FC Wisconsin
ECNL Girls · Midwest GU18/19 · 16 teams · FC Wisconsin Girls (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:45 AM
University School Milwaukee, Stadium ↗ · turf?
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–5 (expected goals 0.6 for, 5.6 against · 0.04 expected points)
| Season so far | FC Wisconsin | Nationals SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 16th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-10 | 8-0-1 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / game | 0.4 | 3.8 |
| Goals against / game | 4.3 | 1.1 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 7 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L L | W L W W W |
| Biggest win | — | 6–0 vs Liverpool FC MI |
| Worst loss | 0–7 vs Michigan Hawks | 0–3 at Kansas City Athletics |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -2.93 | +1.84 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.02 | -0.22 |
Common opponents: Gretna Elite Academy — we 0–4; they 2–1. Sporting Iowa — we 0–3; they 6–1. St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy — we 0–3; they 5–2. St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green — we 0–3; they 4–1. Eclipse Select Soccer Club — we 0–7; they 4–1. Liverpool FC MI — we 1–3; they 6–0. Missouri Rush — we 2–4; they 4–0.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Nationals SC score 3.8/game — well above the league's 2.1.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 7 time(s): 0–4 at Gretna Elite Academy, 0–3 at Sporting Iowa, 0–2 vs Michigan Hawks Magic, 0–7 vs Michigan Hawks, 0–3 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy, 0–3 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green, 0–7 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 1%; a draw (2%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
What a win does
MN Thunder Academy sit 15th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above MN Thunder Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Nationals SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Wisconsin – Nationals SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
16th— holds | 16th— holds | 16th— holds |
| Win 0.27 PPG |
15th▲ up 1 | 15th▲ up 1 | 15th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.09 PPG |
15th▲ up 1 | 15th▲ up 1 | 15th▲ up 1 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
16th— holds | 16th— holds | 16th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–5 loss we stay 16th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th
- 15th 3%
- 16th 97%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 1.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan Hawks | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.83) | 45 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Nationals SC | 2.67 (+2.67) | 2nd (2.46) | 41 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Chicago Inter | 2.22 (+2.22) | 3rd (2.08) | 34 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Gretna Elite Academy | 1.91 (+1.91) | 4th (1.93) | 29 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Rockford Raptors FC | 1.80 (+1.80) | 6th (1.84) | 27 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Kansas City Athletics | 1.75 (+1.75) | 7th (1.82) | 27 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 7 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy | 1.73 (+1.73) | 8th (1.72) | 26 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 8 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 1.70 (+1.70) | 5th (1.87) | 26 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 9 | Missouri Rush | 1.33 (+1.33) | 10th (1.26) | 20 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 10 | Michigan Hawks Magic | 0.91 (+0.91) | 11th (0.90) | 14 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 11 | Sporting Iowa | 0.91 (+0.91) | 12th (0.81) | 14 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 12 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green | 0.73 (+0.73) | 14th (0.69) | 11 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
| 13 | Sporting Blue Valley | 0.70 (+0.70) | 13th (0.81) | 11 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 14 | Liverpool FC MI | 0.36 (+0.36) | 15th (0.31) | 6 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 5 for their projection |
| 15 | MN Thunder Academy | 0.00 (+0.00) | 9th (1.39) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
69 chains · 12 teams
Paths of results that link FC Wisconsin to Nationals SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
18 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.63 · 3rd hardest of 16
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:45 AM |
Nationals SC 2nd · 8-0-1 · GD +24 |
Home University School Milwaukee · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.04 | 0.00 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM |
Kansas City Athletics 6th · 6-3-3 · GD +18 |
Home Mercy Health Sportscore 2 |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–4 | 0.08 | 0.01 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM |
Sporting Blue Valley 13th · 2-1-7 · GD -13 |
Home Mercy Health Sportscore 2 |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
0–1 | 0.72 | 0.06 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 04:00 PM |
Rockford Raptors FC 5th · 5-3-2 · GD +13 |
Home University School Milwaukee · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–4 | 0.09 | 0.07 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 20 08:00 AM |
MN Thunder Academy 15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–4 | 0.15 | 0.07 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan Hawks | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 7 | +33 | 30 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.04 | -0.28 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy · Sun Nov 1 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green · Tue Nov 24 vs Nationals SC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Nationals SC | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 34 | 10 | +24 | 24 | 2.67 | WWWLW | -0.22 | +0.09 | 99% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Wisconsin · Sat Oct 31 vs Chicago Inter · Sun Nov 8 vs Rockford Raptors FC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Chicago Inter | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 16 | +9 | 20 | 2.22 | DWWDW | +0.20 | -0.42 | 74% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting Iowa · Sun Oct 25 at Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Nationals SC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Gretna Elite Academy | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 29 | 11 | +18 | 21 | 1.91 | WLDWD | -0.15 | +0.32 | 46% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Nov 21 vs Sporting Blue Valley See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Rockford Raptors FC | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 29 | 16 | +13 | 18 | 1.80 | WDDWL | +0.05 | -0.15 | 23% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sun Nov 1 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sun Nov 8 at Nationals SC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Kansas City Athletics | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 15 | +18 | 21 | 1.75 | WDWWW | +0.05 | -0.65 | 18% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at FC Wisconsin · Sun Nov 1 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Nov 8 at MN Thunder Academy See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 19 | 1.73 | WLDLW | -0.16 | +0.35 | 5% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Michigan Hawks · Sun Nov 1 vs Michigan Hawks Magic · Fri Nov 20 at Missouri Rush See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 18 | +17 | 17 | 1.70 | DWLLW | +0.24 | -0.67 | 34% | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Gretna Elite Academy · Sun Oct 25 at Sporting Iowa · Sat Oct 31 at Liverpool FC MI See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Missouri Rush | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 16 | 1.33 | DLWLW | -0.19 | +0.73 | 0% | 9.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Fri Nov 20 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy · Sun Jan 17 vs MN Thunder Academy See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Michigan Hawks Magic | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 10 | 0.91 | DLDLL | -0.00 | +0.32 | 0% | 11.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green · Sun Nov 1 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy · Sun Dec 6 vs MN Thunder Academy See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Sporting Iowa | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 10 | 0.91 | LWLLL | +0.07 | +0.32 | 0% | 12.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Chicago Inter · Sun Oct 25 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Dec 12 at Sporting Blue Valley See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 31 | -20 | 8 | 0.73 | LWLWD | -0.10 | +0.63 | 0% | 13.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Michigan Hawks Magic · Sun Nov 1 vs Michigan Hawks · Sat Nov 7 vs Chicago Inter See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | Sporting Blue Valley | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 7 | 0.70 | LWLWL | +0.30 | -0.46 | 0% | 12.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Wisconsin · Sat Nov 7 at MN Thunder Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | Liverpool FC MI | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 45 | -36 | 4 | 0.36 | LLWLL | -0.17 | +1.15 | 0% | 15.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Nov 14 vs MN Thunder Academy See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | MN Thunder Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.01 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sun Nov 8 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sat Nov 14 at Liverpool FC MI See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | FC Wisconsin | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 43 | -39 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | -0.02 | +0.63 | 0% | 16.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting Blue Valley See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.06 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.