Rockford Raptors FC
ECNL Girls · Midwest GU18/19 · 16 teams · Rockford Raptors FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 02:00 PM
Mercyhealth Sportscore Two, Field - TBA (11v11) ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.7 for, 0.8 against · 2.45 expected points)
| Season so far | Rockford Raptors FC | Sporting Blue Valley |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 13th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-3-2 | 2-1-7 |
| Points per game | 1.80 | 0.70 |
| Goals for / game | 2.9 | 0.7 |
| Goals against / game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 5 |
| Form (recent first) | L W D D W | L W L W L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 at Sporting Iowa | 2–0 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green |
| Worst loss | 1–4 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy | 1–6 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.98 | -0.87 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.06 | +0.34 |
Common opponents: Liverpool FC MI — we 2–0; they 1–0. Missouri Rush — we 5–2; they 0–1. St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy — we 1–4; they 0–3. St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green — we 3–0; they 2–0. Eclipse Select Soccer Club — we 4–4; they 1–6. Chicago Inter — we 3–3; they 0–2. Michigan Hawks Magic — we 4–0; they 2–2. Michigan Hawks — we 1–2; they 0–2.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Sporting Blue Valley average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 5 of 10.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 77% chance; likely score 2–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting Blue Valley game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rockford Raptors FC – Sporting Blue Valley) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.91 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.91 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.73 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 1.64 PPG |
8th▼ down 3 | 8th▼ down 3 | 8th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 5%
- 4th 16%
- 5th 19%
- 6th 19%
- 7th 20%
- 8th 18%
- 9th 4%
- 10th <1%
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th
- 15th
- 16th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 2.20 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan Hawks | 3.00 (+1.20) | 1st (2.82) | 27 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Nationals SC | 2.70 (+0.90) | 2nd (2.48) | 23 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Chicago Inter | 2.30 (+0.50) | 3rd (2.15) | 17 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 4 | Gretna Elite Academy | 1.91 (+0.11) | 4th (1.92) | 11 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
How the results connect
74 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Rockford Raptors FC to Sporting Blue Valley through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
19 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.14 · 11th hardest of 16
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM |
Sporting Blue Valley 13th · 2-1-7 · GD -13 |
Home Mercyhealth Sportscore Two |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
2–0 | 2.45 | 1.86 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 02:00 PM |
Kansas City Athletics 6th · 6-3-3 · GD +18 |
Home Mercyhealth Sportscore Two |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–2 | 1.36 | 1.82 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 02:00 PM |
Nationals SC 2nd · 9-0-1 · GD +30 |
Away far trip
Evolution Sportsplex |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.73 | 1.73 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 04:00 PM |
FC Wisconsin 16th · 0-0-11 · GD -45 |
Away far trip
University School Milwaukee · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
4–0 | 2.88 | 1.82 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 16 01:30 PM |
MN Thunder Academy 15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Mercyhealth Sportscore Two |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.09 | 1.83 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Michigan Hawks | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 7 | +33 | 30 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.05 | -0.24 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy · Sun Nov 1 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green · Tue Nov 24 vs Nationals SC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Nationals SC | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 10 | +30 | 27 | 2.70 | WWLWW | -0.57 | +0.75 | 100% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Chicago Inter · Sun Nov 8 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Nov 15 vs MN Thunder Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Chicago Inter | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 16 | +14 | 23 | 2.30 | WWDWW | -0.05 | -0.17 | 83% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Nationals SC · Sun Nov 1 at Liverpool FC MI See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Gretna Elite Academy | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 29 | 11 | +18 | 21 | 1.91 | WLDWD | -0.16 | +0.39 | 40% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Nov 21 vs Sporting Blue Valley See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Rockford Raptors FC | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 29 | 16 | +13 | 18 | 1.80 | WDDWL | +0.06 | -0.14 | 21% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sun Nov 1 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sun Nov 8 at Nationals SC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Kansas City Athletics | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 15 | +18 | 21 | 1.75 | WDWWW | +0.07 | -0.70 | 16% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at FC Wisconsin · Sun Nov 1 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Nov 8 at MN Thunder Academy See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 19 | 1.73 | WLDLW | -0.15 | +0.34 | 5% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Michigan Hawks · Sun Nov 1 vs Michigan Hawks Magic · Fri Nov 20 at Missouri Rush See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 18 | +17 | 17 | 1.70 | DWLLW | +0.27 | -0.72 | 34% | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Gretna Elite Academy · Sun Oct 25 at Sporting Iowa · Sat Oct 31 at Liverpool FC MI See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Missouri Rush | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 16 | 1.33 | DLWLW | -0.19 | +0.73 | 0% | 9.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Fri Nov 20 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy · Sun Jan 17 vs MN Thunder Academy See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Michigan Hawks Magic | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 10 | 0.91 | DLDLL | -0.01 | +0.36 | 0% | 11.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green · Sun Nov 1 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy · Sun Dec 6 vs MN Thunder Academy See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Sporting Iowa | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 36 | -26 | 10 | 0.83 | WLLLL | +0.16 | +0.17 | 0% | 12.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Dec 12 at Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Jan 23 at MN Thunder Academy See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 31 | -20 | 8 | 0.73 | LWLWD | -0.12 | +0.69 | 0% | 13.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Michigan Hawks Magic · Sun Nov 1 vs Michigan Hawks · Sat Nov 7 vs Chicago Inter See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Sporting Blue Valley | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 7 | 0.70 | LWLWL | +0.34 | -0.53 | 0% | 12.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Wisconsin · Sat Nov 7 at MN Thunder Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Liverpool FC MI | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 45 | -36 | 4 | 0.36 | LLWLL | -0.19 | +1.22 | 0% | 15.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Nov 14 vs MN Thunder Academy See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | MN Thunder Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.02 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sun Nov 8 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sat Nov 14 at Liverpool FC MI See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | FC Wisconsin | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 49 | -45 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.20 | +0.33 | 0% | 16.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Nov 21 vs Rockford Raptors FC See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.06 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.