94	2.49	Bank it
Sat May 1 TBD	Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals 8th · 1-0-4 · GD -1	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	2–0	2.29	2.48	Bank it
Sat May 8 TBD	Maryland United FC 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +8	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	61%	2–1	2.01	2.45	Swing game
Sat May 15 TBD	PDA White 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +7	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	66%	2–1	2.16	2.43	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

FC DELCO

+21

2.71

WWWWW

-0.36

-0.14

100%

1.1

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Maryland United FC (2nd)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	HEX FC Bucks (9th)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (7th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Match Fit Surf (6th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Bethesda SC (5th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Pipeline SC (10th)	10–0
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	PDA Blue (4th)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals · Sat Nov 7 at PDA White · Sat Mar 20 at Bethesda SC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals (8th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	PDA White (3rd)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Bethesda SC (5th)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Pipeline SC (10th)	6–0	99%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	PDA Blue (4th)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Match Fit Surf (6th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (7th)	3–0	80%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	HEX FC Bucks (9th)	5–0	97%
·	Sat May 1	at	Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals (8th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Maryland United FC (2nd)	2–1	61%
·	Sat May 15	vs	PDA White (3rd)	2–1	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Maryland United FC

2.25

WWWL

-0.19

-0.05

77%

3.4

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC DELCO (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Match Fit Surf (6th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals (8th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Pipeline SC (10th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 7 at Bethesda SC · Sun Nov 8 vs HEX FC Bucks See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (7th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Bethesda SC (5th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	HEX FC Bucks (9th)	4–0	92%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	PDA Blue (4th)	1–2	36%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	PDA White (3rd)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	HEX FC Bucks (9th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Pipeline SC (10th)	5–0	98%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	PDA Blue (4th)	2–1	46%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals (8th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	PDA White (3rd)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Match Fit Surf (6th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (7th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat May 8	at	FC DELCO (1st)	1–2	21%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Bethesda SC (5th)	1–1	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PDA White

2.00

DWWLW

-0.98

+0.22

45%

4.7

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Pipeline SC (10th)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	PDA Blue (4th)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	HEX FC Bucks (9th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (7th)	4–2
D	Sun Aug 30	at	Match Fit Surf (6th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Bethesda SC · Sat Nov 7 vs FC DELCO · Sat Nov 14 at Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Bethesda SC (5th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC DELCO (1st)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals (8th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Maryland United FC (2nd)	1–1	38%
·	Thu Mar 11	at	PDA Blue (4th)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Match Fit Surf (6th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (7th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	HEX FC Bucks (9th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals (8th)	1–1	59%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Maryland United FC (2nd)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Pipeline SC (10th)	5–0	97%
·	Sat May 1	at	Bethesda SC (5th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat May 15	at	FC DELCO (1st)	1–2	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PDA Blue

1.83

DLWWD

+0.01

-0.21

80%

3.3

D	Sat Oct 17	at	Bethesda SC (5th)	2–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	PDA White (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Pipeline SC (10th)	6–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Match Fit Surf (6th)	2–3
D	Sat Sep 12	at	FC DELCO (1st)	3–3
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (7th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs HEX FC Bucks · Sat Nov 7 at Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals · Sat Nov 14 vs Maryland United FC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	HEX FC Bucks (9th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals (8th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Maryland United FC (2nd)	2–1	44%
·	Thu Mar 11	vs	PDA White (3rd)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (7th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	FC DELCO (1st)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Maryland United FC (2nd)	1–2	34%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Pipeline SC (10th)	6–0	99%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Bethesda SC (5th)	2–1	43%
·	Sun May 2	at	HEX FC Bucks (9th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals (8th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Match Fit Surf (6th)	2–1	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Bethesda SC

+10

1.67

LLWWD

-0.53

+0.10

53%

4.4

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	PDA Blue (4th)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	HEX FC Bucks (9th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Pipeline SC (10th)	7–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	FC DELCO (1st)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (7th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals (8th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at PDA White · Sat Oct 31 vs Match Fit Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Maryland United FC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	PDA White (3rd)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Match Fit Surf (6th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Maryland United FC (2nd)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	FC DELCO (1st)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Pipeline SC (10th)	5–0	98%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (7th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	HEX FC Bucks (9th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PDA Blue (4th)	1–2	36%
·	Sat May 1	vs	PDA White (3rd)	1–1	49%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals (8th)	2–0	64%
·	Sun May 9	at	Match Fit Surf (6th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat May 15	at	Maryland United FC (2nd)	1–1	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Match Fit Surf

1.67

WWLWL

+0.41

-0.29

40%

4.8

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Maryland United FC (2nd)	1–4
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals (8th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	FC DELCO (1st)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	PDA Blue (4th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	HEX FC Bucks (9th)	7–2
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	PDA White (3rd)	1–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Pipeline SC · Sat Oct 31 at Bethesda SC · Sun Nov 8 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Pipeline SC (10th)	5–0	97%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Bethesda SC (5th)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (7th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	PDA White (3rd)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	HEX FC Bucks (9th)	4–0	88%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	FC DELCO (1st)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals (8th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Maryland United FC (2nd)	1–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	at	Pipeline SC (10th)	4–0	95%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Bethesda SC (5th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat May 15	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (7th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat May 22	at	PDA Blue (4th)	1–2	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Penn Fusion Soccer Academy

-3

1.50

LWWLW

+0.35

-0.16

6.6

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals (8th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC DELCO (1st)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	HEX FC Bucks (9th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Bethesda SC (5th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	PDA White (3rd)	2–4
L	Sat Aug 29	at	PDA Blue (4th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Maryland United FC · Sun Nov 8 at Match Fit Surf · Sat Nov 14 vs Pipeline SC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Maryland United FC (2nd)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Match Fit Surf (6th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Pipeline SC (10th)	3–0	91%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	PDA Blue (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	PDA White (3rd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	HEX FC Bucks (9th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Bethesda SC (5th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC DELCO (1st)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals (8th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat May 1	at	Maryland United FC (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat May 8	at	Pipeline SC (10th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Match Fit Surf (6th)	1–1	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals

-1

0.60

WLLLL

-0.20

+0.13

7.8

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (7th)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Match Fit Surf (6th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Maryland United FC (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Bethesda SC (5th)	0–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Pipeline SC (10th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC DELCO · Sat Oct 31 at HEX FC Bucks · Sat Nov 7 vs PDA Blue See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC DELCO (1st)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	HEX FC Bucks (9th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	PDA Blue (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	PDA White (3rd)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Pipeline SC (10th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	PDA White (3rd)	1–1	20%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Maryland United FC (2nd)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Match Fit Surf (6th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (7th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat May 1	vs	FC DELCO (1st)	0–2	12%
·	Sun May 2	at	Bethesda SC (5th)	0–2	16%
·	Sat May 8	vs	HEX FC Bucks (9th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat May 15	at	PDA Blue (4th)	1–2	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

HEX FC Bucks

-19

0.00

LLLLL

+0.80

+0.02

9.1

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC DELCO (1st)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Bethesda SC (5th)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (7th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	PDA White (3rd)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Match Fit Surf (6th)	2–7

Next: Sat Oct 24 at PDA Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals · Sat Nov 7 at Pipeline SC See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	PDA Blue (4th)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals (8th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Pipeline SC (10th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Maryland United FC (2nd)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Maryland United FC (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	Match Fit Surf (6th)	0–4	4%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	PDA White (3rd)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (7th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Bethesda SC (5th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC DELCO (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sun May 2	vs	PDA Blue (4th)	1–4	4%
·	Sat May 8	at	Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals (8th)	0–2	12%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Pipeline SC (10th)	2–1	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pipeline SC

-36

0.00

LLLLL

+0.91

+0.14

9.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	PDA White (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	PDA Blue (4th)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Bethesda SC (5th)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC DELCO (1st)	0–10
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Maryland United FC (2nd)	0–5
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals (8th)	0–5

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Match Fit Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs HEX FC Bucks · Sat Nov 14 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Match Fit Surf (6th)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	HEX FC Bucks (9th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (7th)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Philadelphia Ukranian Nationals (8th)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	FC DELCO (1st)	0–6	0%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	Maryland United FC (2nd)	0–5	0%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Bethesda SC (5th)	0–5	0%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PDA Blue (4th)	0–6	0%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PDA White (3rd)	0–5	1%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Match Fit Surf (6th)	0–4	2%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (7th)	0–3	5%
·	Sun May 16	at	HEX FC Bucks (9th)	1–2	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.97 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.