TableChase Clubs

Liverpool FC MI

ECNL Girls · Midwest GU18/19 · 16 teams · Liverpool FC-IA Michigan (all teams)

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14th
1-1-9 record · 11 played
0.36 points per game
-36 goal diff · 9–45
LLWLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 15.0
-0.17 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 09:00 AM

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Liverpool FC MI
14th · 0.36 PPG
vs

Avondale High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–5 (expected goals 1.1 for, 5.6 against · 0.09 expected points)

Season so farLiverpool FC MIEclipse Select Soccer Club
Position14th8th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-95-2-3
Points per game0.361.70
Goals for / game0.83.5
Goals against / game4.11.8
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless72
Form (recent first)L L W L LW L L W D
Biggest win3–1 at FC Wisconsin7–0 vs FC Wisconsin
Worst loss0–9 vs Gretna Elite Academy1–4 vs Nationals SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.66+1.38
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.17+0.24

Common opponents: St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green — we 3–3; they 5–2. St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy — we 0–4; they 3–1. Michigan Hawks Magic — we 1–3; they 7–1. Rockford Raptors FC — we 0–2; they 4–4. Nationals SC — we 0–6; they 1–4. FC Wisconsin — we 3–1; they 7–0. Sporting Blue Valley — we 0–1; they 6–1. Kansas City Athletics — we 0–9; they 2–2.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Eclipse Select Soccer Club score 3.5/game — well above the league's 2.1.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 7 time(s): 0–4 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy, 0–2 at Rockford Raptors FC, 0–1 at Sporting Iowa, 0–9 vs Gretna Elite Academy, 0–6 at Nationals SC, 0–1 at Sporting Blue Valley, 0–9 at Kansas City Athletics.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 2%; a draw (3%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eclipse Select Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Liverpool FC MI – Eclipse Select Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.33 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 15th▼ down 1
Win
0.58 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 14th— holds
Draw
0.42 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 15th▼ down 1
Loss
0.33 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 15th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–5 loss we stay 14th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
15.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th 96%
  16. 16th 3%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.07 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Michigan Hawks 3.00 (+2.64) 1st (2.83) 41 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Nationals SC 2.67 (+2.31) 2nd (2.46) 37 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Chicago Inter 2.22 (+1.86) 3rd (2.08) 30 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Gretna Elite Academy 1.91 (+1.55) 4th (1.93) 25 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Rockford Raptors FC 1.80 (+1.44) 6th (1.84) 23 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Kansas City Athletics 1.75 (+1.39) 7th (1.82) 23 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 1.73 (+1.37) 8th (1.72) 22 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8 Eclipse Select Soccer Club 1.70 (+1.34) 5th (1.87) 22 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
9 Missouri Rush 1.33 (+0.97) 10th (1.26) 16 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
10 Michigan Hawks Magic 0.91 (+0.55) 11th (0.90) 10 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection
11 Sporting Iowa 0.91 (+0.55) 12th (0.81) 10 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection
12 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green 0.73 (+0.37) 14th (0.69) 7 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection
13 Sporting Blue Valley 0.70 (+0.34) 13th (0.81) 7 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection

How the results connect

80 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Liverpool FC MI to Eclipse Select Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
4 even
76 favour them
-5.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 4–4 0–6 4–1 3–3 2–5 3–1 0–7 0–1 1–6 0–4 1–3 1–3 1–7 0–9 2–2 1–3 3–3 2–0 2–2 1–4 Liverpool FC MI 14th Rockford Raptors FC 5th Nationals SC 2nd St. Louis Scott Gal… 12th FC Wisconsin 16th Sporting Blue Valley 13th St. Louis Scott Gal… 7th Michigan Hawks Magic 10th Kansas City Athleti… 6th Chicago Inter 3rd Eclipse Select Socc… 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

18 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 28 Sep 2 Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.15 · 1st hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
Eclipse Select Soccer Club
8th · 5-2-3 · GD +17
Home
Avondale High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
2%
1–5 0.09 0.34 Upside
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM
Chicago Inter
3rd · 6-2-1 · GD +9
Home
Avondale High School
●●●●● Very tough
4%
1–4 0.17 0.33 Upside
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM
MN Thunder Academy
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Avondale High School
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–3 0.36 0.33 Upside
Sat Dec 12
09:00 AM
Michigan Hawks
1st · 10-0-0 · GD +33
Home
UWM Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
0%
0–6 0.03 0.31 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Michigan Hawks 101000 407+33 303.00 WWWWW -0.04 -0.28 100% 1.1
2 Nationals SC 9801 3410+24 242.67 WWWLW -0.22 +0.09 99% 2.0
3 Chicago Inter 9621 2516+9 202.22 DWWDW +0.20 -0.42 72% 4.0
4 Gretna Elite Academy 11632 2911+18 211.91 WLDWD -0.15 +0.32 47% 4.9
5 Rockford Raptors FC 10532 2916+13 181.80 WDDWL +0.05 -0.15 25% 5.9
6 Kansas City Athletics 12633 3315+18 211.75 WDWWW +0.05 -0.65 19% 6.0
7 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 11614 2614+12 191.73 WLDLW -0.16 +0.35 5% 7.2
8 Eclipse Select Soccer Club 10523 3518+17 171.70 DWLLW +0.24 -0.67 31% 5.5
9 Missouri Rush 12516 2328-5 161.33 DLWLW -0.19 +0.73 0% 9.7
10 Michigan Hawks Magic 11245 1323-10 100.91 DLDLL -0.00 +0.32 0% 11.6
11 Sporting Iowa 11317 1031-21 100.91 LWLLL +0.07 +0.32 0% 12.6
12 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green 11227 1131-20 80.73 LWLWD -0.10 +0.63 0% 13.3
13 Sporting Blue Valley 10217 720-13 70.70 LWLWL +0.30 -0.46 0% 12.2
14 Liverpool FC MI 11119 945-36 40.36 LLWLL -0.17 +1.15 0% 15.0
15 MN Thunder Academy 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.01 ——
16 FC Wisconsin 100010 443-39 00.00 LLLLL -0.02 +0.63 0% 16.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.06 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.