St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy
ECNL Girls · Midwest GU13 · 8 teams · St. Louis Scott Gallagher (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:15 PM
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 3.0 for, 0.6 against · 2.66 expected points)
| Season so far | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy | Sporting Blue Valley |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-1-1 | 1-3-4 |
| Points per game | 2.38 | 0.75 |
| Goals for / game | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 0.5 | 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W | D W D L L |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green | 2–0 vs Liverpool FC MI |
| Worst loss | — | 0–5 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.51 | -0.53 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.15 | +0.00 |
Common opponents: St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green — we 3–0; they 2–3.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Sporting Blue Valley concede 2.5/game; worst result 0–5 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 85% chance; likely score 2–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting Blue Valley game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy – Sporting Blue Valley) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.44 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.44 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.22 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.11 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 94%
- 2nd 5%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
5 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy to Sporting Blue Valley through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.12 · 8th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 02:15 PM |
Sporting Blue Valley 8th · 1-3-4 · GD -10 |
Home WWT Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
2–0 | 2.66 | 2.41 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 21 11:00 AM |
Missouri Rush 4th · 3-0-4 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Missouri Rush Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–1 | 2.21 | 2.39 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 09:45 AM |
Rockford Raptors FC |
Home WWT Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
2–0 | 2.43 | 2.39 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 7 09:45 AM |
MN Thunder Academy 5th · 1-3-1 · GD -2 |
Home WWT Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
2–0 | 2.61 | 2.41 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 10:45 AM |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green 2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +6 |
Home WWT Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–0 | 2.23 | 2.40 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 01:15 PM |
Kansas City Athletics 3rd · 5-2-3 · GD +16 |
Home WWT Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–0 | 2.15 | 2.38 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 09:45 AM |
Gretna Elite Academy 6th · 2-2-4 · GD -6 |
Home WWT Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
2–0 | 2.68 | 2.40 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 10:45 AM |
Missouri Rush 4th · 3-0-4 · GD +1 |
Home WWT Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
2–0 | 2.41 | 2.40 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 02:15 PM |
Michigan Hawks |
Home WWT Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
2–0 | 2.43 | 2.40 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 01:15 PM |
Michigan Hawks Magic |
Home WWT Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
2–0 | 2.43 | 2.40 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 03:30 PM |
MN Thunder Academy 5th · 1-3-1 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
2–0 | 2.46 | 2.41 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Sporting Iowa 7th · 2-0-5 · GD -11 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
2–0 | 2.65 | 2.42 | Bank it |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Sporting Blue Valley 8th · 1-3-4 · GD -10 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
2–0 | 2.52 | 2.42 | Bank it |
| Sat May 22 10:45 AM |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club |
Home WWT Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
2–0 | 2.43 | 2.42 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 4 | +21 | 19 | 2.38 | WWWW | -0.15 | -0.12 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Nov 21 at Missouri Rush · Sat Mar 6 vs Rockford Raptors FC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 19 | 2.38 | LWWW | -0.24 | +0.05 | 99% | 2.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Missouri Rush · Sat Nov 7 vs Chicago Inter · Sun Nov 8 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Kansas City Athletics | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 12 | +16 | 17 | 1.70 | WLDLW | -0.11 | -0.01 | 99% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 6 at Missouri Rush · Sat Mar 13 at Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Mar 20 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Missouri Rush | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 9 | 1.29 | WLWL | -0.67 | +0.16 | 71% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green · Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Nov 7 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | MN Thunder Academy | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 | 1.20 | LDWDD | -0.03 | +0.17 | 18% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Wisconsin · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting Iowa · Sat Mar 6 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Gretna Elite Academy | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 8 | 1.00 | DDLLL | +0.33 | +0.05 | 6% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Nov 21 vs Sporting Blue Valley See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Sporting Iowa | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 6 | 0.86 | WWLLL | +0.51 | +0.03 | 3% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Chicago Inter · Sun Oct 25 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at MN Thunder Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Sporting Blue Valley | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 6 | 0.75 | LLDWD | +0.00 | +0.16 | 4% | 6.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy · Sun Oct 25 at Missouri Rush · Sat Nov 21 at Gretna Elite Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.40 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.