St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green
ECNL Girls · Midwest GU13 · 8 teams · St. Louis Scott Gallagher (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:45 AM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.6 against · 1.65 expected points)
| Season so far | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green | Missouri Rush |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-1-1 | 3-0-4 |
| Points per game | 2.38 | 1.29 |
| Goals for / game | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W L | L W L W |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at Sporting Iowa | 5–1 at MN Thunder Academy |
| Worst loss | 0–3 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy | 0–1 at Sporting Iowa |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.42 | +0.32 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.24 | -0.67 |
Common opponents: Sporting Iowa — we 3–0; they 0–1. Gretna Elite Academy — we 1–0; they 3–1.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Missouri Rush score 2.3/game — well above the league's 1.4.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Missouri Rush concede 2.1/game; worst result 0–1 at Sporting Iowa.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 48% / draw 21% / loss 31%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy sit 1st on 2.38 PPG; we are on 2.38.A point moves us above St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Missouri Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green – Missouri Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.44 PPG |
1st▲ up 1 | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.44 PPG |
1st▲ up 1 | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.22 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 2.11 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 4%
- 2nd 63%
- 3rd 27%
- 4th 4%
- 5th 1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.77 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy | 2.38 (+0.00) | 1st (2.42) | A point next game |
How the results connect
8 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green to Missouri Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.05 · 4th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:45 AM |
Missouri Rush 4th · 3-0-4 · GD +1 |
Home WWT Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–1 | 1.65 | 2.29 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 09:45 AM |
Chicago Inter |
Home WWT Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–1 | 1.78 | 2.24 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 10:00 AM |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club |
Home WWT Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–1 | 1.78 | 2.20 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 09:45 AM |
MN Thunder Academy 5th · 1-3-1 · GD -2 |
Home WWT Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
2–1 | 2.05 | 2.19 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 10:45 AM |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 1st · 6-1-1 · GD +21 |
Away WWT Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
0–2 | 0.58 | 2.06 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 09:45 AM |
Gretna Elite Academy 6th · 2-2-4 · GD -6 |
Home WWT Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–0 | 2.20 | 2.07 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 09:45 AM |
Kansas City Athletics 3rd · 5-2-3 · GD +16 |
Home WWT Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.35 | 2.03 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 10:45 AM |
Michigan Hawks Magic |
Home WWT Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–1 | 1.78 | 2.01 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 09:45 AM |
Michigan Hawks |
Home WWT Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–1 | 1.78 | 2.00 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Sporting Iowa 7th · 2-0-5 · GD -11 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–0 | 2.14 | 2.01 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 03:30 PM |
MN Thunder Academy 5th · 1-3-1 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
1–1 | 1.81 | 2.00 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Kansas City Athletics 3rd · 5-2-3 · GD +16 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.09 | 1.95 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
Sporting Blue Valley 8th · 1-3-4 · GD -10 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
1–1 | 1.89 | 1.95 | Swing game |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
Missouri Rush 4th · 3-0-4 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
1–1 | 1.37 | 1.92 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 4 | +21 | 19 | 2.38 | WWWW | -0.15 | -0.12 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Nov 21 at Missouri Rush · Sat Mar 6 vs Rockford Raptors FC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 19 | 2.38 | LWWW | -0.24 | +0.05 | 99% | 2.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Missouri Rush · Sat Nov 7 vs Chicago Inter · Sun Nov 8 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Kansas City Athletics | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 12 | +16 | 17 | 1.70 | WLDLW | -0.11 | -0.01 | 99% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 6 at Missouri Rush · Sat Mar 13 at Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Mar 20 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Missouri Rush | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 9 | 1.29 | WLWL | -0.67 | +0.16 | 71% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green · Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Nov 7 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | MN Thunder Academy | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 | 1.20 | LDWDD | -0.03 | +0.17 | 18% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Wisconsin · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting Iowa · Sat Mar 6 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Gretna Elite Academy | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 8 | 1.00 | DDLLL | +0.33 | +0.05 | 7% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Nov 21 vs Sporting Blue Valley See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Sporting Iowa | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 6 | 0.86 | WWLLL | +0.51 | +0.03 | 3% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Chicago Inter · Sun Oct 25 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at MN Thunder Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Sporting Blue Valley | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 6 | 0.75 | LLDWD | +0.00 | +0.16 | 3% | 6.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy · Sun Oct 25 at Missouri Rush · Sat Nov 21 at Gretna Elite Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.40 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.